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Synthetic biology and its implications for national security

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: BTWC 1972

Mains level: Paper 3- Security challenges associated with synthetic biology

Against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic, the article discusses the national security threat emanating from biological weapons.

Synthetic biology

  • Synthetic biology is a revolutionary technology that can help us manipulate biological organisms and processes for human betterment, especially in treating diseases, by re-engineering cells.
  •  In 2014, the U.S. Department of Defense categorised synthetic biology as one of the six ‘disruptive basic research areas’.
  • Unlike the nuclear domain, the fields of biology or synthetic biology are not regulated internationally despite growing military interest in it.

Risks involved

  • There is the possibility of deliberate misuse of synthetic biology.
  • There is a need to carefully review, especially in the wake of the pandemic, the biosecurity systems in place where such technologies are in use.
  • Accidental leaks of experimental pathogens are another concern.
  • There has been very little focus on threats emanating from biological sources as compared to the focus on nuclear weapons.
  • This is despite the fact that a well-orchestrated biological attack could have serious implications.
  • This was before synthetic biology came into play.
  • A well-planned attack using highly infectious pathogens synthetically engineered in a lab could be disastrous.
  • It would be difficult to pin responsibility on a specific actor if the incubation period is high,

BTWC: An inadequate mechanism for regulation

  • Despite being the weapon of mass destruction (WMD) safety and security attention given to bio-weapons is not at par with nuclear and chemical weapons.
  • There is an international convention and an implementing body for both nuclear and chemical weapons.
  • However, for bio-weapons, all we have is the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) of 1972 with no implementing body.
  • The BTWC does not have a verification clause, nor does it have clearly laid down rules and procedures to guide research in this field.
  • Article 1 of the BTWC bans bio-weapons but research for medical and bio-defence purposes are allowed.
  • While this is understandable, the problem is that there is a thin line between bio-defence research and bio-weapons research. 
  • An Ad Hoc Group set up in 1994 to negotiate a Protocol to enhance the transparency of treaty-relevant biological facilities and activities to help deter violations of the BTWC submitted a report at the Fifth BTWC Review Conference in 2001 but was not accepted by the member states.

Concerns for India

  • India is at a uniquely disadvantaged position in this area given poor disease surveillance, insufficient coordination among various government departments dealing with biosecurity issues, and the pathetic state of the healthcare system.
  • India has multiple institutions dealing with biosafety and biosecurity threats but there is no coordination among them.
  • Given the rising risk of diseases of zoonotic origin, the traditional ministry-wise separation might not be useful.
  •  India, with its porous borders and ill-trained border control institutions, will remain vulnerable to pathogens or dangerous biological organisms.

Way forward

  • Pandemics have also highlighted that the traditional distinction at the international institutional level between biological weapons (a field governed by the BTWC) and diseases (governed by BTWC) may not be useful anymore.
  • There needs to be more conversation between health specialists and bio-weapons/defence specialists.
  • The November 2021 BTWC review conference must take stock of the advances in the field, address the thinning line between biotechnology research and bio-weapons research, and consider international measures for monitoring and verification.

Consider the question “How synthetic biology poses security challenges for India and the rest of the world? Suggest the measures to deal with this challenge.” 

Conclusion

Covid-19 should serve as a wake-up call to give BTWC more teeth in dealing with the bio-weapons with a suitable institutional mechanism.

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Cyber Security – CERTs, Policy, etc

Cyberattacks reveal vulnerabilities in critical infrastructures

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Ransomware

Mains level: Paper 3- Threat of cyberattacks

The article highlights the threat posed by cyberattacks to our critical infrastructure and suggest the ways to deal with the the ever evolving threat.

Civilian targets of cyberattacks

  • Several high-profile cyberattacks were reported from the United States during the past several months.
  • These attacks were all primarily on civilian targets, though each one was of critical importance.
  • Obviously cyber, which is often referred to as the fifth domain/dimension of warfare, is now largely being employed against civilian targets.
  • Most nations have been concentrating till date mainly on erecting cyber defences to protect military and strategic targets, but this will now need to change.

Challenges

  • Defending civilian targets, and more so critical infrastructure, against cyberattacks such as ransomware and phishing is almost certain to stretch the capability and resources of governments across the globe.
  • The distinction between military and civilian targets is increasingly getting erased and the consequences of this could be indeterminate.
  •  In the civilian domain, two key manifestations of the ‘cat and mouse game’ of cyber warfare today, are ransomware and phishing, including spear phishing.
  • Banking and financial services were most prone to ransomware attacks till date, but oil, electricity grids, and lately, health care, have begun to figure prominently.
  • Ransomware attacks have skyrocketed, with demands and payments going into multi-millions of dollars.
  • India figures prominently in this list, being one of the most affected.
  • Compromised ‘health information’ is proving to be a vital commodity for use by cybercriminals.
  • All indications are that cybercriminals are increasingly targeting a nation’s health-care system and trying to gain access to patients’ data.
  • The available data aggravates the risk not only to the individual but also to entire communities.
  • Cybercriminals are becoming more sophisticated, and are now engaged in stealing sensitive data in targeted computers before launching a ransomware attack.
  • Also, today’s cybercriminals, specially those specialising in ransomware and similar attacks, are different from the ordinary  criminals.
  • Many are known to practise ‘reverse engineering’ and employ ‘penetration testers’ to probe high secure networks.

Way forward

  • The need to be aware of the nature of the cyber threat to their businesses and take adequate precautionary measures, has become extremely vital.
  • Cybersecurity essentially hinges on data protection. 
  • As data becomes the world’s most precious commodity, attacks on data and data systems are bound to intensify.
  • With mobile and cloud computing expanding rapidly cybersecurity professionals are now engaged in building a ‘Zero Trust Based Environment’, viz., zero trust on end point devices, zero trust on identity, and zero trust on the network to protect all sensitive data. 
  • Building deep technology in cyber is essential.
  • New technologies such as artificial intelligence, Machine learning and quantum computing, also present new opportunities.
  • Pressure also needs to be put on officials in the public domain, as also company boards, to carry out regular vulnerability assessments and create necessary awareness of the growing cyber threat.

Consider the question “Several high-profile cyberattacks across the world have exposed vulnerabilities in the critical infrastructure of even advanced nations. In light of this, examine the challenges posed by cyberattacks and suggest measures to deal with these challenges.” 

Conclusion

The threat posed by the cyberattacks highlights the need for improved defences against actual, and potential, cyberattacks by all countries across continents.

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Innovation Ecosystem in India

India’s investment in research unsatisfactory: UNESCO report

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: UNESCO Science Report

Mains level: India's expenditure on research and development

While India has made ‘solid progress’ towards the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets concerning the industry, infrastructure, and innovation, the country’s investment in research remains unsatisfactory, the UNESCO Science Report has observed. UNESCO Science Report.

This newscard provides useful data about India’s expenditure on R&D and its adequacy.

UNESCO Science Report

  • The UNESCO Science Report is a global monitoring report published regularly by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization.
  • Every five years, this report maps the latest trends and developments in national and regional policy landscapes, against the backdrop of shifting socio-economic, geopolitical and environmental realities.

Data on research funding in India

  • India has one of the lowest GERD/GDP ratios among the BRICS nations, according to the report.
  • The gross domestic expenditure on research (GERD) has been stagnant at 0.7% of the GDP for years, although, in absolute terms, research expenditure has increased.

Why flag such slowdown?

  • India’s research intensity has been declining since 2014.
  • The Science and Technology Policy of 2003 fixed the threshold of devoting 2% of GDP to research and development (R&D) by 2007.
  • This target date was set back to 2018 in the new Science, Technology and Innovation Policy (2013) then again to 2022 by the Economic Advisory Council of the Prime Minister.
  • In 2020, the task force drafting the country’s new Science and Technology Policy recommended pushing back the target date to a more realistic 2030.

Rise of private enterprises

  • R&D in the government sector has been in steady decline since 2015, whereas the share of private business enterprises in it has shot up to 42%.
  • While in theory this is a positive trend, the R&D is focused primarily on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automotive, and information technology.
  • Even in these industries, it is concentrated in a small number of firms, the report said.
  • It further noted that investment in R&D by foreign multinationals is on the rise, accounting for as much as 16% of private-sector investment in R&D in 2019.
  • The report noted that the majority of the software-related patents were being bagged by MNCs operating from Indian soil, while pharma patents were obtained mostly by domestic firms.

Few successes to count

  • On the bright side is the encouraging increase in scientific publications by Indian researchers on cutting-edge technologies.
  • Total publications have risen from 80,458 in 2011 to 1.61 lakh in 2019.
  • Indian researchers are publishing between 1.5 and 1.8 times the global average on green technologies, complementing the government’s push to expand green energy sources.
  • But then again, patenting by domestic corporations, research institutes, universities, and individuals remain low in India.

Key suggestions

  • The UNESCO Science Report underscores the need for ‘policy bridges’ for fostering a more effective interaction between foreign and local research firms.
  • Given the large number of multinational corporations now engaged in R&D, it is imperative that the host economy benefits from this activity the report said.
  • It also called for improved linkages between the start-up ecosystem and manufacturers to push technological development in sectors where India enjoys a global presence.

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Foreign Policy Watch: India-China

Rare Earth Metals at the heart of China-US rivalry

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Rare earth elements

Mains level: US-China Rivalry

Beijing’s dominance in rare earth minerals, the key to the future of manufacturing, is a cause for concern for the West.

Answer this question from CSP 2011 in the comment box:

Q.What is the difference between a CFL and an LED lamp? 

  1. To produce light, a CFL uses mercury vapor and phosphor while an LED lamp uses semi-conductor material.
    2. The average life span of a CFL is much longer than that of an LED lamp
    3. A CFL is less energy-efficient as compared to an LED lamp.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a) Only 1

(b) 2 and 3 only

(c) 1 and 3 only

(d) 1, 2 and 3

What are Rare Earth Metals?

  • The rare earth elements (REE) are a set of seventeen metallic elements. These include the fifteen lanthanides on the periodic table plus scandium and yttrium.
  • Rare earth elements are an essential part of many high-tech devices.
  • They have a wide range of applications, especially high-tech consumer products, such as cellular telephones, computer hard drives, electric and hybrid vehicles, and flat-screen monitors and televisions.
  • Significant defense applications include electronic displays, guidance systems, lasers, and radar and sonar systems.
  • Rare earth minerals, with names like neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium, are crucial to the manufacture of magnets used in industries of the future, such as wind turbines and electric cars.

Curbing dependence on China

  • At a time of frequent geopolitical friction among those three powers, Washington and Brussels want to avoid this scenario.
  • They are investing in the market for 17 minerals with unique properties that today are largely extracted and refined in China.
  • The expected exponential growth in demand for minerals that are linked to clean energy is putting more pressure on US and Europe to take a closer look.
  • Amid the transition to green energy, in which rare earth minerals are sure to play a role, China’s market dominance is enough to sound an alarm in western capitals.

Why such a move?

  • In 2019, the U.S. imported 80% of its rare earth minerals from China.
  • The EU gets 98% of its supply from China.

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Food Safety Standards – FSSAI, food fortification, etc.

Mustard oil blending is now banned

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Edible Oil imports of India

Mains level: NA

The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India had decided this on March 31. This would end the practice to add other edible oil (like palms, rice bran, etc) to mustard oil.

Why such move?

  • This is good news for mustard farmers whose fortunes were adversely hit as up to a fifth of mustard oil volume could earlier be blends of other oils.
  • But why did India start the practice in the first place? And how has it affected consumer health?

Answer this question from CSP 2018:

Q.Consider the following statements:

  1. The quantity of imported edible oils is more than the domestic production of edible oils in the last five years.
  2. The Government does not impose any customs duty on all the imported edible oils as a special case.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a) 1 only

(b) 2 only

(c) Both 1 and 2

(d) Neither 1 nor 2

Why did the blending begin?

  • The Union health ministry had allowed blending in edible vegetable oil in a notification in 1990.
  • In 1998, Delhi and other north Indian states witnessed the dropsy epidemic — a disease that caused swelling in the body due to the build-up of fluid in tissues.
  • At least 60 people died and 3,000 were hospitalized in the national capital.
  • Researchers believed the consumption of mustard oil caused the disease.

Adulteration is hazardous

  • Upon investigation, it was found to be adulterated with Argemone Mexicana, a kind of weed that grows with yellow flowers.
  • The adulteration, however, was highly suspicious: While mustard is a rabi crop that is cultivated in the winters, Argemone Mexicana grows in April-May.
  • This meant that the possibility of mixing mustard seeds with that Argemone mexicana was rare.
  • The suspicious adulteration stoked fear among the masses.  It started a campaign against the consumption of oil.
  • Several studies have found mustard oil unsafe for consumption.

The 1990 decision

  • Experts have claimed that the blending of mustard oil was not only dangerous to health but also adversely impacted mustard farming.
  • Some groups have also flagged the blending of refined oil.
  • Following the Union health ministry’s 1990 notification allowing for the blending of edible vegetable oil, the FSSAI rolled out regulations in the regard in 2006.
  • Producers and other companies involved in blending were regularised through the Agriculture Produce (Grading and Marking) Act (AGMARK).
  • It also made it mandatory to write the kind of oil used for blending over the packet.
  • The companies involved in blending strongly advocated for the cause, despite reports about its excess and unregulated use. The governments over the years have been tight-lipped about it.

Has blending led to dependence over the import of oil?

  • In 1990-91, India was self-reliant in mustard oil production and produced 98 percent of the oil needed.
  • Blending mustard oil with other edible oils considered to bolster nutritional profile, taste, and quality.
  • Despite the harmful effects, the processing industry took advantage of blending.
  • Cheap palm oil would be blended up to 80 percent in mustard oil sometimes.
  • As a result, profits of mustard farmers dried up, which discouraged them from cultivating the crop.
  • This could be one of the reasons behind India’s increasing dependency on oil imports over the last two decades.

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International Space Agencies – Missions and Discoveries

Polar-Areas Stellar-Imaging in Polarisation High-Accuracy Experiment (PASIPHAE)

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: PASIPHAE

Mains level: Theory of expansion of the universe

The development of a vital instrument PASIPHAE, which will be used in upcoming sky surveys to study stars, is being led by an Indian astronomer.

What is PASIPHAE?

  • PASIPHAE stands for Polar-Areas Stellar-Imaging in Polarisation High-Accuracy Experiment.
  • It is an international collaborative sky surveying project. Scientists aim to study the polarisation in the light coming from millions of stars.
  • The name is inspired by Pasiphae, the daughter of Greek Sun God Helios.
  • The survey will use two high-tech optical polarimeters to observe the northern and southern skies, simultaneously.
  • It will focus on capturing starlight polarisation of very faint stars that are so far away that polarisation signals from there have not been systematically studied.
  • By combining the data, astronomers will perform a maiden magnetic field tomography mapping of the interstellar medium of very large areas of the sky using a novel polarimeter instrument known as WALOP.

Why is PASIPHAE important?

  • Since its birth about 14 billion years ago, the universe has been constantly expanding, as evidenced by the presence of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) radiation which fills the universe.
  • Immediately after its birth, the universe went through a short inflationary phase during which it expanded at a very high rate before it slowed down and reached the current rate.
  • However, so far, there have only been theories and indirect evidence of expansion associated with the early universe.
  • A definitive consequence of the inflationary phase is that a tiny fraction of the CMB radiation should have its imprints in the form of a specific kind of polarisation (known scientifically as a B-mode signal).
  • All previous attempts to detect this signal met with failure mainly due to the difficulty posed by our galaxy, the Milky Way, which emits copious amounts of polarized radiation.
  • Besides, it contains a lot of dust clouds that are present in the form of clusters. When starlight passes through these dust clouds, they get scattered and polarized.

What will PASIPHAE do?

  • The PASIPHAE survey will measure starlight polarisation over large areas of the sky.
  • This data along with distances to the stars will help create a 3-Dimensional model of the distribution of the dust and magnetic field structure of the galaxy.
  • Such data can help remove the galactic polarized foreground light and enable astronomers to look for the elusive B-mode signal.

What is WALOP?

  • Wide Area Linear Optical Polarimeter (WALOP) is an instrument when mounted on two small optical telescopes, that will be used to detect polarized light signals emerging from the stars along high galactic latitudes.
  • The images will simultaneously have the finest of details of a star along with its panoramic background.
  • WALOP will operate on the principle that at any given time, the data from a portion of the sky under observation will be split into four different channels.
  • Depending on the manner in which light passes through the four channels, the polarisation value from the star is obtained.
  • That is, each star will have four corresponding images which when stitched together will help calculate the desired polarisation value of a star.

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Wildlife Conservation Efforts

Operation Olivia to protect Olive Ridley Turtles

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Olive Ridley Turtles

Mains level: NA

Every year, the Indian Coast Guard’s “Operation Olivia”, initiated in the early 1980s, helps protect Olive Ridley turtles as they congregate along the Odisha coast for breeding and nesting from November to December.

Answer this question from CSP 2012 in the comment box:

Q.Which one of the following is the national aquatic animal of India?

(a) Saltwater crocodile

(b) Olive ridley turtle

(c) Gangetic dolphin

(d) Gharial

Olive Ridley Turtles

  • The Olive Ridley (Lepidochelys olivacea) is listed as vulnerable under the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red list.
  • All five species of sea turtles found in India are included in Schedule I of the Indian Wildlife Protection Act, 1972, and in the Appendix I of the CITES, which prohibits trade in turtle products by signatory countries.
  • Odisha has also formulated laws for protecting Olive Ridley turtles, and the Orissa Marine Fisheries Act empowers the Coast Guard as one of its enforcement agencies.
  • Studies have found three main factors that damage Olive Ridley turtles and their eggs — heavy predation of eggs by dogs and wild animals, indiscriminate fishing with trawlers and gill nets, and beach soil erosion.
  • Dense fishing activity along the coasts of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal, especially ocean-going trawlers, mechanized fishing boats, and gill-netters pose a severe threat to turtles.

Their habitats

  • The Olive Ridley has one of the most extraordinary nesting habits in the natural world, including mass nesting called arribadas.
  • The 480-km-long Odisha coast has three arribada beaches at Gahirmatha, the mouth of the Devi river, and in Rushikulya, where about 1 lakh nests are found annually.
  • They generally return to their natal beach, or where they were born, to lay eggs as adults.
  • Mating occurs in the offshore waters of the breeding grounds and females then come ashore to nest, usually several times during a season.
  • They crawl ashore, dig a flask-shaped nest about 1.5 to 2 foot deep, and lay 100 to 150 eggs in each clutch.
  • Hatchlings emerge from their nests together in about seven to 10 weeks.

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New Species of Plants and Animals Discovered

Species in news: Bharitalasuchus Tapani

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Bharitalasuchus Tapani

Mains level: NA

In the mid 20th century, researchers from the Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, carried out extensive studies on rocks of the Yerrapalli Formation in what is now Telangana, uncovering several fossils of Bharitalasuchus Tapani.

Bharitalasuchus Tapani

  • This reptile belongs to a genus and species previously unknown to science. It is named Bharitalasuchus tapani considering Telugu etymology.
  • In the Telugu language, Bhari means huge, Tala means head, and Suchus is the name of the Egyptian crocodile-headed deity.
  • The species is named after paleontologist Tapan Roy Chowdhury in honour of his contribution to Indian vertebrate paleontology and especially his extensive work on the Yerrapalli Formation tetrapod fauna.

Details of the reptile

  • The reptile belonged to a family of extinct reptiles named Erythrosuchidae.
  • A precise identification had not been possible earlier because the family was not known from other examples in India.
  • It was neglected because the fossil specimen was not as complete as those of other erythrosuchids from other countries.
  • The team notes that tapani were robust animals with big heads and large teeth, and these probably predated other smaller reptiles.
  • They were approximately the size of an adult male lion and might have been the largest predators in their ecosystems.

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New Species of Plants and Animals Discovered

Species in news: Pyrostria Laljii

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Pyrostria Laljii

Mains level: NA

A 15-meter-tall tree that belongs to the genus of the coffee family has recently been discovered from the Andaman Islands by a team of researchers from India and the Philippines.

Observe this PYQ from CSP 2016:

Q.Recently, our scientists have discovered a new and distinct species of banana plant which attains a height of about 11 metres and has orange-coloured fruit pulp. In which part of India has it been discovered?

(a) Andaman Islands

(b) Anamalai Forests

(c) Maikala Hills

(d) Tropical rain forests of northeast

Pyrostria Laljii

  • The new species, Pyrostria laljii, is also the first record of the genus Pyrostria in India.
  • Plants belonging to the genus Pyrostria are usually found in Madagascar but the recently discovered species is new to science.
  • The tree is distinguished by a long stem with a whitish coating on the trunk, and oblong-obovate leaves with a cuneate base, and was first reported from South Andaman’s Wandoor forest.
  • Pyrostria laljii has been assessed as ‘Critically Endangered’ based on the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List criteria.

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Coronavirus – Health and Governance Issues

Challenges in Vaccinating All

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Not much

Mains level: Paper 2- Dealing with vaccine hesitancy

Reoriented vaccine policy

  • The foremost challenge in vaccination in India has been a supply deficit.
  • Announcing a reoriented vaccine policy recently, the Prime Minister announced a coherent path forward.
  • Starting from June 21, the Union government will take charge of 75 per cent of the total procurement, and provide vaccines to states at no cost.
  • The government has reserved 30 crore vaccines with Hyderabad-based Biological-E by facilitating an advance payment of Rs 1,500 crore.
  • Fortnightly updates on the supply of vaccines to states are being taken to ensure transparency and efficiency in planning.

Dealing with two complex challenges

  • Two other complex challenges that need immediate focus are vaccine hesitancy and the much-discussed digital divide in the country.

1) Challenge of vaccine hesitancy

  • Contextualised and curated approaches are crucial.
  • The WHO has put forth the BeSD (behavioural and social drivers) vaccination model, which emphasises “motivation” as the vanguard of human psychology during a vaccination drive.
  • Vaccination coverage could be increased by incentivising and motivating citizens.
  • Unfortunately, in India, misinformation, disinformation and misplaced beliefs have led to fears about the potential harmful effects of vaccines.
  • The diversity of India necessitates community engagement at the local level to counter this narrative of misinformation.
  • A successful information campaign requires dissemination through mediums that invoke trust.
  • Local languages and dialects should be used to engage people via local radio, television channels and regional newspapers.
  • Another network that can be leveraged at the district level is that of the ASHA workers and the auxiliary nurse-midwives.
  • These are trusted local figures.

2) Bridging the digital divide

  • It is important to introduce solutions that bridge the digital divide.
  • A toll-free helpline number 1075 has been activated for those without internet.
  • Similarly, districts can explore missed-call campaigns, which could ensure that minimal infrastructure is being optimised for processing high-volume user requests.
  • Even though the reported adverse events following immunisation stands at only 0.012 per cent, dedicated representatives can provide vaccine-related pre- and post-counselling to individuals.

Way forward

Startups could help bridge digital divide

  • The devastating effects of the second wave in rural areas have prompted fintech startups to enable vaccine registration.
  • PayNearby has helped over 8 lakh citizens register through its network of agents called “digital pradhans”, who are present in kirana, ration, mobile and hardware stores, frequented regularly by rural users. 

Use points of contact for publicising benefits of vaccine and registration

  • Almost 81 crore beneficiaries, 75 per cent of whom are in rural areas, procure ration from 5,46,165 fair price shops across India.
  • There are over 11 lakh business correspondent outlets in India working mostly in rural areas to advance the mission of financial inclusion.
  • A network of around 1,54,965 post offices (as on March 2017) exists in India of which 1,39,067 are in the rural areas.
  • Such points of contact can be leveraged as dedicated units for publicising the benefits of Covid vaccines and as physical locations for vaccine registration

Direct engagement with citizens

  • The Prime Minister recently described district officials as “field commanders” in our efforts against Covid.
  • This ambit should move beyond just the district bureaucracy to the extensive network of public services. 
  • A stellar example of direct engagement also stems from the success of the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan.
  • Direct engagement with citizens contributed greatly to the operational success of previous immunisation campaigns like the pulse polio programme.

Consider the question “What are the factors responsible for vaccine hesitency? Suggest the ways to deal with it.”

Conclusion

Thinking local and utilising established networks to create culturally resonant messages is the need of the hour to reduce vaccine hesitancy, bridge the digital divide and achieve vaccine saturation.

 

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G20 : Economic Cooperation ahead

Can the G-7 give new direction to globalisation?

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: G-7 countries

Mains level: Paper 2- Relevance of G-7

The article highlights the challenges associated with the globalisation and important role G-7 can play in dealing with these challenges.

The context that makes this G-7 Summit significant

  • The most significant expectation of the summit is that it will help determine the shape of globalisation.
  • There has been much discussion of the possibility of the G-7 pushing for global coordination on minimum corporate taxation.
  • The summit also seeks to redefine the broader relationship between states and markets in three ways.

Redefining the relationship between states and market in 3 ways

1) States reasserting the control over markets

  • States are reasserting control over the terms on which markets operate.
  • The idea of Neoliberalism did convey the idea that states should follow where the market leads, or step in only where there is a market failure.
  • However, this account of the relationship between states and markets had four harmful consequences.
  • 1) It provided a misleading picture of what makes economies vibrant.
  • 2) It led to a sense of loss of collective control over our economic future.
  • 3) It led to great inequality.
  • 4) In some fields like technology, it created new forms of corporate power.
  • To reverse some of these consequences, some coordination at the global level on taxation, or treatment of technology monopolies etc is required.

2) Global interdependence cannot be managed without global public goods

  • At one level the global roles of the G-7 or even the G-20 were something like the political steering committee for global capitalism.
  • Their most useful political roles were during the financial crisis, when global financial coordination was required.
  • But there was relatively little attention to the systemic vulnerabilities that globalisation might create.
  • These could be vulnerabilities because of the way supply chains were distributed, or those that arose from the creation of winners and losers within globalisation.
  • Most importantly, there was short shrift given to global public goods like health.
  • The Covid crisis has reminded us of all of these vulnerabilities.
  • The commitment of G-7 to provide one billion vaccine doses is a welcome step.
  • But whether this crisis-driven commitment will translate into an enduring and just framework for providing global public goods on health and environment remains to be seen.

3) Geopolitical context

  •  There are two geopolitical “cold wars” that cast a shadow on the G-7.
  • The first involves China.
  • In the context of rising geopolitical tensions with China, greater coordination and unity of purpose amongst the G-7 will become more important.
  • The second is a threat of authoritarian disruption.
  • Greater global disarray strengthens the possibility of giving political support to these political tendencies.
  • It is important, therefore, to demonstrate that the G-7 countries are part of a functional democratic civilisation.

Challenges ahead

  • Despite the directional changes, many of the central distributive conflicts that beset globalisation are likely to continue.
  • The talk of global public goods works only in a context where the advanced economies are at the receiving end.
  • Take the G-7 proposal for the coordination of taxation.
  • In principle, this is not a bad idea, if it can close off tax havens and prevent a global race to the bottom.
  • However, it is sobering to read the Tax Justice Network’s “The State of Tax Justice Report” 2020.
  • According to this report, the United States, Netherlands and United Kingdom are three of the top five countries (along with Cayman Islands and Luxembourg) responsible for tax losses inflicted on other countries.
  • The US, Switzerland, Singapore and Hong Kong are amongst the highest on the Financial Secrecy Index.
  • So, the visible corporate tax rate, or taxing at point of sales, may just be the window dressing the global tax problem that allows countries to hold onto their privileges.
  • Similarly, on climate change. There is a lot of encouraging talk of ambitious targets, investment-led transformations.
  • Intelligently done, this might be for the good.
  • But it could also repeat the familiar pattern of regulation serving to preserve the dominance of advanced economies.
  • There is also, in the talk of a new global economic order, the curious absence of discussions on finance.
  • But if one is looking at potential sources of vulnerability, the ability to create winners and losers, and possible threats to global resilience, then regulation and coordination of global finance deserve more attention.

Consider the question “What are the vulnerabilities associated with globalisation. Suggest the solutions to deal with these vulnerabilities.”

Conclusion

If the G-7 wants to truly exercise more leadership, it will have to convince the world that all its wonderful new principles, resilience, inclusion, global public goods, are not simply ruses to serve only the interests of the developed world.

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Forest Conservation Efforts – NFP, Western Ghats, etc.

Protection of ‘Heritage Trees’ in Maharashtra

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Heritage trees

Mains level: Read the attached story

The Maharashtra government will make amendments to the Maharashtra (Urban Areas) Protection and Preservation of Trees Act of 1975, to introduce provisions for the protection of ‘heritage trees’.

What are Heritage Trees?

  • Under the proposed amendment, a tree with an estimated age of 50 years or more shall be defined as a heritage tree.
  • It may belong to specific species, which will be notified from time to time.
  • Experts believe that in addition to the age, the state climate change department should also consider a tree’s rarity, its botanical, historical, religious, mythological and cultural importance in defining a heritage tree.
  • The local Tree Authority will have to ensure tree census to be carried out every five years along with counting of heritage trees

How is the age of the tree determined?

  • The most common method of determining the age of the tree is Dendrochronology – or tree-ring dating also called growth rings.
  • Each year, roughly a tree adds to its girth, the new growth is called a tree ring. By counting the rings of a tree, the age can be determined.
  • However, the process is invasive. To analyse the rings, core samples are extracted using a borer that’s screwed into the tree and pulled out, bringing with it a straw-size sample of wood.
  • The hole in the tree is then sealed to prevent disease.

Why was the concept of heritage tree introduced?

  • A heritage tree will get special protection.
  • Crucially, the tree’s age will determine the number of trees to be planted as part of the compensatory plantation – that is anyone cutting a heritage tree will need to plant trees in the same numbers as the cut tree’s age.
  • According to the current Compensatory Plantation in the state, one sapling has to be planted for each tree that is cut.
  • In Mumbai, as per the Tree Authority set up in 1976, to help in regulating the felling of trees and providing for the planting of an adequate number of new trees, the compensation ratios are 1:3.

Changes with the amendment

  • As per the amendment, the number of trees planted will be equal to the age of the heritage tree that is cut.
  • For instance, if a 52-year-old tree is to be felled, then the party felling the tree will have to plant 52 trees in compensation, with each compensatory tree at least 6-8 ft in height at the time of planting.
  • The organization planting the compensation trees will also have to ensure the survival of the plantation for seven years and geo-tag the trees.
  • Such plantations can be carried out either in the same plot or a common amenity plot.
  • Through the introduction of a heritage tree, the state environment wants to discourage the cutting of heritage trees.
  • The amendment has the fine for illegal felling of trees from a maximum of Rs 5,000 to Rs 1 lakh per tree.

What is the economic value of the tree?

  • In case compensatory plantation is not possible, the tree feller has to pay compensation for the economic valuation of the trees being felled.
  • While the state government has not defined the economic value of the tree, experts say that the amount of oxygen that a tree releases into the environment should determine its economic value.
  • A realistic assessment of the economic value of a tree, which may be permitted to fell, concerning its value to the environment and its longevity, about factors such as:

the production of oxygen and carbon sequestration, soil conservation, protection of flora/fauna, its role in habitat and ecosystem integrity and any other ecologically relevant factor, distinct from timber/wood

Tree Authority formation

  • The amendments also make room for the formation of the Maharashtra State Tree Authority and also tree authority in local civic bodies and councils.
  • The Tree Authority is tasked with “increasing the tree cover in urban areas and protecting the existing ones.” Experts shall be a part of the local tree authority.
  • Their knowledge and expertise will form the basis of decisions taken up by the authority.
  • A proposal to cut more than 200 trees of age 5 years or more, will be referred to the state tree authority.
  • The local TA will have to ensure that the project is not sub-divided into smaller parts to keep the number of trees below the defined threshold.
  • Ensure preparation of a tree plan and should aspire over the years to have 33 percent green belt in their area.

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Urban Transformation – Smart Cities, AMRUT, etc.

Delhi’s Master Plan 2041

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Not much

Mains level: Master Plan 2041 for Delhi

The Delhi Development Authority gave its preliminary approval to the draft Master Plan for Delhi 2041.

What is the Master Plan 2041 for Delhi?

  • The draft of the Master Plan seeks to “foster a sustainable, liveable and vibrant Delhi by 2041”.
  • It includes analysis, recommendations, and proposals keeping in mind the population, economy, housing, transportation, community facilities, and land use.
  • The current master plan of Delhi — Master Plan 2021 — expires this year.
  • The first volume is an introduction, providing an overview of Delhi in present times, its global and regional positioning, estimates of population, and projections for 2041.
  • The draft MPD presents a plan for the city for the next 20 years.

What are the main focus areas of the master plan?

  • In the housing sector, it talks about incentivizing rented accommodation by inviting private players and government agencies to invest more, keeping in mind the large migrant population.
  • It addresses parking problems and suggests a ‘user pays principle, which means users of all personal motor vehicles, except for non-motorized ones, have to pay for authorized parking facilities, spaces and streets.

How does the master plan tackle environmental pollution?

  • The draft plan aims to minimize vehicular pollution through key strategies, including a switch to greener fuels for public transport and the adoption of mixed-use of transit-oriented development (also known as TOD).
  • It also addresses improving the quality of water, which is taken from the Yamuna river as well as various lakes, natural drains and baolis.
  • The draft lays a clear boundary of the buffer zone near the Yamuna river and explores how to develop it.
  • As per the plan, a green buffer of 300-metre width shall be maintained wherever feasible along the entire edge of the river.

How is it different from the 2021 Master Plan?

  • The world has gone through a drastic change due to the pandemic, and the growing population has led to shrinking spaces and unemployment.
  • The 2041 plan aims to develop common community spaces to provide refuge spots, common kitchens and quarantine space in an emergency.
  • To improve the nighttime economy, the plan focuses on cultural festivals, bus entertainment, metro, sports facilities, and retail stores included in Delhi Development Authority (DDA)’s Night Life Circuit plan.
  • It also proposes to reduce vulnerability to airborne epidemics through decentralized workspaces, mandatory creation of open areas, better habitat design and green-rated developments to reduce dependence on mechanical ventilation systems.

What challenges will its implementation face?

  • The master plan on paper looks like a perfect document for the city’s progress.
  • However, when the implementing agencies try to replicate it on the ground, they face challenges like confrontation from political wings, lack of resources and funds, corruption in different departments, lack of political and bureaucratic will and multiplicity of agencies.
  • For instance, despite talks of increasing surface parking, removing junk vehicles, imposing fines for dumping debris, garbage burning, and segregation of waste, a lot of these things could never be implemented.
  • In some cases like, increasing parking or increasing its charges, there is resistance from politicians due to vote-bank politics. In other cases, lack of funds and improper implementation mar the projects.

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International Space Agencies – Missions and Discoveries

EnVision Mission to Venus

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: EnVision Mission

Mains level: Interplanetary missions

Following NASA’s footsteps, the European Space Agency (ESA) announced that it has selected EnVision as its next orbiter that will visit Venus sometime in the 2030s.

Last week, NASA selected two missions to the planet Venus, Earth’s nearest neighbour. The missions called DAVINCI+ and VERITAS have been selected based on their potential for scientific value and the feasibility of their development plans.

What is EnVision?

  • EnVision is an ESA-led mission with contributions from NASA. It is likely to be launched sometime in the 2030s.
  • The earliest launch opportunity for EnVision is 2031, followed by 2032 and 2033.
  • Once launched on an Ariane 6 rocket, the spacecraft will take about 15 months to reach Venus and will take 16 more months to achieve orbit circularization.
  • The spacecraft will carry a range of instruments to study the planet’s atmosphere and surface, monitor trace gases in the atmosphere and analyses its surface composition.

What are other such missions?

  • EnVision will follow another ESA-led mission to Venus called ‘Venus Express’ (2005-2014) that focused on atmospheric research and pointed to volcanic hotspots on the planet’s surface.
  • Other than this, Japan’s Akatsuki spacecraft has also been studying the planet’s atmosphere since 2015.

Why are scientists interested in studying Venus?

  • At the core of the ESA’s mission is the question of how Earth and Venus evolved so differently from each other considering that they are roughly of the same size and composition.
  • Venus is the hottest planet in the solar system because of the heat that is trapped by its thick cloud cover.
  • Last year, a team of scientists reported that they had found phosphine gas (a chemical produced only through biological processes) in the atmosphere of Venus.
  • This triggered excitement in the scientific community that some life forms might be supported by the planet.
  • But the existence of life on the planet is nearly impossible given the high temperatures of Venus and its acidic atmosphere.

Back2Basics: Venus Planet

  • For those on Earth, Venus is the second-brightest object in the sky after the moon.
  • It appears bright because of its thick cloud cover that reflects and scatters light.
  • But while Venus, which is the second closest planet to the Sun, is called the Earth’s twin because of their similar sizes, the two planets have significant differences between them.
  • For one, the planet’s thick atmosphere traps heat and is the reason that it is the hottest planet in the solar system, despite coming after Mercury, the closest planet to the Sun.
  • Surface temperatures on Venus can go up to 471 degrees Celsius, which is hot enough to melt lead.
  • Further, Venus moves forward on its orbit around the Sun but spins backwards around its axis slowly.
  • This means on Venus the Sun rises in the west and sets in the East.
  • One day on Venus is equivalent to 243 Earth days because of its backward spinning, opposite to that of the Earth’s and most other planets.
  • Venus also does not have a moon and no rings.

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Cyber Security – CERTs, Policy, etc

What is Fastly Internet Outage?

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Content delivery network (CDN)

Mains level: Need for data localization

Several big websites around the world went down for about half an hour because of a major issue with the content delivery network (CDN) of American cloud computing services provider Fastly.

Global internet outage: Which websites were affected?

  • com, Reddit, Twitch, Spotify, Pinterest, Stack Overflow, GitHub, gov.uk, Hulu, HBO Max, Quora, PayPal, Vimeo and Shopify are some of the big names.
  • Prominent news websites impacted were the Financial Times, the Guardian, the New York Times, CNN, and Verge, to name some.
  • Most users would have seen a 503 error when trying to access these websites, indicating that the browser was not able to access the server.

What is Fastly?

  • Fastly is a cloud computing services provider, which offers CDN, edge computing, cloud storage services.
  • All of its geographies, including the three stations it has in India — Chennai, Mumbai and New Delhi — were suffering from “Degraded Performance”.

Answer this PYQ from CSP 2018:

Q.The terms ‘WannaCry, Petya, Eternal Blue’ sometimes mentioned news recently are related to

(a) Exoplanets

(b) Crypto currency

(c) Cyber attacks

(d) Mini satellites

What is a CDN?

  • A CDN refers to a geographically distributed group of servers that work together to provide fast delivery of Internet content.
  • They house content close to the telecom service providers’ networks.
  • Majority of web traffic across the world today is routed through CDNs.
  • Platforms such as Netflix, Facebook, Amazon — ones with large quantities of data held in global libraries — host their geographically relevant content closer to where that content is to be consumed.
  • This ensures the end customer is able to access the content faster.
  • Another reason companies rely on these CDNs is to help protect their sites against traffic spikes, distributed denial of service (DDOS) attacks, etc.

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[pib] Aspirational Districts Programme

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Aspirational Districts Programme

Mains level: Success of the ADP

In an independent appraisal report released today, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) India has lauded the Aspirational Districts Programme (ADP) as a very successful model of local area development.

Aspirational Districts Programme

  • Launched in January 2018, the ‘Transformation of Aspirational Districts’ initiative aims to remove this heterogeneity through a mass movement to quickly and effectively transform these districts.
  • The broad contours of the programme are Convergence (of Central & State Schemes), Collaboration (of Central, State level ‘Prabhari’ Officers & District Collectors), and Competition among districts driven by a spirit of mass Movement.
  • With States as the main drivers, this program will focus on the strength of each district, identify low-hanging fruits for immediate improvement, measure progress, and rank districts.

Selection of districts

  • A total of 117 Aspirational districts have been identified by NITI Aayog based upon composite indicators.
  • These include Health & Nutrition, Education, Agriculture & Water Resources, Financial Inclusion and Skill Development and Basic Infrastructure which have an impact on Human Development Index.

Weightage has been accorded to these districts as below:

  • Health & Nutrition (30%)
  • Education (30%)
  • Agriculture & Water Resources (20%)
  • Financial Inclusion & Skill Development (10%)
  • Basic Infrastructure (10%)

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Promoting Science and Technology – Missions,Policies & Schemes

[pib] Sub-Mission on Agricultural Mechanization (SMAM)

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Sub-Mission on Agricultural Mechanization (SMAM)

Mains level: Need for Agricultural Mechanization

To empower the farmers through the Sub-Mission on Agricultural Mechanization (SMAM) scheme, the government has released funds for various activities of Farm Mechanization.

Sub-Mission on Agricultural Mechanization (SMAM)

  • The Agri ministry has launched this mission in 2014-15 with the objectives of increasing the reach of farm mechanization to small and marginal farmers and to the regions & difficult areas where farm power availability is low.
  • Under this scheme, it has been proposed to established Village Level farm Machinery Bank (VLFMB), Custom Hiring Centres (CHC) and High Tech Hubs (HTH) in order to facilitate easy availability of farm implements and machinery for hire by farmers.

Why need such a scheme?

  • Agricultural Mechanization plays a vital role in optimizing the use of land, water energy resources, manpower and other inputs like seeds, fertilizers, pesticides etc to maximize the productivity of the available cultivable area and make agriculture a more profitable and attractive profession for rural youth.
  • It is one of the key drivers for the sustainable development of the agriculture sector.
  • Sustainable Agriculture mechanization growth will require appropriate and precision agricultural machinery adequately supported by the latest technology.

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Air Pollution

[pib] Aerosol Nucleation

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Aerosol Nucleation

Mains level: Air pollution

Scientists tracing the concentration, size and evolution of aerosol particles smaller than 3 nanometers at an urban location in India have found the frequent formation of sub-3nm aerosol particles in the atmosphere.

What is Aerosol Nucleation?

  • The formation of small molecular clusters of sub-3nm size is technically called aerosol nucleation, and subsequent growth of these newly formed clusters to the large sizes is called atmospheric new particle formation (NPF).
  • NPF occurs everywhere in the terrestrial troposphere, and therefore it is a large source of aerosol numbers to the atmosphere.
  • Though extensively studied globally using field observations, laboratory experiments and modelling approach, it is largely unexplored in India.

What has the new research found?

  • The research showed that a pool of sub-3nm particles is often present in the atmosphere, but how fast these clusters grow depends on various factors.
  • The scientists observed that only half of these events showed newly formed molecular clusters growing past 10 nm size.
  • Thus particle size distributions display a conventional banana-shaped aerosol growth, which is indicative of regional NPF event.

Role of Sulphur

  • The team found a strong positive correlation between sub-3nm particle concentrations and sulphuric acid concentrations, confirming the potential role of sulfuric acid in the formation of sub-3nm particles.
  • While NPF often starts with sulphuric acid in the atmosphere, sulphuric acid alone fails to explain observed particle formation and growth rates in the atmosphere.
  • Other vapours such as ammonia, amines and organics play a crucial role in the growth of newly formed particles.
  • This has critical importance as a major fraction of these newly formed particles can reach to sizes of cloud condensation nuclei where they have climatic impacts.

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Industrial Sector Updates – Industrial Policy, Ease of Doing Business, etc.

Why companies are adopting sustainable business models?

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Not much

Mains level: Paper 3- Sustainability pressure on companies

The article discusses the three undercurrents that are pushing companies to adopt more sustainable business models.

Demand for sustainable business practices

  • Companies across the world are facing pressure to adopt sustainable business practices.
  • In a global first, a judicial court in the Netherlands has invoked the principles of human rights obligations of companies to rule that the Royal Dutch Shell will have to further accelerate its targeted reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission.
  •  The shareholders of Chevron forced upon the management a resolution to set strict emission targets from the products that it sells.
  • The German cabinet approved a law that requires all coal-fired plants to close down much earlier than the target date set only eighteen months ago.
  • In India, the SEBI came out with a new set of Business Responsibility and Sustainability Reporting (BRSR).
  • BRSR will be mandatory for the top 1,000 companies from the next year.

Three factors driving the change

1) Investors’ pull

  • Workers saving for their pension do not want their investments to go to companies whose tailings-dam can burst and cause hundreds of death in Brazil.
  • Investors also realise the long-term business risk of companies if sustainability isn’t a focus.

2) Governments’/regulators’ push

  • In 2021, the US announced that it will cut emissions by over 50% by 2030.
  • Japan has almost doubled its 2030 targets.
  • The UK has now announced a target to cut 40-45% by the same time, from the earlier goal of a 30%-cut.
  • China has announced that its emissions will peak by 2030, and by 2060, it would have net zero emissions.
  • India is expected by the global community to announce net-zero by 2050.
  • All of these have huge implications not only for hydrocarbon companies but across multiple sectors.
  • Banking regulators are asking banks to include climate in the risk assessment of the companies they lend to.
  • Insurance and pension regulators are raising similar questions in their sector.

3) Measurement/reporting

  • When sustainability debates picked up, many organisations like CDP, CDSB, PRI, GRI, TCFD, IMP, IIRC, SASB, etc, sprang up to fulfill the need for sustainability reporting.
  • Often, these worked at cross purposes and in competition with each other, leading to ‘greenwashing’ and other malpractices and creating confusion in the minds of investors.
  • But, the realisation that the investors need a set of comparable and verifiable reporting formats has gathered momentum in the past one year.
  • The last excuse to avoid focus on sustainable business practices will also wither away.

Consider the question “Financial capital is just one of the multiple capitals a successful company must possess. This brings sustainability into the focus. In light of this, discuss the factors that are forcing the companies to factor in the sustainability in their business models.”

Conclusion

The decades-old debate on environmental damage and sustainability is now reaching a decisive phase. Companies need to factor in the sustainability aspect in their profit calculus to remain relevant in changing world.


Source:

https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/the-sustainability-heat-on-companies/2268494/

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Economic Indicators and Various Reports On It- GDP, FD, EODB, WIR etc

What Centre must do to meet the economic challenges

Note4Students

From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :

Prelims level: Tax buoyancy

Mains level: Paper 3- Dealing with the challenge of Covid second wave

The article takes an overview of the fiscal and monetary challenges posed by the second covid wave and suggest ensuring the availability of liquidity.

GDP projections need to be re-examined

  •  According to NSO’s provisional estimates for 2020-21, the annual contraction in real GDP turned out to be 7.3 per cent.
  • The erstwhile GDP growth projections for 2021-22 are being re-examined to take into account the adverse impact of the second wave of the pandemic.
  • The RBI has revised down its 2021-22 real GDP growth forecast to 9.5 per cent.
  • Some other recent estimates (ICRA) indicate the feasibility of a 9 per cent growth.
  •  It is also important to consider nominal GDP growth for 2021-22 since that would be a critical determinant of fiscal prospects. 
  • In the light of supply-side and cost-push pressures, the RBI has projected CPI inflation at 5.1 per cent.
  • The nominal GDP growth may be projected at 13.4 per cent, that is, 1 percentage point lower than Centre’s budget assumption of 14.4 per cent.

Fiscal aggregates

  • The Controller General of Accounts’ data indicate a gross tax revenues (GTR) of Rs 20.2 lakh crore and net tax revenue of Rs 14.2 lakh crore for 2020-21. 
  • The likely growth in GTR for 2021-22 may be derived by applying a buoyancy of 0.9.
  • This gives a tax revenue growth of 12 per cent, translating that to projected gross and net tax revenues for 2021-22 would mean Rs 22.7 lakh crore and Rs 15.8 lakh crore respectively. 
  • This implies some additional net tax revenues to the Centre amounting to Rs 0.35 lakh crore as compared to the budgeted magnitudes.
  • The main expected shortfall may still be in non-tax revenues and non-debt capital receipts.
  • According to the CGA numbers, their 2020-21 levels are respectively Rs 2.1 lakh crore and Rs 0.57 lakh crore.
  • Applying a growth rate of 15 per cent on these, a shortfall in 2021-22 to the tune of Rs 1.3 lakh crore may arise in non-tax revenues and non-debt capital receipts.

So, how much would be the Fiscal Deficit?

  • The growth rates of non-tax revenues and and non-debt capital receipts average to a little lower than 15 per cent during the five years preceding 2020-21.
  • In any case, the large budgeted growth of 304 per cent in non-debt capital receipts for 2021-22 seems quite unlikely because of the challenges posed by the second wave.
  • Taking into account RBI’s recently announced dividend of Rs 0.99 lakh crore to the Centre, the main shortfall may be in non-debt capital receipts.
  • Together, the overall shortfall in total non-debt receipts may be limited to about Rs 0.9 lakh crore, or 0.4 per cent of estimated nominal GDP.
  • This indicates that a slippage, if any, in the budgeted fiscal deficit of 6.7 per cent of GDP, as revised in view of the recently released GDP data, could be a limited one.

Way forward: Prioritise three heads

  • First, an increase in the provision for income support measures for the vulnerable rural and urban population.
  • Second, in light of the recent decision, the budgeted expenditure on vaccination of Rs 0.35 lakh crore ought to be augmented, at the very least, doubled.
  • Third, additional capital expenditure for select sectors, particularly healthcare, should also be provided for.
  • Together these additional expenditures would amount to Rs 1.7 lakh crore, about 0.8 per cent of the estimated nominal GDP.
  • Thus, we need to plan for a fiscal deficit of about 7.9 per cent of GDP.

Borrowing programme would need RBIs support

  • The Centre has announced borrowings of Rs 1.6 lakh crore to meet the shortfall in the GST compensation cess.
  • Given the higher fiscal deficit, it would need to add to its borrowing programme another Rs 2.6 lakh crore, taking the total borrowing, including GST compensation, to about Rs 16.3 lakh crore, from Rs 12.05 lakh crore now.
  • Borrowing by states would be in addition to this.
  • The net result will be an unprecedented borrowing programme by the Centre which may require RBI’s support.
  • RBI is injecting liquidity into the system through various channels.
  • Banks have sufficient liquidity to subscribe to new debt.
  • This is indirect monetisation of debt.
  • This is not new, but the scale is much higher.
  • Direct monetisation is best avoided.
  • The success of the borrowing programme of the Centre depends on the support provided by the RBI.
  • The support need not be direct.
  • It can be indirect as is currently happening. RBI is injecting liquidity into the system in a big way.
  • Despite this, the money multiplier is low.
  • This may be attributed to two reasons: Low credit expansion and larger leakage in the form of currency.
  • The potential for money supply growth is large.
  • The discussion in the monetary policy statement on inflation is focused entirely on supply availability and bottlenecks in the distribution of commodities.
  • The output gap is certainly relevant.
  • But equally relevant in an analysis of inflation is liquidity in the system, and its impact on output and prices with lags.
  • The injection of liquidity has its limits.

Conclusion

With higher expenditure, financed through borrowings, the impact of liquidity expansion on inflation needs to be monitored.

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