Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: HCARD
Mains level: Technology assistance for COVID-19 containment
HCARD, a robot, to assist frontline COVID-19 healthcare warriors has been developed by a CSIR lab.
It is very unlikely to create a prelim question on HCARD. However, developments as such help in exemplifying the scientific developments which helped contain such highly contagious outbreaks.
What is HCARD?
- The robotic device HCARD, an acronym for Hospital Care Assistive Robotic Device, can help frontline healthcare workers in maintaining physical distance from those infected by the coronavirus.
- The device is equipped with various state-of-the-art technologies and works both in automatic as well as manual modes of navigation.
- This robot can be controlled and monitored by a nursing booth with a control station having such features as navigation, drawer activation for providing medicines and food to patients, sample collection and audio-visual communication.
- The cost of this device is less than Rs 5 lakh and the weight is less than 80 kilograms.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Not much.
Mains level: Paper 3- Creating economy that is resilient and fair.
This article discusses the three principles which could form the basis for recreation of the economy devastated by the Covid-19. The first is adopting the economies of “scope” instead of economies of scale. The second is about governance and focus on bottom-up approach. And third is about empowering the people.
Impact of Covid-19 on the ideology of globalisation
- The history of the globalisation has turned out to be very brief.
- In 2020, the global COVID-19 pandemic has forced millions of Indians to return to their villages.
- Jetsetters have been locked in their gated communities.
- Global supply chains have been broken apart.
- People are scrambling for essentials from local suppliers.
- The ideology of globalisation has hit realities on the ground.
Recovery from COVID-19 is an opportunity to create economies that are more resilient and fair. The following three architectural principles must apply.
1. Replace economies of scale by the economies of scope
- COVID-19 has settled, for now, the debate between free-trade evangelists and advocates of industrial policy.
- The vulnerability of global supply chains: A complex global economy in which local producers obtain scale (and lower costs) by supplying products for global markets is vulnerable to shutdowns anywhere.
- The resilience of local economies: Local economies that have a variety of capabilities within them, albeit on smaller scales, are more resilient.
- Therefore, local economic webs must be strengthened, in preference to global supply-chains.
- “Make in India,” which was dismissed by free traders as a reversion to pre-1991 economic policies, has become a necessity.
- Make in India is necessary to maintain supplies of essentials and to create employment for the hundreds of millions of Indians with fragile incomes who have been badly shaken by the lock-down of the Indian economy.
2. Local systems solution to global problems
- Local systems solutions are essential for global systemic problems.
- Privatisation: Garrett Hardin had coined the expression, “The Tragedy of the Commons”, in 1968.
- The Tragedy of the Commons is a term for the proposition that a resource that belongs to everybody will not be cared for by anybody.
- This supported policies to privatise public property, ostensibly for the benefit of everybody and became the dominant school of economics from the 1970s onwards.
- A different explanation: Elinor Ostrom, who was awarded the Nobel Prize for economics in offered a different explanation for the tragedy of the commons.
- She argued that common resources are well-managed when those who benefit from such resources the most are in close proximity to them.
- For her, the tragedy occurred when external groups exerted their power (politically, economically or socially) to gain a personal advantage.
- Bottom-up approach: She was greatly supportive of the “bottom-up” approach to issues: Government intervention could not be effective unless supported by individuals and communities.
- The world is facing challenges of ecological sustainability and persistent inequalities, which seem to get worse with the prevailing paradigm of economic growth.
- These challenges are described in the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
- They cut across national boundaries.
- They also span several domains of expertise and institutional mandates.
- The final, 17th goal states the principle by which all the goals will be achieved — “partnerships”.
Actions theory Vs. Systems thinking
- Action theory: The prevalent action theory, used by governments, businesses and philanthropic organisations to solve complex problems, focuses on breaking complex problems into components and then tackling the components in separate silos.
- Problems caused by the actions theory: This widely prevalent theory of action has contributed greatly to causing the systemic, interconnected problems the SDGs now aim to address.
- What is systems thinking: Effective action to address multiple challenges together requires “systems thinking” — that is, a systemic vision spanning across the problems.
- Systems thinking is essential, amongst experts at the top and amongst partners on the ground.
- Several organisations are promoting collaborative action with systems thinking on the ground in India.
- Kudumbashree in Kerala has proven the power of community action.
- The Foundation for Ecological Security, guided by Elinor Ostrom’s ideas, is working in many Indian states.
- Dainik Bhaskar is promoting “SDG chaupals” in Indian villages.
3. Empowering the people
- The third principle for the new economy is, empower the people, the fundamental requirement for genuine democracy.
- India’s Constitution seeks self-governance in India’s towns and villages.
- These are not being implemented by governments and policy experts who do not want to give up power to the people.
- India lives in its villages, Mahatma Gandhi had said. Most of India still does.
- And many, who had migrated to cities looking for jobs, are returning, shaken by the pandemic.
- Gandhi was a systems thinker. For Gandhi, the global village was an abstract concept.
- This cannot be realised until local villages and towns become harmonious communities, where people live in harmony with each other and with nature around them.
The corona crisis has laid bare some of the problems associated with globalisation. It has forced a rethink of the economic policies and model adopted by the world. Against this backdrop, a question can be asked by the UPSC that demands the analysis of problems that have surfaced and solutions. For ex. “Covid-19 pandemic has brought into a sharp focus some inherent problems associated with the globalisation. In this context suggest the ways to make the Indian economy resilient to such shocks and fair to all the sections of society”
Conclusion
COVID-19 marks the end of the economics’ paradigm of the Washington Consensus. New models of economies, and new rules of global governance, must be bottom-up, not top-down. That’s how the whole world can move from relief, to recovery, and into resilience.
Back2Basics: What was the Washington Consensus?
- The Washington Consensus refers to a set of free-market economic policies supported by prominent financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the U.S. Treasury.
- A British economist named John Williamson coined the term Washington Consensus in 1989.
- The ideas were intended to help developing countries that faced economic crises.
- In summary, The Washington Consensus recommended structural reforms that increased the role of market forces in exchange for immediate financial help.
- Some examples include free-floating exchange rates and free trade.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Not much.
Mains level: Paper 2- Poor health infrastructure of SAARC countries and other common problems.
The article discusses the various common features shared by the South Asians countries. One of them is the poor public healthcare infrastructure. So, the pandemic offers an opportunity to make the required policy changes. It also offers the opportunity for cooperation among the regional countries in dealing with Covid-19. These issues are discussed in the article.
South Asian countries: Common features, common problems
- South Asia, one of the world’s most populous regions, is also affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Both Karachi and Mumbai, among the world’s most densely populated cities, where we live and work, are being overwhelmed by cases.
- While the death rate in these places may not be as alarming as in Europe and the U.S., the collateral damage of the lockdown is taking its own toll.
- Common features of South Asia: While there are many differences amongst the countries of the region, there are also common features which impact the health of its people, some of them a result of our shared cultural and geopolitical history.
- The collective experience of dealing with COVID-19 may provide important lessons, which transcend national boundaries.
Poor healthcare system: a common problem
- South Asian countries have invested very little in health.
- This is reflected in our abysmally low health parameters.
- It is interesting that Britain, which formulated our health policies before independence, went on to form one of the world’s strongest public health systems, the National Health Service.
- Whereas its South Asian colonies chose to stray from that path.
- This resulted in a dysfunctional public healthcare
- Governments have also relinquished what ought to have been their primary duty, of health care provision, to the private sector.
- Having become an industry, the focus of healthcare in the private sector is on profit rather than on people’s needs.
- High treatment costs in private sector: Whilst privatisation has brought in advanced technology and expertise, the high costs of treatment in the private sector have resulted in impoverishment as most of the population has no insurance or third-party coverage, and pays out of pocket.
- The sector has also been poorly regulated.
- The result is that it is responsible for several excesses in its quest for profit.
Other common features of the region
- Hunger, malnutrition, poor sanitation and large-scale migration are features of this region.
- Existing infectious diseases like TB, HIV and malaria have been worsened by emerging ones like dengue, chikungunya, healthcare-associated infections and antimicrobial resistance.
- The region is also an epicentre of an epidemic of lifestyle diseases.
- Conflicts and expenditure on defence: Constant internal and external conflicts in South Asia not only consume a large portion of national budgets but also divert the attention of the public and policymakers from healthcare needs.
- Defence budgets take the largest share of national budgets, and obviously adversely impact social sector spending.
- Underfunded public health is going to hinder region’s capacity to fight COVID-19.
- The central role of religion: Religion continues to occupy a central space in the society and politics of the region.
- Though it offers succour to many, religious dogma can impact health policy and health-seeking behaviour.
- The refusal of devotees across Pakistan to avoid religious congregations during Ramadan despite the government’s orders has significantly fed the community spread of the virus.
Opportunity for policy changes to address healthcare problems
- COVID-19 has forced us to seriously reflect on our healthcare system.
- This is welcome if it results in policy change.
- Healthcare professionals and bodies must seize this opportunity to push our respective governments to address it seriously and not just as a pre-election strategy.
- A long-term commitment to universal health care, with not only a national but also a regional and global focus, is needed.
A question on this theme could be asked by the UPSC, for instance, “South Asian countries share the common problem of poor public healthcare infrastructure, which increases their vulnerability to the pandemic. But corona pandemic also offers an opportunity to improve the shortcoming in the health infrastructure and cooperation among the SAARC countries. Comment.”
Regional strategy and cooperation needed
- The SAARC heads of state have already offered help to one another.
- A regional strategy has a better chance of controlling the pandemic than isolated national-level efforts.
- The pooling of resources and sharing data may not only help flatten the curve but perhaps even develop into longer-term efforts towards effective treatment.
- It is being speculated that our populations are behaving differently; that the BCG vaccine may be a protective influence.
- Joint research into such areas can be a unifying point for SAARC.
Conclusion
It is in our collective interest to look at health security and not just national security. By the accident of their birth, South Asians have endured a lot. They merit better.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Money multiplier.
Mains level: Paper 3- Government spending to sustain the economy hit by the corona crisis.
The article discusses the fiscal response of the government to deal with the corona crisis. Fiscal response to the 2008 financial crisis was higher in terms of GDP percentage. Also, a comparison with emerging peer economic indicates that India might be running the tighter fiscal policy in the time of crisis. The article suggests higher spending by going beyond the traditional fiscal space.
A possible explanation for moderate fiscal response by the government
- The Indian government has till now come up with an insipid fiscal response to the ongoing economic crisis.
- Long battle: One view is that the government does not want to fire all its bullets in what threatens to be a long battle. It wants to time its interventions.
- Weak public finances: The other possible explanation for this fiscal timidity is that India has entered this crisis with weak public finances.
Comparison with finances at the 2008 financial crisis
- The combined official fiscal deficit of the Union plus state governments was at its lowest level in many decades.
- The economic boom of the preceding four years had led to higher tax collections pouring into the treasury.
- The massive increase in spending announced in the budget of February 2008 was with an eye on the national election scheduled a year later, rather than in anticipation of a coming storm.
- Then followed the second wave of fiscal expansion after the North Atlantic financial crisis hit Indian shores seven months later.
- Back then, India’s effective fiscal stimulus over two years was a substantial 4.3% of gross domestic product (GDP).
- In 2020, the crisis-driven spending plan announced by the government so far is less than 1% of GDP.
- There could yet be a big fiscal push in the coming days.
Tighter fiscal policy in crisis compared to other emerging economies
- Some of the budget estimates released a few days ago by the International Monetary Fund are telling.
- In 2018, the total fiscal deficit of the Indian government as a proportion of GDP was 2.4 percentage points higher than the average for Asian emerging markets.
- India is expected to end 2020 with a total fiscal deficit that will be 2.5 percentage points lower than Asia’s average.
- In other words, India ran a looser fiscal policy compared to the rest of Asia in normal times, but is likely to run a tighter fiscal policy than its regional peers in a crisis year.
- Something similar can be seen in estimates for public debt.
- Asian public debt as a proportion of GDP is expected to go up by nine percentage points in 2020.
- The comparable figure for India is 2.9 percentage points. (These estimates are being cited with full knowledge that forecasting models break down during extreme events.)
Funding extra expenditure through money creation
- Lack of traditional fiscal space should not hold the government back in a crisis situation.
- There are many options outside the consensus macro playbook.
- Money creation: A commonly cited option right now is funding extra expenditure through money creation rather than borrowing.
- The size of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) balance sheet as a percentage of nominal GDP is close to its 35-year average.
- There is scope for printing more money right now.
- Lower inflationary pressure: And the inflationary consequences are likely to be muted because of the lower velocity of money amid a demand collapse.
- Public finances in the future: Getting public finances back on track is a battle that lies in the future.
- A rapid recovery in economic activity would be the best solution.
- Otherwise, history tells us that countries have brought down their public debt numbers through some combination of financial repression, austerity, higher taxes and inflation.
- Some element of capital controls could also be back in play.
Need for increasing discretionary government spending
- The collapse in tax revenues as the economy is shut down will automatically lead to a rise in India’s fiscal deficit.
- However, there is a need for an increase in discretionary government spending as well.
- Economists have shown that spending multipliers are higher than tax multipliers in India.
- In other words, the increase in economic output for every unit increase in the fiscal deficit is higher when the government spends rather than changes tax rates.
- State’s spending Vs. Union spending: Spending by states gives more bang for the buck than equivalent spending by the Union government.
“Below the line measures” to support the economy
- Also, there are options other than direct spending to support the economy.
- Countries such as Germany, the UK, Italy, France and South Korea have complemented traditional fiscal expansions with “below the line” measures such as loans and guarantees to companies.
- In an excellent recent study, analysts estimate that more than half of Indian corporate balances sheets will be unable to meet expenses with zero revenues.
- They are careful to point out that their analysis is based on extreme assumptions that there is no fall in their wage bills, no revenues, and no access to fresh credit.
One of the common suggestions we have been coming across is the spending by the government by printing money. In this article, the second important suggestion is below the line measures. Take note of these measures and options available with the government.
Way forward
- The poor need income support for their very survival. That should be at the top of any democratic government’s list of
- However, protecting Indian companies from a financial collapse also matters, because otherwise, the economy will see a reduction in its capital stock, which will be needed both for a rapid recovery as well as job creation once the worst is over.
- There are contagion risks in financial markets as well, going by what has happened to some mutual funds that were invested in bonds.
Conclusion
These are extraordinary times that require extraordinary measures. The danger from a delayed fiscal programme is that hysteresis may set in, as companies run out of money and supply chains are broken, damaging our economic prospects in the medium term.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Not Much
Mains level: Highlights of the report
The annual report ‘Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2019’ was released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a Swedish think tank.
Military expenditure across the World
- The global military expenditure rose to $1917 billion in 2019 with India and China emerging among the top three spenders, according to the report.
- In 2019, the top five largest spenders — U.S. ($732 bn), China, India, Russia ($65.1 bn) and Saudi Arabia ($61.9 bn) — accounted for 62% of the global expenditure.
- China’s military expenditure reached $261 billion in 2019, a 5.1% increase compared with 2018, while India’s grew by 6.8% to $71.1 billion.
- In Asia and Oceania, other than India and China, Japan ($47.6 bn) and South Korea ($43.9 bn) were the largest military spenders.
What drives India’s military spending?
- India’s tensions and rivalry with both Pakistan and China are among the major drivers for its increased military spending.
- While India’s defence spending excluding pensions, which constitute a significant part, has been growing in absolute terms, it has been going down as a percentage of its GDP as noted by the report.
Significant rise
- India’s expenditure in 2019 was 6.8% more than that in 2018.
- It grew by 259% over the 30-year period of 1990–2019, and by 37% over the decade of 2010–19.
The Defence expenditure in India is increasing every year in absolute terms, implying higher spending while there has been very selective modernisation of the armed forces. Critically analyse.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Not Much
Mains level: Need for a global consensus on Terrorism
A report compiled by NITI Aayog has questioned the methodology adopted by an Australian based institute to rank India as the seventh-worst terrorism affected country.
Despite of being a global threat, there is yet no consensus on the definition of terrorism. Despite the considerable discussion, the formation of a comprehensive convention against international terrorism by the United Nations has always been impeded by the lack of consensus on a definition.
Global Terrorism Index (GTI)
- GTI is a report published annually by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP).
- The index provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism since 2000.
- It produces a composite score in order to provide an ordinal ranking of countries on the impact of terrorism.
- It is an attempt to systematically rank the nations of the world according to terrorist activity.
- The index combines a number of factors associated with terrorist attacks to build an explicit picture of the impact of terrorism, illustrating trends, and providing a data series for analysis by researchers and policymakers.
Its database
- The GTI is based on data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD).
- The GTD is collected and collated by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland.
- It has codified over 190,000 cases of terrorism.
- The GTI covers 163 countries, covering 99.7% of the world’s population.
India’s ranking
- India has moved to the seventh position from the previous years eighth in the annual Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2019.
- India has ranked ahead of conflict-ridden countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Palestine and Lebanon.
Why such ranking matters?
- The positioning in the global indices impacted investments and other opportunities.
- The purpose was to see which of the indices can be used to drive reforms or which of these would require some amount of engagement with the publishing agency to make the indices more relevant.
Issues with GTI
- The GTD was based solely on “unclassified media articles, with more than 100 structured variables such as each attack’s location, tactics and weapons, perpetrators, casualties and consequences etc.
- The large diversity in definitions of terrorism amongst countries, and the lack of a universally accepted definition of terrorism, leads to a great deal of ambiguity in calculating and understanding GTI reports.
- IEP’s economic impact of terrorism model does not account for costs for countering violent extremism and long-term economic impacts on business activity, production and investment.
- Indeed, the GTI 2019 report itself states that a great majority of property damage values from terrorist incidents are coded in the GTD as ‘unknown,’ resulting in 1 out 4 parameters scoring nil for most countries.
- Similarly, the definition of mass shootings used in the GTI is limited to ‘indiscriminate rampages in public places resulting in four or more victims killed by the attacker,’ leaving out lone-wolf attacks.
Highly irrelevant data
- The absence of a robust data collection and analysis methodology, and any engagement with Governments facing the scourge of terrorism, means that the GTI has low direct value for policymakers.
- It cannot be used as an aid to understand and alleviate challenges to countries from domestic and cross border terrorism.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Naming of Tropical Cyclones
Mains level: Tropical Cyclones
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released a new list containing 169 names of future tropical cyclones that would emerge in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
When is the name of a Tropical Cyclone declared?
- Names are declared when TCs are diagnosed with maximum sustained surface wind-speed of 34 knots (62 kmph) or more as per Global Data Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) Manual of WMO.
- Panel Members’ names will be listed alphabetically country-wise.
We can expect a statement based prelim question like – Which of the following criterion are followed while naming a tropical cyclone?
Who is involved in the naming of Tropic Cyclone?
- Worldwide there are six regional specialised meteorological centres (RSMCs) and five regional Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) mandated for issuing advisories and naming of tropical cyclones.
- IMD is one of the six RSMCs to provide tropical cyclone and storm surge advisories to 13 member countries under WMO/ESCAP Panel.
- The panel countries include Bangladesh, India, Iran, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
- RSMC, New Delhi is also mandated to name the Tropical Cyclones developing over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) including the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
Since when did naming begin?
- The WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones (PTC) at its twenty-seventh Session held in 2000 in Muscat, agreed in principle to assign names to the tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
- After long deliberations among the member countries, the naming of the tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean commenced from September 2004.
- This list contained names proposed by the eight member countries of WMO/ESCAP PTC, viz., Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand.
Why name Cyclones?
The naming of Tropical Cyclones (TC) helps the scientific community, disaster managers, media and general masses to-
- identify each individual cyclone.
- create awareness of its development.
- remove confusion in case of simultaneous occurrence of TCs over a region
- remember a TC easily
- rapidly and effectively disseminate warnings to a much wider audience
Major criteria adopted for naming
- The proposed name should be neutral to (a) politics and political figures (b) religious believes, (c) cultures and (d) gender
- The name should be chosen in such a way that it does not hurt the sentiments of any group of the population over the globe
- It should not be very rude and cruel in nature
- The maximum length of the name will be eight letters
- The Panel reserves the right to reject any name if any of the criteria above are not satisfied
- The names of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean will not be repeated. Once used, it will cease to be used again.
Back2Basics
Explained: Naming of cyclones
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Europeanized school of painting in India
Mains level: NA
April 29 is the birth anniversary of the famed Indian painter Raja Ravi Varma (1848-1906), remembered for giving Indians their western, classical representations of Hindu gods and goddesses.
Raja Ravi Varma
- Varma was born into aristocracy at Kilimanoor in the erstwhile Travancore state of present-day Kerala and was closely related to its royal family.
- At the age of 14, Varma was patronised by Ayilyam Thirunal, the then ruler of Travancore, and went on to receive training in watercolours from Ramaswamy Naidu, the royal painter.
- Later, Varma studied oil painting with the British painter Theodore Jensen.
- Apart from Travancore, Varma also worked for other wealthy patrons such as the Gaekwad of Baroda.
Major works
- A prolific artist, Varma is believed to have made around 7,000 paintings before his death.
- Varma worked on both portrait and landscape paintings and is considered among the first Indian artists to use oil paints.
- Apart from painting Hindu mythological figures, Varma also made portraits of many Indians as well as Europeans.
- His most famous works include Damayanti Talking to a Swan, Shakuntala Looking for Dushyanta, Nair Lady Adorning Her Hair, and Shantanu and Matsyagandha.
His legacy
- He continues to be regarded as the most important representative of the Europeanized school of painting in India.
- His 1873 painting, Nair Lady Adorning Her Hair, won Varma prestigious awards including Governor’s Gold Medal when it was presented in the Madras Presidency and Certificate of Merit at an exhibition in Vienna.
- In 1904, the British colonial government awarded Varma with the Kaiser-i-Hind Gold Medal.
- In 2013, a crater on the planet Mercury was named in his honour.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: MPC
Mains level: Paper 3- MPC and RBI actions which are inimical to mandate of MPC.
This article by Urjit Patel elaborates on the recent actions of the RBI which are likely to result in making the role of MPC redundant. Some of the moves cited are injection of liquidity by the RBI and reduction of reverse repo rate by the RBI. Implications such actions could have for the macroeconomic stability are also discussed.
Stimulus package after the 2008 financial crisis and problems created by it
- Following the global financial crisis of 2007-08, India, like many other countries, embarked on a stimulus.
- The pump-priming did not end too well.
- Inflation and bad loans: By 2013, India crossed or approached double-digit figures in inflation and the national fiscal deficit, in addition to looming bad loans.
- Taper tantrum: In summer 2013, when the Federal Reserve indicated a possible reversal of its ultra-accommodative policy, macroeconomic parameters for India were so weak that it got caught up in the “taper tantrum” and experienced external sector fragility.
Inflation targeting and the role of MPC
- While fiscal excesses and financial sector stress remain issues today, India has improved significantly on at least one dimension — namely, inflation — which has also stabilised the external sector.
- How was this beneficial progress achieved?
- Starting in September 2013, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) initiated an effort to build credibility with domestic savers and international investors on maintaining inflation at prudent levels.
- Three years thereafter, the RBI Act was amended to put in place a flexible inflation targeting framework.
- A Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), comprising of RBI representatives and external members appointed by the Government of India, was enjoined with the legal mandate of managing the policy (repo) rate.
- MPC was mandated to keep consumer price inflation at a target level of 4 per cent, while keeping in mind economic growth.
Assessment of MPC’s performance
- By objective measures, the MPC framework until recently worked rather well.
- It lent transparency and democratic accountability to the process of interest-rate setting.
- Combined with efforts on managing food inflation, it has brought inflation closer to the target.
- It has contributed to tempering household inflation expectations.
- It has kept borrowing costs in the economy at reasonable levels in spite of the high level of government borrowing and several other distortions.
- Appreciation by the rating agencies: Indeed, rating agencies and multilateral institutions repeatedly mention the MPC and the inflation targeting framework as a landmark structural reform towards sound macroeconomic management.
Latest monetary actions by RBI that reduced MPC’s role
- Since last year, a series of monetary actions by the RBI have left the MPC’s decision on the policy rate partly redundant, diluted the accountable process of monetary decision-making.
- This has put at stake the sanctity of the MPC framework.
- With a stated intention to improve the transmission of monetary policy to households and corporations, the RBI has pumped unprecedented levels of money (close to Rs 7 trillion) into the banking system.
- It has done so mostly by purchasing government bonds but partly also by purchasing dollars.
- No desired results: Given impaired financial sector balance-sheets, transmission to economic growth has been at best muted; liquidity is no silver bullet to durably address financial sector stress.
- The primary effect of excessive liquidity has, instead, been to monetise the government’s expenditures and keep its borrowing costs low.
- With its declared aim not being met satisfactorily, the RBI has doubled down on liquidity supply, with the same outcome.
- An important casualty has been the MPC framework.
- Contradictory actions: At times, even when the MPC has kept the policy rate unchanged, the RBI has injected yet more liquidity to move medium-term interest rates down.
- The two actions have been noted to be in direct contradiction of each other.
- If the objective is to move medium-term rates, why not build consensus within the MPC to cut the policy rate more aggressively and communicate the rationale?
- Change in reverse repo by the RBI: Further, given the enormous liquidity glut, every night banks park liquidity with the RBI at a (reverse repo) rate lower than the policy rate and which is not set by the MPC; nevertheless, this rate used to be changed only as part of the MPC Resolution.
- Lately, the RBI has moved reverse repo rate progressively lower than the policy rate; recently.
- It has done so outside of the MPC meeting cycle and not as part of the MPC Resolution.
- There are straightforward tools in liquidity management to ensure that in surplus conditions also, the central bank transacts with banks at the policy rate — technically, by switching from “deficit” to “floor” system of liquidity management.
- Such a switch is routinely adopted by central banks when they provide excess liquidity; the RBI has chosen not to do so.
What are the implications?
- The net effect is that market interest rates are being increasingly controlled by the RBI rather than the MPC.
- Indeed, there is a proposal that the rate at which the RBI absorbs liquidity be still lower, likely divorced from the policy rate set by the MPC.
- The spirit of the MPC framework enshrined in the RBI Act is being violated.
- It is unclear how the MPC can be expected to satisfy its legal mandate if what it seeks to achieve via the setting of the policy rate is in conflict with, or compromised by, the RBI’s liquidity management.
- These developments have the potential to pose risks for India’s macroeconomic stability going forward.
- The implicit monetisation of fiscal expenditures through government bond purchases by the RBI in the secondary market has postponed the recognition of the untenable fiscal reality.
- The delay has meant the government has had limited policy space since the onset of COVID.
- Supply-chain disruptions due to measures taken to contain the pandemic raise the possibility of cost-push inflationary pressures, especially given the excessively easy fiscal and monetary conditions.
- This can abruptly raise economy-wide borrowing rates, inflict losses on banks, and imperil financial stability.
- If the gains in inflation credibility built by the MPC framework are dissipated by ineffective policies and operations, both household and investor expectations for inflation in India could unhinge.
- Worse, it could instigate turmoil in the external sector.
- Excessively low bank deposit rates may induce some non-resident deposits to exit the country.
A question based on the issue of RBI’s action and its implication for MPC and overall economy can be asked by the UPSC, for ex- “The MPC framework has performed well in delivering on its mandate. Yet, there were some actions by the RBI recently which could be perceived as inimical to the functions of the MPC. Discuss.”
Conclusion
In a highly unpredictable time such as this, the RBI should preserve its inflation credibility. The decision on monetary policy actions based on voting by committee members, provision of inflation and growth forecasts in the resolution statement, and coordination of rate-setting and liquidity management, need to be adhered to.
Back2Basics: What is MPC?
- The Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934 (RBI Act) was amended by the Finance Act, 2016, to provide for a statutory and institutionalised framework for a Monetary Policy Committee, for maintaining price stability, while keeping in mind the objective of growth.
- The Monetary Policy Committee is entrusted with the task of fixing the benchmark policy rate (repo rate) required to contain inflation within the specified target level.
- The meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee are held at least 4 times a year and it publishes its decisions after each such meeting.
- As per the provisions of the RBI Act, out of the six Members of Monetary Policy Committee, three Members are from the RBI and the other three Members of MPC are appointed by the Central Government.
- Governor of the RBI is ex officio Chairman of the committee.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: SPR
Mains level: Paper 3- Importance of SPR , issues with it and need for the diversification.
This article highlights the opportunity that the sharp drop in the oil prices presents to India. It also highlights several issues with India’s strategic petroleum reserves and suggests ways to deal with them. We have covered an article from livemint on the same topic in the past week.
Negative price in the international market for WTI crude oil
- Oil prices continue to decline globally, with crude hitting multi-decade lows, as global demand evaporates.
- Earlier last week, in unprecedented price action, the near-month contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sweet crude oil dropped to -$37.63 a bbl.
- A negative price has never before been registered for a major global crude oil benchmark.
- The extreme price action is a signal that there is a global oil glut with few places to store oil.
- Global oil markets have been severely disrupted.
- While WTI does not feature in India’s basket, Brent Crude Oil, which does, is trading around $25 a barrel, the lowest in 18 years.
Price of oil: The silver lining of the future recovery
- Even as India suffers from a lockdown, a silver lining for future recovery and reconstruction is the price of oil.
- Given India’s growth aspirations and lack of self-sustaining oil production, a sharp reduction in oil prices is a bonanza.
- Normally, reduced oil prices would translate into surplus for the consumers and a fiscal bonus for the government through increased tax collections.
- However, given that the demand for petrol has slumped, those gains will not accrue right away.
- Opportunity for India: India should look at this as an opportunity to strengthen its energy security by buying oil and filling up our Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR).
- Considering that India was the third-largest consumer of energy in the world, as well as the third-largest importer of oil in 2018, we are particularly vulnerable to oil price fluctuations.
- The dramatic reduction in oil prices offers a once-in-a-generation opportunity for us to fill up our reserves in an extremely cost-effective way.
India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Programme
- Currently, we do maintain an emergency stockpile of oil reserves: Under the existing Strategic Petroleum Reserves programme, India claims to have 87 days of reserves.
- Out of this, refiners maintain 65 days of oil storage and the rest of the reserves are held in underground salt caverns maintained by Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited (ISPRL).
- The existing and planned capacity for the underground reserves is 10 and 12 days of import cover for crude oil respectively.
Following point highlights the importance and various issues with India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). SPR plays an important role in India’s energy security. A question based on its role may be asked by the USPC “Assess the importance of Strategic Petroleum Reserves for India and what are the issues associated with that need to be improved?”
Issues with the strategic reserves
- First, capacity does not directly translate into utilisation, which is partly because oil is an expensive commodity most days of the year.
- In 2019, the average closing price of a barrel of crude was $57.05.
- In 2018, it was $64.90, and in 2017, U$50.84.
- Of the existing 10 days of capacity, only about 50 per cent is utilised.
- The second issue is with regard to the refinery holdings.
- In India, the SPR arrangement between the oil refineries and the Union or state governments is not specified well, though most of the refineries that hold stock are publicly-owned companies.
- In fact, a breakdown of which refineries hold SPR and in what form (crude or refined) or information about where they are located is not publicly available.
Need for transparency in relation to SPR
- The first step, therefore, should be to introduce transparency and accountability in relation to the SPR.
- The procedures, protocols and facts about Indian SPR storage require greater public and parliamentary scrutiny, just like India’s other strategic reserves (for instance, foreign exchange).
- For this, there should be timely and reliable dissemination of information.
- Instead, it is now shrouded in secrecy.
- The ambiguity surrounding mobilisation process: The lack of transparency around our SPR holdings is compounded by the ambiguity surrounding the mobilisation process.
- SPR reserves are meant to be used in emergencies, where time is likely to be of the essence.
- The SPR mobilisation process could be made more efficient by laying out designated roles for different agencies to avoid redundancies in times of crisis.
- There should be role and process clarity regarding SPR mobilisation.
- For instance, to begin with, there should be clarity on who (or which agency) can define an emergency and therefore order a mobilisation.
Diversification of SPR
- Further, in order to mitigate risks better, India should look to diversify its SPR holdings.
- Diversification can be 1)Based on geographical location (storing oil either domestically or abroad), storage location (underground or overground) and 2) Product type (oil can be held in either crude or refined form).
- Storage and transportation costs could be saved by diversifying geographically.
- 3) Diversification could also be in the form of ownership — either publicly owned through ISPRL or by private oil companies, such as ADNOC of Abu Dhabi.
- The private companies could fill up the SPR when prices are low and take advantage of price arbitrage.
- This could achieve a degree of price stability and reduce the cost for India to buy such large quantities of oil.
- The only requirement for this to work is to have a clear contract with the private companies about the mandatory minimum level of stock that they should preserve for use in emergency times.
Storing oil abroad
- With oil dirt-cheap, if we can purchase more than we can store in our existing facilities, why not go abroad for more storage space?
- For instance, one option could be to operationalise, modernise, and add to the oil tanking facilities at Trincomalee in Sri Lanka.
- Another opportunity would be to enter into a strategic partnership with Oman (Ras Markaz) for oil storage.
- Partnership with Oman would also help India avoid the potential bottleneck of the straits of Hormuz.
- Geopolitical risk factor: Since many of these places could potentially be vulnerable to geopolitical risks, only a small part of India’s overall SPR strategy should involve storing abroad.
Conclusion
Energy is and will remain vital to India’s aspirations for growth. The sharp fall in the price of oil presents an opportunity for the Union government to increase its SPR stockpile and achieve a degree of energy security.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Not much.
Mains level: Paper 2- Changes in the post-Covid-19 world in geopolitics and the geoeconomics.
The article discusses the changes that the world will experience in the global order in the aftermath of Covid-19. The major changes will be on the economic and geopolitical front. Various changes are discussed in the article. We have read some article on the same topic and the basic theme is the same. Role of China and the US, failure of the international institutions are some of the common themes.
Failure of international institutions
- The existing international institutions such as the United Nations, the United Nations Security Council and the World Health Organization (WHO) are seen to have failed to measure up to the grave challenge posed by the pandemic.
- The UN Security Council is under attack for being slow in dealing with a situation that appears, at least on the surface, far graver than any military threat in recent decades.
- The WHO has been tarred with the charge of bias and of grossly underestimating the nature of the epidemic.
- That prestigious global institution should have been singled out for attack at this time speaks volumes about the mood prevailing across the world.
Economic shock
- There are many other aspects of the COVID-19 crisis that will drastically impact the globe.
- Negative growth: On the economic front, the World Bank has already predicted negative growth for most nations. India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal year has been put at 5% to 2.8%.
- Contraction of the economy and the loss of millions of jobs across all segments will further complicate this situation.
One of the most important factors that we realised in the corona crisis in the role of the state. Take note of this factor. A question can be asked on the role of the state, for ex. “The COVID-19 pandemic has brought into focus the important role of the state in our lives. comment.”
The important role of the state in focus
- What is likely to change even more dramatically are certain other aspects relating to political management and security. Both terms are set to gain new meanings.
- The role of the state as an enforcer of public goodwill almost certainly become greatly enhanced.
- The dominant imperative would be to not put limits on the role of the state even where the situation may not be as grave as the present one.
- Many pieces of legislation of yesteryears that had been relegated to the archives — they were perceived to be anachronistic in a modern democratic set-up — may get a new lease of life.
- Some pieces of legislation such as the Disaster Management Act already reflect this reality today.
- Other pieces of legislation could follow in its wake.
- This trend is already becoming evident to some extent across the world. Europe has shown a willingness to sacrifice personal liberties in favour of greater state control.
- Post COVID-19, the world may have to pay a heavy price in terms of loss of liberty. An omnipotent state could well become a reality.
Following are the changes in geo-economics and geo-politics that post-covid world would see.
Role of China under scrutiny
- Far-reaching changes can also be anticipated in the realm of geo-economics and geopolitics. The world needs to prepare for a sea change.
- One nation, viz. China, is presently seeking to take advantage of and benefit from the problems faced by the rest of the world in the wake of the epidemic.
- Negligence on the part of China: China remains totally unfazed by the stigma that the current world pandemic owes a great deal to its negligence.
- More importantly, it is seeking to convert its ‘failure’ into a significant opportunity.
- This is Sino-centrism at its best, or possibly its worst.
- China now seeks to benefit from the fact of its ‘early recovery’.
- It wants to take advantage of the travails of the rest of the world, by using its manufacturing capability to its geo-economic advantage.
- Seeking geopolitical advantage: Simultaneously, it seeks to shift from being a Black Swan (responsible for the pandemic), to masquerade as a White one, by offering medical aid and other palliatives to several Asian and African countries to meet their current pandemic threat.
- In turn, it seeks to gain a geopolitical advantage by this action.
Hostile takeover bids by China
- There are enough reports of China’s intentions to acquire financial assets and stakes in banks and companies across the world amid crisis.
- Shares in HDFC: India seems to have woken up only recently to this threat after the Peoples’ Bank of China acquired a 1% stake in India’s HDFC.
- Across the world, meanwhile, the clamour against China’s hostile takeover bids is becoming stronger.
- Several countries apart from India, such as Australia and Germany, have begun to restrict Chinese foreign direct investment in companies and financial institutions in their countries.
- These countries recognised the inherent danger of a possible Chinese hostile takeover of their critical assets.
China taking advantage of RCEP and Belt and Road initiative
- Restricting hostile takeovers may not be adequate to checkmate China.
- It is poised to dominate the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
- Which will enable China to exploit market access across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, East Asian nations, Australia and New Zealand.
- Together with its Belt and Road Initiative, China is ostensibly preparing the way for a China-centric multilateral globalisation framework.
The diminishing role of the US’s and Europe
- The geopolitical fallout of this pandemic could be still more serious.
- One distinct possibility is that COVID-19 would effectively put paid to the existing global order that has existed since the late 1940s.
- The United States which is already being touted in some circles as a ‘failing’ state, will be compelled to cede ground.
- Weakened economically and politically after COVID-19 has ravaged the nation, the U.S.’s capacity to play a critical role in world affairs is certain to diminish.
- The main beneficiary of this geopolitical turnaround is likely to be China, a country that does not quite believe in playing by the rules of international conduct.
- Weakened Europe: Europe, in the short and medium-term, will prove incapable of defining and defending its common interests, let alone having any influence in world affairs.
- Role of Germany: Germany, which may still retain some of its present strength, is already turning insular.
- Both France and the post-Brexit United Kingdom will be out of the reckoning as of now.
Problems in West Asia and the possible role of Israel
- In West Asia, both Saudi Arabia and Iran are set to face difficult times.
- The oil price meltdown will aggravate an already difficult situation across the region.
- There may be no victors, but Israel may be one country that is in a position to exploit this situation to its advantage.
India: Economic and geopolitical challenges
- In the meantime, the economic downturn greatly reduces India’s room for manoeuvre.
- In South Asia, India faces the prospect of being isolated, with the Chinese juggernaut winning Beijing new friends and contacts across a region deeply impacted by the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Likewise, India’s leverage in West Asia — already greatly diminished — will suffer further.
- With oil prices going down and the Indian expatriate community (who are among the hardest hit by this downturn) out on a limb.
- Reduction in remittances: Many of the latter may seek repatriation back to the host country, substantially reducing the inflow of foreign funds to India from the region.
A question based on the changes in the global order in the post-pandemic world could be asked by the UPSC, for ex- “In the post-Covid-19 world, we are experiencing several changes. What are the changes in the geo-politics that are likely to affect India’s interests?”
Conclusion
In the post-Covid-19 world, we are about to see many changes on the economic and geopolitical front. India should prepare itself for the emerging challenges on various fronts.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Features of Basic structure doctrine
Mains level: Basic structure doctrine
Exactly 47 years ago, the Supreme Court passed its landmark judgment in Kesavananda Bharati vs State of Kerala, considered among the most significant constitutional cases in India’s judicial history.
Major judgments of the Supreme Court are mentioned in the newscard. Aspirants are advised to memorize them all with thier key features. UPSC may ask a prelim question mentioning all these judgements and asking which of them are related/not related to the Amendments in the Constitution. Right from the Shankari Prasad Judgment (1951) to the Ayodhya Judgement (2019), note down all important judgements.
Background
Amending the Constitution
- The Constitution of a country is the fundamental law of the land. It is based on this document that all other laws are made and enforced.
- Under some Constitutions, certain parts are immune from amendments and are given a special status compared to other provisions.
- Since the Indian Constitution was first adopted, debates have raged as to the extent of power that Parliament should have to amend key provisions.
Early years of Absolute Power
- In the early years of Independence, the Supreme Court conceded absolute power to Parliament in amending the Constitution, as was seen in the verdicts in Shankari Prasad (1951) and Sajjan Singh (1965).
- The reason for this is believed to be that in those initial years, the apex court had reposed faith in the wisdom of the then political leadership when leading freedom fighters were serving as Parliamentarians.
- In subsequent years, as the Constitution kept being amended at will to suit the interests of the ruling dispensation, the Supreme Court in Golaknath (1967) held that Parliament’s amending power could not touch Fundamental Rights, and this power would be only with a Constituent Assembly.
Parliament could make any amendment
- Article 13(2) reads, “The State shall not make any law which takes away or abridges the right conferred by this Part (Part-III) and any law made in contravention of this clause shall, to the extent of the contravention, be void.”
- In both the cases, the court had ruled that the term “law” in Article 13 must be taken to mean rules or regulations made in exercise of ordinary legislative power and not amendments to the Constitution made in exercise of constituent power under Article 368.
- This means Parliament had the power to amend any part of the constitution including Fundamental rights.
The tussle between Parliament and the judiciary
- In the early 1970s, the government of then PM Indira Gandhi had enacted major amendments to the Constitution (the 24th, 25th, 26th and 29th) to get over the judgments of the Supreme Court in RC Cooper (1970), Madhavrao Scindia (1970) and the earlier mentioned Golaknath.
- In RC Cooper, the court had struck down Indira Gandhi’s bank nationalization policy, and in Madhavrao Scindia it had annulled the abolition of privy purses of former rulers.
Background for the Kesavananda Bharati Case
- All the four amendments, as well as the Golaknath judgment, came under challenge in the Kesavananda Bharati case.
- Here, relief was sought by the religious figure Swami Kesavananda Bharati against the Kerala government vis-à-vis two state land reform laws.
- Since Golaknath was decided by eleven judges, a larger bench was required to test its correctness, and thus 13 judges formed the Kesavananda bench.
- Critics of the doctrine have called it undemocratic since unelected judges can strike down a constitutional amendment. At the same time, its proponents have hailed the concept as a safety valve against majoritarianism and authoritarianism.
- Noted legal luminaries Nani Palkhivala, Fali Nariman, and Soli Sorabjee presented the case against the government.
- The majority opinion was delivered by CJI S M Sikri, and Justices K S Hegde, A K Mukherjea, J M Shelat, A N Grover, P Jaganmohan Reddy, and H R Khanna. Justices A N Ray, D G Palekar, K K Mathew, M H Beg, S N Dwivedi, and Y V Chandrachud dissented.
A closer win
- By a 7-6 verdict, a 13-judge Constitution Bench ruled that the ‘basic structure’ of the Constitution is inviolable, and could not be amended by Parliament.
- The basic structure doctrine has since been regarded as a tenet of Indian constitutional law.
The judgment in Kesavananda Bharati
- The Constitutional Bench, whose members shared serious ideological differences, ruled by a 7-6 verdict that Parliament should be restrained from altering the ‘basic structure’ of the Constitution.
- The court held that under Article 368, which provides Parliament amending powers, something must remain of the original Constitution that the new amendment would change.
- The court did not define the ‘basic structure’, and only listed a few principles — federalism, secularism, democracy — as being its part.
- Since then, the court has been adding new features to this concept.
‘Basic structure’ since Kesavananda
- The basic structure doctrine was first introduced by Justice Mudholkar in the Sajjan Singh case (1965).
- Major features were notably propounded by Justice Hans Raj Khanna in 1973.
- The ‘basic structure’ doctrine has since been interpreted to include the supremacy of the Constitution, the rule of law, Independence of the judiciary, doctrine of separation of powers, federalism, secularism, sovereign democratic republic, the parliamentary system of government, the principle of free and fair elections, welfare state, etc.
- An example of its application is SR Bommai (1994), when the Supreme Court upheld the dismissal of the governments by the President following the demolition of the Babri Masjid, invoking a threat to secularism by these governments.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Ozone, Polar Vortex
Mains level: Ozone hole healing
Recently the EU’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) announced that a hole in the Arctic ozone layer, believed to be the biggest reported, has closed.
What healed the hole in the Ozone?
- The ozone hole’s closing was because of a phenomenon called the polar vortex, and not because of reduced pollution levels due to Covid-19 lockdowns around the world.
- The hole in the North Pole’s ozone layer, which was first detected in February, had since reached a maximum extension of around 1 million sq km.
Ozone hole
- The ‘ozone hole’ is not really a hole — it refers to a region in the stratosphere where the concentration of ozone becomes extremely low in certain months.
- Ozone, made up of three oxygen atoms, occurs naturally in small amounts.
- Roughly 10 km to 40 km up in the atmosphere (the layer called the stratosphere), the ozone layer is sunscreen, shielding Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation.
- Manufactured chemicals deplete the ozone layer. Each spring over Antarctica (it now springs there), atmospheric ozone is destroyed by chemical processes.
- This creates the ozone hole, which occurs because of special meteorological and chemical conditions that exist in that region.
The importance of the ozone layer
- Ozone (chemically O3, a molecule of three oxygen atoms) is found mainly in the upper atmosphere, an area called the stratosphere, between 10 and 50 km from the earth’s surface.
- Though it is talked of as a layer, ozone is present in the atmosphere in rather low concentrations.
- Even at places where this layer is thickest, there are not more than a few molecules of ozone for every million air molecules.
- They perform a very important function. By absorbing the harmful ultraviolet radiations from the sun, the ozone molecules eliminate a big threat to life forms on earth.
- UV rays can cause skin cancer and other diseases and deformities in plants and animals.
Why this year’s hole was massive?
- This year, the ozone depletion over the Arctic was much larger.
- Scientists believe that unusual atmospheric conditions, including freezing temperatures in the stratosphere, were responsible.
- Cold temperatures (below -80°C), sunlight, wind fields and substances such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were responsible for the degradation of the Arctic ozone layer.
- Although Arctic temperatures do not usually fall as low as in Antarctica, this year, powerful winds flowing around the North Pole trapped cold air within what is known as the polar vortex.
- By the end of the polar winter, the first sunlight over the North Pole initiated this unusually strong ozone depletion—causing the hole to form.
How long it will take for complete recovery?
- As per the Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion data of 2018, the ozone layer in parts of the stratosphere has recovered at a rate of 1-3 per cent per decade since 2000.
- At these projected rates, the Northern Hemisphere and mid-latitude ozone is predicted to recover by around 2030, followed by the Southern Hemisphere around 2050, and polar regions by 2060.
Also read: Polar Vortex
What’s causing extreme cold in US Midwest
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Deep Fake
Mains level: Cyber bullying and other threats posed by AI
Cybercrime officials in India have been tracking certain apps and websites that produce vulgar photographs of innocent persons using Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms. These images are then used to blackmail victims, seek revenge or commit fraud on social networking and dating sites.
The most notorious misuse of AI is knocking the door. The Deepfake is an application of Deep Learning (an axiom of AI and Machine Learning). UPSC may ask a mains question about the challenges posed by AI-based technology.
What is Deep Fake?
- Cybercriminals use AI software — now easily available on apps and websites — to superimpose a digital composite (assembling multiple media files to make a final one) on to an existing video, photo or audio.
- They are computer-generated images and videos.
- Using AI algorithms a person’s words, head movements and expressions are transferred onto another person in a seamless fashion.
- That makes it difficult to tell that it is a deepfake unless one closely observes the media file.
Threats posed
- Because of how realistic deepfake images, audio and videos can be, the technology is vulnerable for use by cybercriminals who could spread misinformation to intimidate or blackmail people.
- With real-time face tracking it is becoming easier to fabricate believable videos of people doing and saying things they never did.
- There are rising cases of “revenge porn” i.e. creation of sexually explicit videos or images that are posted on the Internet without the consent of the subject as a way to harass them.
What are the catfish accounts?
- Catfishing refers to the practice of setting up fictitious online profiles most often for the purpose of luring another into a fraudulent romantic relationship.
- A “catfish” account is set up a fake social media profile with the goal of duping that person into falling for the false persona.
What can we do to protect yourself?
- A basic check of their social media profiles, comments on the images and whether similar profiles exist could help determine if the person is genuine.
- While it is not easy to keep track of who downloads or misuses the user images, the best way to protect is to ensure that we are using privacy settings on social media profiles.
- If one feels his/her image has been used without prior permission, they could use freely available reverse image search tools to find images that are similar to yours.
- One can also be mindful of who he/she is conversing with on the web.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Lord Basaveshwara and his philosophy
Mains level: Six schools of Indian Philosophy
Prime Minister has offered his homage to the 12th-century social reformer Basaveshwara on his birth anniversary.
Vaishnavism and Shaivism are the two most profound strands of Bhakti Movement in Indian history. Enlist all the Bhakti Saints and their theistic philosophy and teachings. Try to spot the minute differences between them.
Lord Basaveshwara
- Basaveshwara or Basavanna was an Indian 12th-century statesman, philosopher, a poet and Lingayat saint in the Shiva-focussed Bhakti movement and a social reformer in Karnataka.
- He lived during the reign of the Kalyani Chalukya/Kalachuri dynasty.
- He was active during the rule of both dynasties but reached his peak of influence during the rule of King Bijjala II in Karnataka, India .
Founder of Lingayat cult
- The traditional legends and hagiographic texts state Basava to be the founder of the Lingayats.
- However, modern scholarship relying on historical evidence such as the Kalachuri inscriptions state that Basava was the poet-philosopher who revived, refined and energized an already existing tradition.
His Philosophy
- Basava’s Lingayat theology was a form of qualified nondualism, wherein the individual Atman (soul) is the body of God, and that there is no difference between Shiva and Atman (self, soul).
- Basava’s views finds places in Vedanta school, in a form closer to the 11th century Vishishtadvaita philosopher Ramanuja.
Famous works
- Basavanna spread social awareness through his poetry, popularly known as Vachanaas.
- Basavanna rejected gender or social discrimination, superstitions and rituals but introduced Ishtalinga necklace, with an image of the Shiva Liṅga to every person regardless of his or her birth.
- As the chief minister of his kingdom, he introduced new public institutions such as the Anubhava Mantapa (or, the “hall of spiritual experience”) which welcomed men and women from all socio-economic backgrounds.
Back2Basics: Bhakti Movement
- The Bhakti movement refers to the theistic devotional trend that emerged in medieval Hinduism.
- It originated in eighth-century south India and spread northwards.
- It swept over east and north India from the 15th century onwards, reaching its zenith between the 15th and 17th century CE.
- It has traditionally been considered as an influential social reformation in Hinduism, and provided an individual-focused alternative path to spirituality regardless of one’s birth or gender
- Salvation which was previously considered attainable only by men of Brahmin, Kshatriya and Vaishya castes, became available to everyone.
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From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: CTBT, New START, INF etc.
Mains level: Paper 2- CTBT and reasons for India's decision to withdraw from the talks.
The focus of this article is on the possible revival of the nuclear arms race among the US, China and Russia. In this context, the purpose and present status of the CTBT, which was aimed at ending the nuclear arms race is also discussed. The article ends by predicting the beginning of new arms race and possible demise of the CTBT.
What were the findings of US compliance report?
- State Department Report: In mid-April, a report was issued by the United States State Department on “Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments (Compliance Report).
- Tests with low yields by China: The report raised concerns that China might be conducting nuclear tests with low yields at its Lop Nur test site.
- And these tests are conducted in violation of its Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban treaty (CTBT)
- Violation by Russia: The U.S. report also claims that Russia has conducted nuclear weapons experiments that produced a nuclear yield and were inconsistent with ‘zero yield’ understanding underlying the CTBT.
- Though it was uncertain about how many such experiments had been conducted by Russia.
- Russia and China have rejected the U.S.’s claims.
- New nuclear arms race: With growing rivalry among major powers the report is a likely harbinger of a new nuclear arms race.
- The demise of CTBT: This new nuclear arms race would also mark the demise of the CTBT that came into being in 1996 but has failed to enter into force even after a quarter-century.
Background of the CTBT
- Test ban-first step: For decades, a ban on nuclear testing was seen as the necessary first step towards curbing the nuclear arms race but Cold War politics made it impossible.
- A Partial Test Ban Treaty was concluded in 1963 banning underwater and atmospheric tests but this only drove testing underground.
- By the time the CTBT negotiations began in Geneva in 1994, global politics had changed. The Cold War had ended and the nuclear arms race was over.
- The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, or the USSR, had broken up and its principal testing site, Semipalatinsk, was in Kazakhstan (Russia still had access to Novaya Zemlya near the Arctic circle).
- In 1991, Russia declared a unilateral moratorium on testing, followed by the U.S. in 1992.
- By this time, the U.S. had conducted 1,054 tests and Russia, 715.
- Negotiations were often contentious.
- Eventually, the U.S. came up with the idea of defining the “comprehensive test ban” as a “zero yield” test ban that would prohibit supercritical hydro-nuclear tests but not sub-critical hydrodynamic nuclear tests.
Make note of the points mentioned under “entry-into-force” provision given below. The reasons for India’s withdrawal from the negotiation are important from the UPSC perspective.
“Entry-into-force” provision and India’s objections to it
- Another controversy arose regarding the entry-into-force provisions (Article 14) of the treaty.
- Why India withdrew from negotiations? After India’s proposals for anchoring the CTBT in a disarmament framework did not find acceptance, in June 1996, India announced its decision to withdraw from the negotiations.
- Unhappy at this turn, the U.K., China and Pakistan took the lead in revising the entry-into-force provisions.
- What is “entry-into-force” provision? The new provisions listed 44 countries by name whose ratification was necessary for the treaty to enter into force and included India.
- India’s objection: India protested that this attempt at arm-twisting violated a country’s sovereign right to decide if it wanted to join a treaty but was ignored.
- The CTBT was adopted by a majority vote and opened for signature.
- Of the 44 listed countries, to date, only 36 have ratified the treaty.
- Signed but not ratified: China, Egypt, Iran, Israel and the U.S. have signed but not ratified.
- China maintains that it will only ratify it after the U.S. does so but the Republican-dominated Senate had rejected it in 1999.
- Not signed, not ratified: In addition, North Korea, India and Pakistan are the three who have not signed.
- All three have also undertaken tests after 1996; India and Pakistan in May 1998 and North Korea six times between 2006 and 2017.
- The CTBT has therefore not entered into force and lacks legal authority.
An organisation to verify CTBT
- Even though CTBT has not entered into force, an international organisation to verify the CTBT was established in Vienna with a staff of about 230 persons and an annual budget of $130 million.
- Ironically, the U.S. is the largest contributor with a share of $17 million.
- The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO) runs an elaborate verification system built around a network of over 325 seismic, radionuclide, infrasound and hydroacoustic (underwater) monitoring stations.
- The CTBTO has refrained from backing the U.S.’s allegations.
The revival of the nuclear arms race
- End of the unipolar world for the US: The key change from the 1990s is that the S.’s unipolar moment is over and strategic competition among major powers is back.
- The U.S. now identifies Russia and China as ‘rivals’.
- Its Nuclear Posture Review asserts that the U.S. faces new nuclear threats because both Russia and China are increasing their reliance on nuclear weapons.
- The U.S., therefore, has to expand the role of its nuclear weapons and have a more usable and diversified nuclear arsenal.
- The Trump administration has embarked on a 30-year modernisation plan with a price tag of $1.2 trillion, which could go up over the years.
- Concerns of Russia and China: Russia and China have been concerned about the U.S.’s growing technological lead particularly in missile defence and conventional global precision-strike capabilities.
- Russia has responded by exploring hypersonic delivery systems and theatre systems while China has embarked on a modernisation programme to enhance the survivability of its arsenal which is considerably smaller.
- Cyber capabilities being increased: In addition, both countries are also investing heavily in offensive cyber capabilities.
- The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) limits U.S. and Russian arsenals but will expire in 2021
- And U.S. President Donald Trump has already indicated that he does not plan to extend New START.
- Instead, the Trump administration would like to bring China into some kind of nuclear arms control talks.
- But China has avoided such talks by pointing to the fact that the S. and Russia still account for over 90% of global nuclear arsenals.
Context of the US backtracking from negotiated agreements
- Both China and Russia have dismissed the U.S.’s allegations.
- They pointed to the Trump administration’s backtracking from other negotiated agreements such as the Iran nuclear deal or the U.S.-Russia Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF)
- Tensions with China are already high with trade and technology disputes, militarisation in the South China Sea and most recently, with the novel coronavirus pandemic.
- The U.S. could also be preparing the ground for resuming testing at Nevada.
In the context of the latest developments, a question can be asked by the UPSC, for ex- “In the light of the latest developments on the global platform which are pointing to the revival of the nuclear arms race, how far India’s decision to not sign the CTBT is justified?”
Conclusion
New rivalries have already emerged. Resumption of nuclear testing may signal the demise of the ill-fated CTBT, marking the beginnings of a new nuclear arms race.
Back2Basics: What is “zero-yield test?”
- This means that the agreement prohibits all nuclear explosions that produce a self-sustaining, supercritical chain reaction of any kind whether for weapons or peaceful purposes.
- The decision not to include a specific definition of scope in the Treaty was a deliberate decision by the negotiating parties, including the United States, made to ensure that no loopholes were created by including a highly technical and specific list of what specific activities were and were not permitted under the Treaty.
- A thorough review of the history of the Treaty negotiation process, as well as statements by world leaders and the negotiators of the agreement, shows that all states understand and accept the CTBT as a “zero-yield” treaty.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Not much.
Mains level: Paper 2- Provision and suggestions to reduce the impact of corona crisis on the poor.
This focus of this article is on the universal delivery of food and cash transfer amid corona pandemic. There are some estimates of the cost of universal cash transfer and food delivery in the article and suggestion to ensure universal delivery.
Universal food and cash delivery is needed
- The immediate need for universal food and cash delivery is by now obvious and urgent.
- Across the country, there are reports of people — migrant workers, local workers, peasants, pastoralists, fisherpeople, vendors, ragpickers, and the destitute — facing extreme hardship, even starvation, because their livelihoods have been extinguished by the lockdown.
- These have created further an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, as millions of households with depleted savings have no way to access food and other basic necessities over the coming weeks.
- The threat of infection from COVID-19 makes even harder their coping mechanisms.
- In these dire circumstances, it is essential for the state to directly provide the basic means of survival to anyone who needs it.
- This must be in both cash and kind. Food access is the most important.
- But because of the closure of economic activity and the absence of any livelihood opportunity, this must be combined with cash transfers to tide over this period and the immediate aftermath.
- Food transfers must be provided for at least six months, and cash transfers for at least three months, though these can be extended depending on the period of lockdown.
- Because of the severity of the crisis and the high probability of widespread hunger and descent into poverty, these transfers must be universal, made available to every person who needs them, without relying on exclusionary criteria, existing lists or biometric identification.
The points mentioned below give us the ideal of food-grain stocks with India. And there are also the estimates of how much would be required if we decide to go for universal delivery of food. The data given below is important from Mains perspective.
How much will be the cost of universal food delivery?
- Consider first free universal provisioning of 10 kg of grain (wheat or rice) per person per month.
- This is likely to be availed of by at most around 80 per cent of the population.
- With an estimated population of 1.3 billion, providing this for six months would require 62.4 million tonnes of grain.
- This is a maximal estimate — the actual requirement would be lower.
- Stocks with the FCI: The FCI is currently holding 77 million tonnes of foodgrain stocks, compared to buffer stock norms of 24 million tonnes.
- It is expected to procure another 40 million tonnes from the current rabi harvest.
- It could easily release and allow the free distribution of foodgrain of 5 million tonnes and still have foodgrain stocks of 54.5 million tonnes, if the expected rabi procurement targets are met.
- Cost of storing grains: Furthermore, it is costly for the FCI to store this grain. The current costs of storage are estimated to be Rs 5.60 per kilogramme per year or Rs 2.80 for six months.
- This means that by releasing 4 million tonnes to feed the hungry of India over the next six months, the FCI would actually be saving Rs 17,472 crore, assuming that these idle stocks would have persisted.
- But even if these were sold, the costs are the revenue that would have been earned.
- This is difficult to estimate but by using Finance Minister’s estimates in Budget we get a (maximal) figure of Rs 1,17,000 crore.
Cost of universal cash transfer
- In addition, a proposed cash transfer of Rs 7,000 per month for three months to every household, assuming again that 80 per cent of households would receive this.
- With five persons per household, this expenditure would be Rs 4,36,800 crore.
- The two transfers together amount to Rs 5,53,800 crore, or around 9 per cent of currently estimated GDP.
Financing the expenditure through fiscal deficit
- This sum of Rs. 5,53,800 is not a forbidding sum.
- A great part of the responsibility to make these resources available vests with the Union government.
- But whatever taxes are introduced in a supplementary budget that has become unavoidable, the expenditure incurred has to be financed immediately through a fiscal deficit.
- Given the massive deflationary pressures and a complete collapse of economic activity, there is a strong case for financing the additional public expenditure through deficit financing or borrowing directly from the RBI.
- This is required both for coping with the pandemic and for softening the blow of the lockdown.
Following two suggestions are important suggestions for the delivery of food and cash in case we don’t have reliable data.
How to ensure universal delivery of food?
- The question arises of how universal delivery of these food and cash transfers is to be ensured.
- Existing lists are inadequate for the purpose because they significantly underestimate and exclude those who should be beneficiaries.
- For example, at least 100 million people are excluded from access to food under the National Food Security Act based on the 2011 Census.
- The most effective way of dealing with the food emergency is to provide food delivery at doorsteps or neighbourhood collection points to anyone who asks for it, with a simple marker such as the indelible ink used during elections to serve as the indicator of receipt.
How to endure universal delivery of cash?
- For cash transfers, the matter is more complicated.
- In rural India, MGNREGA job cards and pensions cover most households and allow bank payments.
- The urban poor include migrants, contract and casual workers mostly in small and medium enterprises, daily wagers, domestic workers, self-employed persons like street vendors, sex workers and ragpickers, and the destitute including homeless people.
- But there is no comprehensive record of the urban poor because the state has instituted no effective mechanisms to secure labour rights or social security rights to most urban workers.
- The urban poor build and service the city, surviving without rights and a hostile or indifferent state.
- The legally-mandated registration of inter-state migrants and construction workers in practice excludes most because their employers with the connivance of the state don’t wish to be bound to secure their rights.
- The humanitarian emergency created by the pandemic and lockdown entails universal cash transfers again to every adult who presents herself to designated officials in decentralised offices.
- For those who have accessible bank accounts, the funds can be credited to these accounts.
- For others, the Odisha system, whereby pensions are disbursed as cash in hand at pre-specified times, maybe a useful model to follow.
- This also can be adopted with indelible ink as proof of receipt.
Employment schemes after cash transfers
- The income transfers must quickly give way to an expanded rural employment guarantee scheme, and a new urban employment programme.
- These urban employment programs include caregiving and building water supply, sanitation and shelter for the urban poor.
- Private hospitals also need to be nationalised at least for the duration of the pandemic.
Conclusion
The working and poor people should not be made to bear the burden of the pandemic. There is a need for a bold resolve, by central and state governments, to literally reach the last person, rural or urban, with the food and cash they require to survive with dignity.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Consumption expenditure.
Mains level: Paper 3- The lack of employment opportunities is one the biggest challenges facing eastern states and Covid-19 pandemic has made it the pressing issue. What are the reasons for the problem? Suggest the ways to deal with the problem.
The article discusses the issue of migrant labourers and the problems eastern states could face due to the return of labourers and the lack of employment opportunities in these states. The return of migrant labourers may lead to the mechanisation in the states where they worked. A relief-cum-stimulus package at least 5% of the GDP is suggested by the author.
IMF’s projections for the economy
- The IMF’s projections for GDP growth for this year seem to be either in the negative or below 2 per cent for almost all major countries of the G-20 group.
- India could do a little better compared to the other BRICS nations, but its growth will most likely be below 2 per cent.
- This, of course, is under an optimistic scenario.
- Many experts reckon that India could also go into negative GDP growth this year if it does not reboot the economy properly and in time.
The problem of collapse in demand
- The Centre and the Reserve Bank of India are trying to remove all roadblocks so that factories and farms can resume operations.
- The focus is largely on the supply side — how to ease restrictions and how to increase liquidity in the system for resuming production.
- It may not take too long as the real problem is the collapse in demand.
- And that demand may not pick up easily as the virus is likely to stay with us for quite some time.
- We could have lockdowns again if there is a surge in infection.
- This will surely limit our travel and restrict our shopping for non-essentials.
- However, there is one demand that can easily revive — that of food.
Why food demand matters?
- The NSSO survey of consumption expenditures for 2011-12 revealed that about 45 per cent of the total expenditure of an Indian household is on food.
- For the poor, the NSSO reckoned, this figure was about 60 per cent.
- We do not have information about the consumption patterns in 2020, guess is that about 35-40 per cent of the expenditure of an Indian household is on food and for a poor household, this figure is around 50 per cent.
- Herein, lies the scope to reboot the economy.
Labour shortage and mechanisation
- The sudden announcement of the nationwide lockdown gave labours no time to go back to their families.
- They lost their jobs and incomes and having spent whatever little savings they had, these workers have been reduced to penury.
- The Centre and states, despite their best efforts, have not managed to address the problem of hunger of these workers.
- Even civil society has not managed to bridge the gap.
- The migrant labourers may well have lost their trust in the state, and once the lockdown is lifted, most of them are likely to rush back to their families in villages.
- And, it could be some time before they are back in the cities — that is, if they return at all.
- So, farms and factories, especially the MSMEs in the relatively developed states of western, southern and north-western India are likely to face labour shortages for many months, perhaps years.
- This could lead to more mechanisation of farms and factories in these states.
- In Punjab, for example, most of the wheat harvesting is already done by combined harvesters.
- Now even paddy harvesting could be done by mechanised harvesters.
The double challenge for states which are home to migrants
- However, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Odisha, from where much of the migrant labour comes, will face a double challenge.
- Their agriculture, with tiny farm holdings, is already saddled with a large labour force — this comprises 45 to 55 per cent of the total labour force of these states.
- Non-farm income from wages and salaries, through migrant labour, was an important source of income for households in these states.
- This is now severely hit. In all probability, the per capita rural incomes of these states could shrink, at least in the short run.
- This could lead to poverty and increase hunger and malnutrition.
- How does one then reboot the economy and also address hunger and malnutrition?
The lockdown and the subsequent plight of the migrant labourers brought to the fore uneven development in the country. The points mentioned below suggest the ways to address this problem. A question based on this issue could be asked by the UPSC, for ex- “The issue of migrant labourers amid Covid-19 pandemic highlighted the uneven development in the country. In this context, state the reasons which led to the uneven development of various regions of the country. Suggest ways to address the problem”.
The requirement of a special investment package for eastern states
- A special investment package — like the Marshall Plan of USA in 1948 — for the eastern belt of India is required.
- Investment should be used to build better infrastructure, agri-markets and godowns, rural housing, primary health centres, schools and enhances people’s skills.
- The package will go a long way to revive the economy and augment the incomes of the migrant workers.
- Rising incomes will generate more demand for food as well as manufactured products, giving a fillip to the growth engines of agriculture as well as the MSME sector.
- Building better supply chains for food directly from farm-to-fork, led by the private sector, will enhance the export competitiveness of agriculture.
- It will also ensure a higher share of farmers in the consumers’ rupee.
- Long-term demand-driven growth: Such broad-based development in a relatively underdeveloped region of the country will lay the foundations of a long-term, demand-driven, growth of the industry in India.
- The all India relief package of Rs 1.7 lakh crore announced by the central government earlier, which is about 0.8 per cent of the country’s GDP, is too small to reboot the economy.
Conclusion
If India has to bounce back quickly, it needs a much bigger relief cum stimulus package — certainly not below 5 per cent of GDP. And, it should focus more on the eastern belt, where the issue is that of survival.
Back2Basics: Marshall Plan, 1948
- The Marshall Plan, also known as the European Recovery Program, was a U.S. program providing aid to Western Europe following the devastation of World War II.
- It was enacted in 1948 and provided more than $15 billion to help finance rebuilding efforts on the continent.
- The brainchild of U.S. Secretary of State George C. Marshall, for whom it was named, it was crafted as a four-year plan to reconstruct cities, industries and infrastructure heavily damaged during the war and to remove trade barriers between European neighbours – as well as foster commerce between those countries and the United States.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Spratly and Parcel Islands- Their location
Mains level: South China Sea dispute
In the middle of the global coronavirus pandemic, China has been busy increasing its presence in the South China Sea.
The dispute
- In the past few years, China has stepped up military aggression and has created artificial islands for military and economic purposes in the South China Sea.
- This has drawn criticism from neighbouring countries and other western powers.
- Soon after, Chinese and Australian warships also entered the fray.
- Following the arrival of American warships, regional observers expressed concern that the US’s presence may only serve to heighten tensions.
- The US has no territorial claims in the South China Sea but is known to send its naval force into the waters each time there are provocative developments in the waters, particularly angering China.
Map observations in the South China Sea are must-dos for the CSE aspirants. UPSC often toggles in the Middle East, West and Central Asian region. This year we can expect a different region for a map-based question.
Why in news now?
China’s advent for islands
- This past week, Beijing unilaterally renamed 80 islands and other geographical features in the area, drawing criticism from neighbouring countries who have also laid claim to the same territory.
- The focus of Chinese acquisitory attention is the two disputed archipelagos of the Spratly Islands and the Paracel Islands in the middle of the South China Sea waters.
- They lie between the territory of Vietnam and the Philippines.
- If the dispute were to aggravate, Asia-Pacific researchers believe it could have serious consequences for diplomatic relations and stability in the region.
What is the Spratly Islands dispute about?
- There has been an ongoing territorial dispute between China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia concerning the ownership of the Spratly Islands archipelago and nearby geographical features like corals reefs, cays etc.
- Since 1968, these nations have engaged in varying kinds of military occupation of the islands and the surrounding waters, with the exception of Brunei, that has contained its objections to the use of its maritime waters for commercial fishing.
- Although the Spratly Islands are largely uninhabited, there is a possibility that they may have large reserves of untapped natural resources.
- However, due to the ongoing dispute, there have been few initiatives to explore the scale of these reserves.
Quest for Oil
- Over the years, US government agencies have claimed that there is little to no oil and natural gas in these islands, but these reports have done little to reduce the territorial dispute.
- In the 1970s, oil was discovered in neighbouring islands, specifically off the coast of Palawan. This discovery ramped up territorial claims by these countries.
What is the Paracel Islands dispute about?
- The Paracel Islands dispute is slightly more complex. This archipelago is a collection of 130 islands and coral reefs and is located in the South China Sea, almost equidistant from China and Vietnam.
- Beijing says that references to the Paracel Islands as a part of China sovereign territory can be found in 14th century writings from the Song Dynasty.
- Vietnam on the other hand, says that historical texts from at least the 15th century show that the islands were a part of its territory.
- These islands also find mention in records starting from the 16th century by explorers who led expeditions to the East.
- Colonial powers of the French-Indochina further accelerated the tensions with regard to the Paracel Islands due to their colonial policies in the 20th century.
- By 1954, tensions had dramatically increased between China and Vietnam over the archipelago.
What is the most recent dispute about?
- Recent China established new administrative districts on both Spratly and Paracel Islands.
- It also renamed those 80 islands, reefs and other geographical features around the two archipelagos with Chinese names.
- The last time China had unilaterally engaged in a similar initiative was in 1983 where 287 geographical features had been renamed in the disputed chain of islands.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Aarogya Setu App
Mains level: Privacy issues with the app
- Recently the AarogyaSetu app — for pan-India use was launched as the main contact tracing technology endorsed by the Central government.
- Soon it became one of the most downloaded apps globally and has crossed the 75 million mark.
- However, there are concerns for more transparency on the inner workings of an app that seeks the personal details of millions.
RIght to Privacy is a very much contested topic for GS. The Aarogya Setu app which has a lot more to offer, is under the radar due to underlying vacuum of Privacy Law in India.
AarogyaSetu App
- The App enables people to assess themselves the risk of their catching the Corona Virus infection.
- It is designed to keep track of other AarogyaSetu users that a person came in contact with and alert him or her if any of the contacts tests positive for COVID-19.
- It achieves this using the phone’s Bluetooth and GPS capabilities.
- Once installed in a smartphone through an easy and user-friendly process, the app detects other devices with AarogyaSetu installed that come in the proximity of that phone.
- The app can then calculate the risk of infection based on sophisticated parameters if any of these contacts has tested positive.
- The personal data collected by the App is encrypted using state-of-the-art technology and stays secure on the phone till it is needed for facilitating medical intervention.
Issues with the app
- The AarogyaSetu app faces the same issue as every other contact tracing technology that has come up during the pandemic period — it is people dependent.
- It needs widespread usage and self-reporting to be effective.
- Given that any number of total users will be a subset of smartphone owners in India, and there are bound to be variations in the levels of self-reporting, the efficacy is not bulletproof.
- The terms of use of the app also say as much, distancing the government from any failure on the part of the app in correctly identifying COVID-19 patients.
Are there privacy concerns?
- First of all, the app exists in the privacy law vacuum that is India.
- With no legislation that spells out in detail how the online privacy of Indians is to be protected, AarogyaSetu users have little choice but to accept the privacy policy provided by the government.
- The policy goes into some detail on where and how long the data will be retained, but it leaves the language around who will have access to it vague.
- As per the policy persons carrying out medical and administrative interventions necessary in relation to COVID-19” will have access to the data.
- This suggests interdepartmental exchanges of people’s personal information and is more excessive than countries like Singapore and even Israel.
Technical issue
- Beyond the legal loopholes, there are technical loopholes as well.
- The unique digital identity in AarogyaSetu is a static number, which increases the probability of identity breaches.
- The abundance of data collected is also potentially problematic.
- AarogyaSetu uses both Bluetooth as well as GPS reference points, which could be seen as overkill whereas other apps such as TraceTogether make do with Bluetooth.
Other issues
- Experts emphasise that automated contact tracing is not a panacea.
- They caution against an over-reliance on technology where a competent human-in-the-loop system with sufficient capacity exists.
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