Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Not much.
Mains level: Paper 2-How steps government must take to ensure that the stranded labour are not left without food.
Context
The impact of the lockdown, effected from midnight of March 24, has been particularly severe on migrant workers. The state must utilise FCI stock for those who have ration cards and those who don’t.
India’s labour force and impact of lockdown on it
- Nearly one-fifth of India’s labour force consists of internal migrants.
- As per the 2011 census, a quarter of the urban population consists of migrants.
- These tend to be predominantly male, from the less developed northern states, in the lower-income strata, and dependent on daily wages or precarious livelihoods.
- The impact of the lockdown has been particularly severe on migrant workers.
- Uncertainty and reverse migration: Due to uncertainty over the duration of the lockdown, and about their own livelihoods and food security, the lockdown has led to massive reverse migration from cities back to villages.
- Further, due to the absence of train and bus services, many of these workers took to simply walking back.
- The ground reality of inadequate preparation or insufficient provision means that neither their anxiety nor plight is assuaged.
- Migrant workers tend to depend on public eating places or community arrangements for food.
- Under a lockdown, there is simply no choice for them, except to depend on the government’s efforts or charitable organisations.
Utilising the grain stocks with the FCI
- The government has a large stock of wheat and rice procured over the last three years.
- Stock in excess of buffer norm: The buffer norm for April 1 is 21.4 million tonnes, against which the country had about 7 million tonnes on March 1: This comprises 27.5 million tonnes of wheat and 50.2 million tonnes of rice.
- In most districts of India, the Food Corporation of India and state agencies have a storage capacity of more than the three months requirement of the public distribution system.
- The warehouses are spread across all the districts in every state.
- The government has already announced that an additional quantity of five kg of foodgrains will be provided, free of cost, to all ration card holders for the next three months.
- Most of the unorganised labour and families migrating back from their place of work will probably have their ration cards in the villages itself.
- So, it should not be much of a problem for them to find food during the period of lockdown.
What should the state do to feed those who do not have ration cards
- For those who do not have ration cards in the villages, it is the right time to use this extra stock of foodgrains.
- Using school and Anganwadi infrastructure: In villages, primary schools have facilities for cooking mid-day meals for children. Some Anganwadi also have this facility. This infrastructure can be used to provide cooked meals to those who do not have ration cards in the villages.
- The government can easily offer to meet their requirement of wheat and rice over the next three weeks and panchayats can be asked to meet a part of the expenditure required to purchase vegetables, spices and cooking oil.
- The village panchayats which take up such a feeding programme must be provided Rs 20 per person per day from State Disaster Relief Fund for the expenditure on vegetables, cooking oil, spices, which are not covered by the PDS.
- In some villages, the local community may also be willing to help the panchayats to feed such people.
- Efforts must also be made by the panchayats to raise donations in kind from the local community for rabi pulses like chana (chickpea), masoor (lentil), matar (field pea) which are available in plenty in pulse-growing states.
How to feed those who are stuck in the cities
- A number of labourers and self-employed: In urban areas, as per the Periodic Labour Force Survey, there were about 6 crore casual labourers and four crore self-employed persons in 2017-18.
- Even after the reverse migration to villages, there would still be millions of them who are stuck in cities at their place of work.
- These are people who do not have any savings or source of income which can sustain them during the period of the lockdown. These people living in slums, in the poorer areas of cities, are in need of urgent assistance for food, at least for the next three weeks.
- The most distressed at present are those stuck in the cities, or who have been walking hundreds of kilometres to reach their homes in small towns and villages.
- Allocating funds form relief funds: The district collectors should be allocated funds from the State Disaster Relief Fund to provide them with food and open all community buildings en route for them.
- Engaging various players: The states must engage NGOs, factories and charities including religious organisations to raise funds for meeting the expenditure on milk, eggs, cooking oil and vegetables, and even soaps and sanitisers.
- More than 67,000 NGOs are registered with the Niti Aayog on their NGO Darpan platform — which was created to bring about a greater partnership between the government and the voluntary sector and to foster transparency, efficiency and accountability.
- This is the time to use such a platform.
- The Centre can easily provide free rice and wheat to the NGOs from its stock and the NGOs can provide cooked meals in urban areas for the next three weeks.
- For one crore individuals, for three weeks, the government needs to provide just about 75,000 tonnes of rice. Since the milling of wheat would be difficult due to the closure of flour mills, only rice can be provided at this stage.
Conclusion
The rabi harvest is expected to be a bumper one. The utilisation of the FCI stock — for not only the ration card holders but also the non-ration cardholders, and for providing food to the poor stuck in urban areas — is the most appropriate use of the foodgrain stock with the government. This is urgent and must be done.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Not much.
Mains level: Paper 3- Oil war in international oil market and implications for India.
Context
In the post-COVID world, India will, once again, confront the challenge of oil and gas supply security. We should, therefore, ask: What will be the landscape of the petroleum sector, post-COVID? And what should India do now to prepare for an uncertain and contingent energy future?
Oil war and the death knell of OPEC
- The concept of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) deterred the nuclear powers during the Cold War. It has had no such effect on the oil powers.
- Implications of the decision of Saudi Arabia and Russia: At a time when the virus had pushed the global economy into recession, Russia and Saudi Arabia took a set of decisions last month that knocked the economic props from under the oil market.
- What were the reasons behind the decisions: The Saudis decided to flood the market to hold onto market share and the Russians accepted the consequent decline in prices to push the US shale industry to the wall.
- Future of OPEC: Both may achieve their objectives but they have sounded the death knell of OPEC and possibly that of the oil industry as well.
Two reasons for the decline in the oil prices
- Today, the price of oil, at just above $30/bbl , is at its lowest in a decade, and volatile downwards. The average price in 2019 was $64/bbl.
- The reason is two-fold.
- One, the Saudis have ramped up production from 9.8mbd (before the March meeting) to in excess of 12 mbd today.
- Two, there has been an unprecedented COVID-induced crash in demand. This is because of the lockdown of the two main drivers of oil consumption — transportation and industry.
- It is estimated that oil consumption in the current quarter will fall by approximately 25 mbd.
- This is almost as much as OPEC’s production.
- The Saudis and Russia may still come to an understanding that rallies the price.
- There will be three major implications for the oil-producing countries.
1. Budgetary crisis
- Every major oil-exporting country will face a budgetary crisis.
- Qatar has the most robust balance sheet of all OPEC members. But it still needs an oil price of around $40/bbl to balance its books.
- Algeria has the weakest. It needs an excess of $100/bbl.
- Saudi Arabia is at the Algerian end of the spectrum requiring a price of around $80/bbl.
- Abundant foreign reserves: This does not mean these countries are about to go financially belly up. Most of them, the Gulf producers, in particular, have abundant sovereign reserves.
- But what it does mean is they will be hard-pressed to sustain their social and economic commitments.
- They will have to cut back on subsidies, raise taxes and the citizens will be required to tighten their belts.
- What India should do? India should build into its oil supply plans with the likelihood of civil strife in these countries.
2. Reconfiguration of the oil industry will take place
- Already, at current prices, a large number of companies are finding it difficult to cover their cash costs and have been forced to cut production and shutter operations.
- At even lower prices, they will become bankrupt.
- Whatever the final outcome, one fact is clear. Those that survive the carnage will have substantially slimmed balance sheets and reduced valuations.
- Exxon’s market capitalisation has, for instance, halved over the past month.
- Implication for India: Against this backdrop, we should drop the expectation of international interest in BPCL. Or for that matter ME investment into India.
- Ratnagiri refinery: The $40-billion Ratnagiri refinery project by Saudi Aramco and UAE will certainly not see the light of day.
- We should also expect a drop in the intensity of domestic exploration.
3. Behavioural changes and uncertainties
- The world, post-COVID will be different from the world pre-COVID. Behaviours will shift and these will deepen uncertainties.
- “Social distancing” may change the dynamics of “shared mobility”.
- Teleporting may reduce business travel.
- Heightened awareness of the porosity of national boundaries may accelerate the push towards decarbonisation? These uncertainties will push the petroleum market deeper into no man’s land.
Way forward for India
- Whatever be the shape of the post- COVID international petroleum market, India will be dependent on it to secure its domestic energy requirement. The question should, therefore, be asked. What should the decision-makers do today to respond to such a contingent and uncertain future?
- 1. Increase the strategic reserves: It should fill the oil caverns with strategic reserves. Prices may fall further but rather than bottom fish, it should leverage the availability of capacity to secure discounted supplies.
- The world has run out of storage capacity and producers may pay premium dollar to find space for their unsold cargoes.
- 2. Reduce the dependency and risk: India should increase its imports of gas (LNG ) from Australia, Africa and the US.
- This will reduce the political risks of dependency on oil supplies from the Middle East.
- Gas is also now economically competitive. The landed price of LNG is low enough to kick-start some of the stranded gas-based power plants.
- 3. Increase operational efficiency of oil companies: It should unthread the “patchwork quilt of authority” exercised by bureaucrats, regulators and politicians, which today stifles management and operational efficiency of the petroleum companies.
- 4. Integrated energy policy: India should create an institutional basis for an integrated energy policy. If there is one message we must internalise from COVID, it is the importance of collaboration and coordination.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Not Much
Mains level: Read the attached story
(This newscard is the excerpt from an article published in the TOI, authored by former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan. It discusses a series of reformative measures to boost our economy once the lockdown restrictions are eased.)
Context
- Economically speaking, India is faced today with perhaps its greatest emergency since Independence.
- The global financial crisis in 2008-09 was a massive demand shock but our financial system was largely sound, and our government finances were healthy.
- None of this is true today as we fight the coronavirus pandemic.
- With the right resolve and priorities, and drawing on India’s many sources of strength, it can beat this virus back and even set the stage for a much more hopeful tomorrow.
To begin with: 21 day Lockdown
- The immediate priority, of course, is to suppress the spread of the pandemic through widespread testing, rigorous quarantines, and social distancing.
- The 21-day lockdown is a first step, which buys India time to improve its preparedness.
- The government is drawing on our courageous medical personnel and looking to all possible resources – public, private, defence, retired – for the fight, but it has to ramp up the pace manifold.
- It will have to test significantly more to reduce the fog of uncertainty on where the hotspots are, and it will have to keep some personnel and resources mobile so that they can be rushed to areas where shortages are acute.
Restarting with caution
- The 21 day lockdown is about a week ahead to get lifted. It is hard to lockdown the country entirely for much longer periods, so we should also be thinking of how we can restart certain activities.
- Restarting requires better data on infection levels, as well as measures to protect those returning to work.
- Healthy youth, lodged with appropriate distancing in hostels at the workplace, maybe ideal workers for restarting.
Pacing up manufacturing
- Since manufacturers need to activate their entire supply chain to produce, they should be encouraged to plan on how the entire chain will reopen.
- The administrative structure to approve these plans and facilitate movement for those approved should be effective and quick – it needs to be thought through now.
Most crucial: Ensuring workforce sustenance
- In the meantime, policymakers need to ensure that the poor and non-salaried lower middle class who are prevented from working for longer periods can survive.
- Direct transfers to households may reach most but not all, as a number of commentators have pointed out.
- Furthermore, the quantum of transfers seems inadequate to see a household over a month.
- The state and Centre have to come together to figure out quickly some combination of public and private participation and DBTs that will allow needy households to see through the next few months.
- We have already seen one consequence of not doing so – the movement of migrant labour. Another will be people defying the lockdown to get back to work if they cannot survive otherwise.
Gearing up for fiscal shocks
- Our limited fiscal resources are certainly a worry. However, spending on the needy at this time is a high priority use of resources, the right thing to do as a humane nation.
- This does not mean that we can ignore our budgetary constraints, especially given that our revenues will also be severely affected this year.
- Unlike the US or Europe, which can spend 10% more of GDP without fear of a ratings downgrade, we already entered this crisis with a huge fiscal deficit, and will have to spend yet more.
- A ratings downgrade coupled with a loss of investor confidence could lead to a plummeting exchange rate and a dramatic increase in long term rates in this environment, and substantial losses for our financial institutions.
Channelizing expenditures
- So we have to prioritise, cutting back or delaying less important expenditures, while refocusing on immediate needs.
- At the same time, to reassure investors, the government could express its commitment to return to fiscal rectitude.
- The govt. must back up its intent by accepting the setting up of an independent fiscal council and setting a medium term debt target, as suggested by the NK Singh committee.
Boosting up Industries
1) MSMEs
- Many MSMEs already weakened over the last few years, may not have the resources to survive.
- We need to think of innovative ways in which bigger viable ones, especially those that have considerable human and physical capital embedded in them, can be helped.
- SIDBI can make the terms of its credit guarantee of bank loans to SMEs even more favourable, but banks are unlikely to want to take on much more credit risk at this point.
- The government could accept responsibility for the first loss in incremental bank loans made to an SME, up to the quantum of income taxes paid by the SME in the past year.
2) Large industries
- Large firms can also be a way to channel funds to their smaller suppliers. They usually can raise money in bond markets and pass it on.
- Banks, insurance companies, and bond mutual funds should be encouraged to buy new investment-grade bond issuances, and their way eased by the RBI.
- The government should also require each of its agencies and PSUs, including at the state level, to pay their bills immediately, so that private firms get valuable liquidity.
Looping in everyone’s participation
- The government should call on people with proven expertise and capabilities, of whom there are so many in India, to help it manage its response.
- It may even want to reach across the political aisle to draw in members of the opposition who have had experience in previous times of great stress like the global financial crisis.
- If, however, the government insists on driving everything from the PMO, with the same overworked people, it will do too little, too late.
Conclusion
- Globally, it is said that India reforms only in crisis.
- Hopefully, this otherwise unmitigated tragedy will help us see how weakened we have become as a society, and will focus our politics on the critical economic and healthcare reforms we sorely need.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Great Economic Depression, Slowdown vs. Depression
Mains level: Impact of the depression on colonial India
With the novel coronavirus pandemic severely affecting the global economy, some experts have begun comparing the current crisis with the Great Depression — the devastating economic decline of the 1930s that went on to shape countless world events.
Looming depression ahead
- Experts have warned that unemployment levels in some countries could reach those from the 1930s era, when the unemployment rate was as high as around 25 per cent in the United States.
- Currently, unemployment levels in the US are already estimated to be at 13 per cent, highest since the Great Depression.
What was the Great Depression?
- The Great Depression was a major economic crisis that began in the United States in 1929, and went to have a worldwide impact until 1939.
- It began on October 24, 1929, a day that is referred to as “Black Thursday”, when a monumental crash occurred at the New York Stock Exchange as stock prices fell by 25 per cent.
- Though the crash was triggered by minor events, the extent of the decline was due to more deep-rooted factors such as a fall in aggregate demand, misplaced monetary policies, and an unintended rise in inventory levels.
- In the United States, prices and real output fell dramatically. Industrial production fell by 47 per cent, the wholesale price index by 33 per cent, and real GDP by 30 per cent.
What caused Great Depression?
The causes of the Great Depression are extremely complex and disputed to this day. The three main factors are:
- Financial instability and credit cycles: A period of stability encouraged more borrowing and lending than prudent, sowing the seeds for future instability.
- Monetary contraction, the gold standard, and bank runs: Monetary policy, driven in large part by the gold standard, tightened credit at the wrong time fueling bank-runs and economic slowdown.
- Debt deflation: Excess private debt created a dangerous condition where no one wanted to spend, causing deflation and economic weakening.
Worldwide impact
- The havoc caused in the US spread to other countries mainly due to the gold standard, which linked most of the world’s currencies by fixed exchange rates.
- In almost every country of the world, there were massive job losses, deflation, and a drastic contraction in output.
- Unemployment in the US increased from 3.2 per cent to 24.9 per cent between 1929 and 1933. In the UK, it rose from 7.2 per cent to 15.4 per cent between 1929 and 1932.
Latent outcomes
- The Depression caused extreme human suffering, and many political upheavals took place around the world.
- In Europe, economic stagnation that the Depression caused is believed to be the principal reason behind the rise of fascism, and consequently the Second World War.
- It had a profound impact on institutions and policymaking globally and led to the gold standard being abandoned.
How did Great Depression impact India?
- The Depression had an important impact on India’s freedom struggle.
- Due to the global crisis, there was a drastic fall in agricultural prices, the mainstay of India’s economy, and a severe credit contraction occurred as colonial policymakers refused to devalue the rupee.
- The effects of the Depression became visible around the harvest season in 1930, soon after Mahatma Gandhi had launched the Civil Disobedience movement in April the same year.
1) Rural India mainstreamed into freedom struggle
- The fallout made substantial sections of the peasantry rise in protest and this protest was articulated by members of the National Congress.
- There were “No Rent” campaigns in many parts of the country, and radical Kisan Sabhas were started in Bihar and eastern UP.
- Agrarian unrest provided a groundswell of support to the Congress, whose reach was yet to extend into rural India.
2) INC gained momentum
- The endorsement by farming classes is believed to be among the reasons that enabled the party to achieve its landslide victory in the 1936-37 provincial elections held under the Government of India Act, 1935.
- This is marked as a significant event in the history of INC as it flourished the party’s political might for years to come.
Back2Basics
Slowdown vs recession vs depression
- Slowdown simply means that the pace of the GDP growth has decreased. During slowdown, the GDP growth is still positive but the rate of growth has decreased.
- Recession refers to a phase of the downturn in the economic cycle when there is a fall in the country’s GDP for two quarters. It is a period of decline in total output, income, employment and trade, usually lasting six months to a year.
- Depression is a prolonged period of economic recession marked by a significant decline in income and employment. It is a negative GDP growth of 10% of more, for more than 3 years.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Not Much
Mains level: COVID-19 and its impact on climate change negotiation
Context
- Amidst the pandemic, people are breathing cleaner air and are witness to clearer, bluer skies as the human movement has been restricted due to lockdowns imposed by various countries.
- But while the air may be getting cleaner, the lockdowns are not exactly good news for climate change research.
- Climate talks are witnessing setbacks in the form of funding cuts, cancelled climate conferences and reduced political will to tackle climate change.
COVID-19 impacting climate change research
- The hard paced climate change research has been halted and it might become difficult to restart the conversation around it, even after the pandemic is brought under control.
- The major projects that were scheduled to gather environmental data have all been cancelled or postponed and the crisis has also cast a shadow on routine monitoring of weather and climate change.
- Further, because commercial flights are running at a lesser frequency, it has also become difficult to collect ambient temperatures and the wind speed, which is taken by in-flight sensors.
- The other reason that other research has more or less been halted is because of restrictions including lockdowns, insistence on working from home and other social distancing requirements.
Scope for a back seat
- Due to the looming health crisis, human kind’s immediate survival is the biggest concern at the moment.
- However, completely ignoring environmental policy may not be in humanity’s best interest.
- Largely we still view the environment, and life on earth, as separate. This separation is a dangerous delusion.
- We can and must do better if we want to prevent the next infectious pandemic.
Climate change and infectious diseases are not separate
- The two are not directly related, which is to say that climate change did not lead to the spread of the coronavirus.
- However, there is a possibility that climate change could have exacerbated the impact of COVID-19 by making the consequences worse for some humans.
- For instance, air pollution’s impact on human health could make some consequences of the disease more severe for a few humans.
- A 2003 study on air pollution and the case fatality rate for SARS showed that people exposed to air pollution were more likely to suffer severe consequences from the disease.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Amma Canteen
Mains level: Food subsidization and its impact
The Amma Canteen, a delivery system to provide urban food security in Tamil Nadu, has become an effective mechanism in reaching the needy during the lockdown.
AMMA Canteen
- Amma Unavagam better known as Amma Canteen is a food subsidization programme run by the Government of Tamil Nadu.
- Under the scheme, municipal corporations of the state-run canteens serving subsidised food at low prices.
- The dishes are offered at low prices: ₹1 for an idli, ₹5 for a plate of sambar rice, ₹5 for a plate of “Karuvapellai Satham” (Curry leaves rice) and ₹3 for a plate of curd rice.
Feeding the stranded
- Migrants usually benefit from this canteen scheme. It is not uncommon to see policemen, municipal workers and people from the media having their breakfast in these canteens.
- The system, in short, has ensured urban food security and is a boon to migrants during lockdown. There are, thus, unexpected but pleasant benefits from this scheme.
Reasons for success
- It is a delivery system with minimum leakages and has reached to its target group very effectively compared to the PDS system.
- People realized the benefits of the scheme in due course of time and thus it emerged popularly.
A lesson for all
- Welfare schemes are started with the intention to provide benefits to vulnerable sections of society.
- The success of any welfare scheme depends on the seriousness of the people at the helm of affairs, the efficiency of the scheme’s functionaries and the involvement of the people.
- During the process of implementation, some deserving people get excluded from the scheme, while some of those who were undeserving manage to enjoy its benefits.
- Welfare schemes deliver unexpected but pleasant benefits sometimes.
Way forward
- For such a welfare scheme to be successful, it must be launched in letter and spirit.
- The benefits of the schemes cannot be realized at pan India level in the absence of a good delivery system.
- These states should explore the possibility of utilising available infrastructure in existing private canteens and hotels (closed during lockdown).
- This measure would not only help migrant workers but also provide employment to workers who remained unemployed since the lockdown came into effect.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Drive-through Testing
Mains level: Coronovirus outbreak and its mitigation
To work around the challenges of home-based testing in the country, a New Delhi based firm has offered ‘drive-through test’ for COVID-19.
Drive-through Testing
- Those who feel sick drive up to a test centre where nurses wearing protective gear collect a nose or throat sample from the car itself.
- Results are mailed or messaged in a day.
- This method of mass testing has allowed reduced contact between patients and healthcare workers, thereby lessening the chances of transmission.
- South Korea has led the world in the number of tests per million to check for coronavirus infection through this method.
Germany: leading through examples
- Germany is conducting around 3,50,000 coronavirus tests a week, far more than any other country.
- It means that more people with few or no symptoms are reported thereby increasing the number of known cases and adequate quarantines.
Limitations (for India)
- We have seen so far is that many are uncomfortable with the home collection process.
- Some people are worried that lab personnel visiting home in full protective gear would scare the neighbours.
- There are also instances when spouses of some healthcare personnel have separated for a while.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Pink Supermoon
Mains level: NA
A supermoon is all scheduled to show up in the sky on April 7. It would be the biggest and brightest full moon of 2020.
Pink Supermoon
- According to NASA, a supermoon takes place when a full moon is at its closest to the Earth.
- When the full moon appears at perigee (closest point from the earth) it is slightly brighter and larger than a regular full moon — and that is what we call a “supermoon.”
- They are called Supermoons because they are 7 per cent bigger and 15 per cent brighter, compared to an average full Moon.
- The moon will not be originally pink in colour. It got its name from the pink wildflowers – Wild Ground Phlox – that bloom in the spring and are native to North America.
- It is also called Paschal moon because, in the Christian calendar, this is used to calculate the date for Easter – the first Sunday after the Paschal Moon is Easter Sunday.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Not much.
Mains level: Paper 2- What are the possibilities that could be brought in the world by the epidemic.
Context
As COVID-19 spreads exponentially across the world, profound uncertainty and extreme volatility are wreaking havoc of a kind seldom encountered previously. It might, hence, be wise to start thinking of what next, if at least to try and handle a situation created by the most serious pandemic in recent centuries.
China’s important role
- No previous experience: The problem with the novel coronavirus is that with the exception of China, which battled another coronavirus epidemic in 2003 — SARS epidemic — there is little available for most nations on which to base their assessment of what next.
- Further drop in China’s growth rate: What is known is that China’s growth rate has further plummeted, even as it was confronting an economic slowdown which had been in the works for some time.
- Economic downturn internationally: The consequences for the global economy of China ceasing to be the world’s biggest exporter of manufactured goods are considerable.
- And with no country in a position to replace it, this development will precipitate a further economic downturn internationally.
Uncertainties before epidemic
- The COVID-19 pandemic could not have come at a more difficult time.
- Uncertain economic environment: The world was already having to contend with an uncertain economic environment, with industries in turn facing newer challenges such as having to adjust to a shift from cost efficiencies to innovation and breakthrough improvements.
- Added to this were: a global slowdown, increasing political and policy uncertainties, alterations in social behaviour, new environmental norms, etc.
- India’s position: Newly emerging economies, such as India, were even more affected by all this, than some of the older established ones.
Impact on India and what lies ahead?
- Estimate of cost by ADB: An early estimate by the Asian Development Bank, soon after the epidemic was declared, was that it would cost the Indian economy $29.9 billion.
- A recent industry estimate pegs the cost of the lockdown at around $120 billion or 4% of India’s GDP.
- May require six months to recover after epidemic: The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) had at one point warned that the COVID-19 impact, and the existing stress in the financial sector, meant that India would require up to six months even after the entire course of the COVID-19 epidemic is over to restore normalcy and business continuity.
- The COVID-19 Taskforce under the Finance Minister come up with measures to mitigate the economic hardship engendered by the pandemic, and finally a three-week-long lockdown.
- Several precautionary measures based on guidelines in vogue elsewhere in the world for preventing pandemics of this kind, have also been introduced including ‘home isolation’, ‘home quarantine’, etc.
- The prognosis as to what lies ahead is indeed bleak.
- On the economic plane, according to most experts, a global recession seems inevitable.
- The decline in demand: Uncertainty, panic and lockdown policies are expected to cause demand worldwide to decline in a precipitous way.
- Start of downward cycle: Decline in demand will inevitably lead to a vicious downward cycle, where companies close down, resulting in more lay-offs and a further drop in consumption.
- A precipitous decline in GDP would follow.
- Massive funds would be needed: To compensate for this loss, massive inflows of government funds would be needed, but most governments, India included, might find it difficult to find adequate resources for this purpose.
- Right time for fund: Equally important, if not more so, is that such massive inflows of funds (if they are to be effective) should be here and now, and not later, by which time the situation may well have spiralled out of control. Global coordination was a must in the extant situation.
Disruption in the global order- Implications for the position of the US
- COVID-19 is, in turn, expected to bring about major changes in the global order.
- Changes would get accelerated: Some of these changes have, no doubt, been in the making for some time, but would get accelerated.
- As of now, though the U.S. is no longer the global power that it once was, it is hardly in retreat.
- Retreat from Afghanistan, not the end: The US is, without doubt, increasingly disinclined to act as the world’s gendarme, as instanced by its retreat from Afghanistan after a dubious accord with the Afghan Taliban,
- But this was not the end of the road as far as U.S. power was concerned.
- The US would step back further: Post COVID-19, however, and given that the U.S. is among the countries badly affected by this pandemic, together with existing uncertainties affecting its financial markets, the U.S. can be expected to step back even further — from one of assertion to neutrality in global affairs.
- Already, U.S. command of the global commons has weakened. Meantime, China and Russia have strengthened their relationship and improved their asymmetric capabilities.
- US not the largest economy by PPP: The challenge from China is becoming more obvious by the day — measured by purchasing power parity, the S. is not the largest economy in the world as of now.
- Russian challenge: Even more daunting from a U.S. standpoint, and also representing a sea-change from the recent past, Russia has become far more economically and politically stable and an important power broker in West Asia.
- Impact on liberal international order: These shifts cannot but, and are likely to, have a direct impact on the liberal international order. It could, in turn, give a boost to authoritarian regimes and authoritarian trends.
Impact on social behaviour
- Moving away from the political and economic consequences of COVID-19 are other concerns arising from an extended lockdown, social distancing and isolation.
- The epidemic of despair: Psychologists are even talking of an ‘epidemic of despair’ arising from a fear of unknown causes, resulting in serious anxiety and mental problems.
- Problems due to extended isolation: Extended isolation, according to psychologists, can trigger a different kind of pandemic even leading to possible suicidal tendencies, fits of anger, depression, alcoholism and eccentric behavioural patterns.
Inequality and impact
- The impact is not the same for all: Another fallout from the current epidemic might well be the extent to which inequality in incomes impact segments of the population, facing a common malaise.
- Countries lacking a comprehensive nation-wide health system would find this an even more difficult situation to handle.
- Meantime, as the economy weakens, accompanied by job losses, those without high levels of skills would fall further behind.
- This is evident to some extent already given recent reports of mass migration across the Indian landmass.
- Out of work migrant labour, unable to find new jobs since they lack the necessary skills, are attempting to return to their normal habitat, bringing in their wake untold suffering and, perhaps even the spread of the virus.
- This has all the makings of a huge human tragedy. Existing curbs on their movement would further exacerbate the problem, and could even lead to a major law and order situation.
Possibility of the rise of digital authoritarianism
- One possible, and unexpected, aspect of the COVID-19 epidemic could be the thrust it could provide to ‘digital authoritarianism’.
- China’s authoritarian methods seem to have helped it to contain the spread of the virus — at least for the time being.
- Somewhat similar tactics are being employed by some other countries as well.
- In turn, leaders across many nations may find China’s methods, and the embracing of technology to refashion authoritarianism for the modern age irresistible, and a standard to be adapted, even if they profess to be democratic.
- The rise of digital autocracies could lead to digital repression, and in the age of AI-powered surveillance, create a capacity for predictive control, or what is often referred to as ‘social management’.
Conclusion
The pandemic even after it’s over could change the world in more than one ways and we must be cautious in our approach in accepting or rejecting these changes brought about by the epidemic.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Techniques used for detecting virus: RT-PCR, CRISPR and serological tests.
Mains level: Paper 3- Various techniques used in tests used to detect Covid-19 and their advantages.
Context
The present COVID-19 outbreak has brought to light the old struggle between humans and viruses.
The constant struggle between humans and viruses
- Hijacking the cell machinery of the host: Microbes, particularly viruses, have only one goal — to find a suitable host and multiply. Viruses, however, do not multiply by themselves. They need the cell machinery of the host for replication.
- Around two-thirds of all infections in humans are caused by viruses.
- The current COVID-19 outbreak caused by a coronavirus, SARS-CoV2, has brought this struggle to light once again.
- Coronavirus has the upper hand now: The virus seems highly successful because it spreads rapidly from human to human and has a lower rate of mortality.
- Humans have faced new viruses at regular intervals. These include the Ebola, Zika, HIV, the Flu virus H1N1, the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) — the latter two are from the coronavirus family.
- Animal to humans: These viruses have all appeared in the last few decades, having jumped from their animal reservoirs to humans.
- Many of these viruses have a much higher mortality rate than the SARS-CoV2 that caused COVID-19.
- Victory would be at huge costs: Like before, humans will come out of the present crisis as winners but that will happen at a huge cost, in every sense of the word.
- The loss would include untimely loss of human lives, economic losses and a general loss of confidence in the human ability to deal with a tiny unknown enemy.
Steps involved in dealing with the virus
- It involves dealing with any new viral outbreak is to be able to accurately test, detect and track the spread of the virus, and isolate the infected persons to stop further spread.
- Knowing the genetic makeup of virus matters: In order to implement the first step, it is important to obtain information on the genetic makeup of the virus, which forms the basis of developing highly specific diagnostic tests.
- Three types of tests are being used which have different advantages associated with them and are based on different technologies. These are described below-
1. What is the RT-PCR technique?
- Currently, the most reliable and widely-used test is based on a technique called RT-PCR (Reverse Transcription Time Polymerase Chain Reaction).
- This test aims to detect the viral RNA, the genetic material of SARS-CoV2.
- The testing begins with the careful collection of swabs taken from the nose or the back of the throat of the patient and extraction of the viral RNA.
- However, this extracted viral RNA from the swab is too tiny an amount for direct detection.
- Amplification: The RT-PCR, through many different reactions that include the conversion of viral RNA to DNA — its amplification and detection — makes it possible to confirm the presence or absence of the virus.
- The testing kits contain all chemicals and materials required for carrying out the RT-PCR based tests, which are performed by government-approved laboratories such as India’s National Institute of Virology.
- However, many more testing centres, including those run by private players, have now been allowed to carry out the tests in many countries to bridge the huge demand and supply gap.
- Why testing matters? It is now clear that countries which were able to scale up the testing of the virus in patients at an early stage were able to control the spread of the disease far better than those which did not.
- Only viable control measure: Given that there is no cure or vaccine for the control of COVID-19, testing of infected patients much more quickly and tracking their contacts to isolate them till they clear off the virus is currently the only viable control measure.
2. How CRISPR is proving helpful in scaling up the testing?
- There is good news of a relatively new but powerful technology called CRISPR (Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats).
- CRISPR is highly specific in directly detecting viral RNA and confirming the presence or absence of the virus.
- Interestingly, viruses also attack bacteria and the discovery of CRISPR itself was based on understanding how bacteria cut off the viruses.
- What are the advantages of CRISPR-based test? The CRISPR-based test is quick and circumvents the need for both expert handling as well as PCR machines and can be done at multiple locations in about half an hour.
- It can also fend off delays and other logistic problems in collection and transportation of test samples.
- These tests are being validated and readied for approval.
- Two companies, separately founded by the two scientists who discovered the CRISPR technique, have also announced that they are ready with their CRISPR-based test for validation and approval.
- Test in 10 minutes: They have claimed that these tests can be performed within 10 minutes and can be conducted by using a paper strip format.
- Test in 5 minutes: Another company, Abbott Laboratories, has recently announced the approval of their portable test for coronavirus, which the company claims can provide the results in five minutes.
- Such a point of care test will not only greatly enhance the speed of large-scale testing but will also relieve the tremendous pressure faced by frontline healthcare providers.
3. Serological tests to detect the realistic information on the spread of the virus
- Why we need serological tests? The above described RT-PCR and the newly developed CRISPR based tests are needed for scaling up the testing.
- But many individuals infected with the virus do not show symptoms of the disease and recover completely.
- How to test these cases to gather realistic information on the spread of the virus?
- Such information will be necessary for designing future control strategies.
- How serological tests work? This is done with serological tests, which are carried out in blood samples collected from a large population and are based on the detection of antibodies that are produced in response to the viral infection.
- Advantage of the serological tests: These tests are relatively easier to develop and use, less expensive, and also do not need much sophisticated infrastructure or highly trained manpower.
- Serological tests for COVID-19 have already been developed by many groups and are already in use.
- India also plans to carry out serological tests to examine the actual spread of the disease in different parts of the country.
Conclusion
Lockdowns are essential to control the disease but long-term strategies to deal with the disease would be based on the knowledge of its actual spread. The newly-developed point of care tests should be successfully able to bridge the existing gap in the testing of the virus. This will also assist in gearing up facilities to treat the severely sick as well as relieve and protect frontline health providers. Meanwhile, hopefully, efficient drugs therapies and efficacious vaccines against COVID-19 will also be discovered soon.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Mains level: Paper 3- Financial stress on the states and what centre should do to address the problem.
Context
Concerned over the impact on their revenues, several state governments planned cuts in salaries of government employees.
State finances showing the signs of stress
- The fiscal crisis stemming from the disruption in economic activity due to the coronavirus is now beginning to show.
- Concerned over the impact on their revenues, several state governments planned cuts in salaries of government employees.
- The stress to state finances stems from multiple sources.
- First, as economic growth falters, their own income streams, for instance, revenues from petroleum products, real estate transactions, will slow down further, as will GST collections, and the amount collected through the compensation cess will not be enough to meet budgeted expectations.
- Second, as the Centre’s own revenues also slow down, transfers to states will take a hit. It is quite likely that tax devolution to states, which has been budgeted at Rs 7.8 lakh crore in 2020-21, will not materialise.
- Collectively, state expenditure far outstrips that by the Centre, with revenues falling short, any cutbacks in their spending, at a time when there is a need for a bold fiscal expansion, will further aggravate the economic stress.
- Need assurance of adequate resource: Thus, states, which are at the frontline of fighting the public health crisis, need to be assured of adequate resources.
Increase in the WMA limit will not address the issue
- Limit increased by 30%: The Reserve Bank of India decided to increase the ways and means advances (WMA) limit by 30 per cent for state governments.
- What is WMA? The WMA is a temporary liquidity arrangement with the RBI which helps governments tide over their short-term liquidity woes.
- A short term measure: While states have been averse to opting for this facility in the past, and the new WMA limits may need to be revised further if the mismatch rises, this is a short-term measure, and does not address the underlying issue of significant revenue slippages.
- Contradictory impulse: Under the existing fiscal deficit constraint, the collapse in revenues will force states to cut back on spending, imparting a contractionary impulse to the economy.
Way forward
- The Centre must take several steps to ensure an adequate flow of resources to states.
- First, it must immediately clear all its pending dues to state governments.
- Second, while it is cheaper for the Centre to borrow and transfer to states, even though the spreads between state and central government bonds have now widened, making state borrowing more costly, states must be allowed to borrow more.
- Third, as some state chief ministers have suggested, the fiscal deficit limits imposed on states must be relaxed.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Not Much
Mains level: 9 minutes light-out and its impact on grids
In his address to the nation, our PM has urged people across to turn off the lights in their homes for 9 minutes on April 5, starting at 9 pm. In response to this appeal, grid managers across states have flagged some risks.
Why is the 9-minute exercise a problem?
- India is one of the largest synchronous interconnected grids in the world, with an installed capacity of about 370 GW (3,70,000 MW), and a normal baseload power demand of roughly 150 GW.
- The big worry is that just before 9 pm there may be unprecedented load reduction, followed by a sudden increase in load post at 9.09 pm.
- The concern is that grid frequency should not swing beyond permissible limits and that all generators across the country must give frequency response as per the Grid Code.
- During this 9-minute lights out exercise, up to 10,000-15,000 MW of power demand could to drop suddenly and then come on stream a few minutes later.
How does grid function normally?
- Power System Operation Corporation Ltd (POSOCO), the national electricity grid operator, projects daily demand for power and regulates supply from power generators based on these projections.
- Frequency reflects the load generation balance in the grid at a particular instant and is one of the most important parameters for assessment of the security of the country’s power system.
- The nominal frequency is 50 hertz and POSOCO endeavours to maintain frequency within a permissible band (49.9- 50.5 hertz), primarily by balancing the demand-supply equation.
Impacts of light-out
- The frequency needs to be maintained within this range as all the electrical equipment and appliances at our homes are designed to perform safely and efficiently in a certain power supply band.
- An increase in frequency results in an increase in the voltage and a decrease in frequency results in a decrease in voltage.
- Exigency does occur during an outage at a power plant or the tripping of a transmission line or a sudden change in electrical demand.
- The grid operator needs to ensure that there is an automatic corrective response manually by curtailing demand or ramping generation from another source within a really short period of time.
- Handling imbalances are the most crucial function of the grid operator.
What are the key areas of concern?
While the possibility of the grid tripping on account of this is highly unlikely, operators expect a “jerk”. While the system is generally planned for an outage of the single largest unit outage, there are two riders:
1) Lockdown has severed domestic consumption
- One, the grid load is primarily on account of the domestic load now, especially since the lockdown implemented.
- The normal baseload power demand of roughly 150 gigawatts has already dropped by 20 per cent since the lockdown announcement as most of the industry and commercial establishments are not operational.
- With hotels and factories, malls, railway stations, airports closed, the domestic load is the predominant load.
- So the lighting load as a percentage of total loads is much higher now and the impact of a sudden drop in lighting load could be more accentuated than during regular times.
2) Fear of complete power-offs
- The second concern is if housing clusters and societies switch off mains, or if overzealous discoms switch off street lighting or even feeders to show compliance.
- During this part of the year, domestic load peaks at about 9 pm.
- This load could then be impacted much more than what’s being anticipated in the normal course, a concern that grid operators are flagging.
Why is this demand of significance in such a big grid?
- The domestic load is about 30-32 per cent of total load during normal times.
- Of India’s total electricity demand load pattern, industrial and agricultural consumption accounts for 40 per cent and 20 per cent load, while commercial electricity consumption accounts for 8 per cent of demand.
- So, theoretically, if only lighting load goes off, it should not have a major impact on grid frequency during normal times.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Tropical Butterfly Conservatory
Mains level: Significance of butterflies for ecosystem
The Tropical Butterfly Conservatory Tiruchirappalli (TBCT) has been developed in Tamil Nadu’s Tiruchirappalli to create awareness among the public about the importance of the butterfly and its ecology.
Tropical Butterfly Conservatory
- The TBC is located in the Upper Anaicut Reserve Forest, sandwiched between the Cauvery and Kollidam rivers in Tiruchirappalli.
- It was inaugurated during November 2015 at Tiruchirappalli with the objective of propagating the importance of butterflies and conserving the biodiversity of the district through environmental education.
- It is spread over 27 acres and is considered to be Asia’s largest butterfly park.
- The park has an outdoor as well as indoor conservatory, a ‘Nakshatra Vanam’ and a ‘Rasi Vanam’ in addition to a breeding lab for non-scheduled species.
- So far, about 109 butterfly species have been observed here.
Conservation measures
- Eggs of non-scheduled butterfly species are collected and bred in captivity in the in-house incubation laboratory by keeping them in ventilated plastic containers with the leaves of host plants as feed.
- After attaining the transformation of larva (caterpillar) and pupa (transition), the adult butterfly finally comes out with gorgeous colours and at this stage they are released into the natural habitat.
- Non-scheduled butterfly species are bred and released by the park authorities into their natural surroundings.
Significance of butterflies
- Butterflies are known for their intrinsic, aesthetic, educational, scientific, ecological, health and economic values.
- As butterflies form an important part of nature’s food web, it is very essential to protect the species for ecological balance.
- They play a key role in the pollination of plant species, the global food chain depends on their well-being.
Various threats
- The major threats to butterfly diversity are destruction, degradation and fragmentation of their habitats, grazing, fires and application of pesticides and weedicides in agricultural and urban ecosystems.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Operation Sanjeevani
Mains level: India-Maldives Relations
An Indian Air Force (IAF) C-130J transport aircraft o delivered 6.2 tonne of essential medicines and hospital consumables to Maldives under Operation Sanjeevani.
Operation Sanjeevani
- At the request of the govt. of Maldives, the IAF aircraft activated Operation Sanjeevani and lifted these medicines from airports in New Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Madurai before flying to the Maldives.
- Among other things, these medicines include influenza vaccines, anti-viral drugs such as lopinavir and ritonavir — which have been used to treat patients with COVID-19 in other countries.
- The flights are being operated on commercial basis following demands from pharmaceutical companies and their intermediaries and will carry cargo on inbound as well as outbound flights.
- The cargo operations will help the airline earn some revenue at a time there is a ban on passenger flights and the entire fleet is grounded.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Mains level: Paper 2- Government should consider taking control of the private healthcare sector to deal with the Covid-19 outbreak.
Context
As India enters the second week of a national lockdown imposed in response to COVID-19, it is still unclear how well prepared the healthcare system is in dealing with the pandemic.
Need for roping in the private healthcare
- No indication of an increase in expenditure on health: A preparedness plan has to address all levels of care in terms of infrastructure, equipment, testing facilities and human resources in both the public and private sectors.
- However, so far, the Central and State governments have given little indication of bringing an increase in public expenditure on health.
- So, an already overburdened public health system will be unable to meet the increase in moderate and severe cases of COVID-19 that would require hospitalisation.
- Need for the comprehensive national policy: While some individual private sector companies have come forward with offers of creating capacity and making it available to COVID-19 patients, there is a need for a comprehensive national policy to ensure that private healthcare capacity is made available to the public.
- Some states like Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh have already roped in the private sector to provide free treatment.
What the government should do?
- Provide universal health service: The governments at the Centre and in States have to take responsibility for providing universal health services free of charge and accessible to all.
- Tap into private sector capacity: This will require governments to not just expand the capacity within the public sector, but also to tap into the available capacity in the private sector.
- Faced with a serious health emergency, the silence of the government on the expected role of the private sector is intriguing.
- Include COVID-19 testing in PM-JAY: The National Health Authority has recommended that the testing and treatment of COVID-19 be included in the PM-Jan Arogya Yojana (PM-JAY) but this proposal is still awaiting clearance.
- Form the central command: The governance of the health service system is clearly fragmented and has created anxiety among the public.
- There is a lack of a visible central command, which should be created under the supervision of the Union Health Minister, aided by a team of experts.
- They should be tasked to make policies as and when required and communicate them to State governments, taking into account an evolving situation.
- Ensure that there is no cost to the patient: There have been some tentative measures taken by States to allow individuals seeking testing for COVID-19 to access private laboratories at subsidised rates.
- At present, the government has put a cap on the cost at ₹4,500 per test, which is a burden for even a middle-class patient.
- The poor will clearly have no access to this and the government itself does not have adequate facilities to meet the increasing demand. It is here that the government needs to ensure that there is no cost to the patient.
- Create adequate testing facilities: At this point, and certainly, before the lockdown is lifted, it is absolutely essential that adequate testing and quarantine facilities are created.
- The Central government has already taken over some private hotels to accommodate persons quarantined for COVID-19.
- One way of expanding such facilities would be for the government to ‘take over’ private corporate laboratories and hospitals for a limited period.
- Standard treatment protocol: The political directive for such a move needs to come from the Central government while ensuring that the Ministry of Health provides standard treatment protocols for health personnel.
Learning lessons from Spanish and British experience
- The Spanish government issued an order bringing hospitals in the large private corporate sector under public control for a limited period.
- This tough decision was taken with the understanding that existing public healthcare facilities would not be able to cope with the sudden, if short-term, rise in COVID-19 cases.
- British trade unions have demanded that the government make the 8,000 beds in 570 private hospitals in the country available.
- They have argued that while beds in private hospitals are lying empty, there is a severe shortage of beds in public hospitals.
- The unions have also been critical of the U.K. government decision to rent these beds at an exorbitant cost to the exchequer.
Way forward
- Rope in the private healthcare sector: In India, private corporate hospitals have, in the past, received government subsidies in various forms and it is now time to seek repayment from them.
- They are also well poised to provide specialised care and have the expertise and infrastructure to do so.
- Bring in the universal public healthcare: Universal public healthcare is essential not only to curb outbreaks but also to ensure crisis preparedness and the realisation of the promise of the right to health.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Mains level: Paper 2- The SC order on migrant labour rises several questions dealing with the fundamental rights.
Context
On March 31, the Supreme Court of India (SC), entertaining a writ petition under Article 32, passed an order which raises more questions than it seeks to answer.
What were the issues involved in the writ petition?
- The writ petition was purportedly filed in the public interest, “for redressal of grievances of migrant workers in different parts of the country”.
- Directions which are in favour of the Union government: The Court has proceeded to issue several directions which are clearly in favour of the respondent, the Union of India.
- The following three directions were uncalled for:
What were the directions issued by the Supreme Court?
- One, that under section 54 of the Disaster Management Act, 2005, persons can be punished with imprisonment, which may extend to one year, or with a fine for making or circulating a false alarm or warning.
- Disobedience of the order including an advisory by a public servant would result in punishment under section 188 of the IPC.
- Two, all concerned, that is the state government, public authorities and citizens will faithfully comply with directives, advisory and orders issued by the Union of India in letter and spirit in the interest of public safety.
- Three, the media should only refer to and publish the official version of the Government of India, publishing a daily bulletin.
- The SC observations about migrant labourers: After giving substantial reliefs to the Union of India, the SC proceeded to make mere observations about migrant labourers by directing that they should be dealt with “in a humane manner”.
- And that “trained counsellors, community leaders and volunteers must be engaged along with the police to supervise the welfare activities of migrants”.
- The SC has virtually absolved the government for its handling of the situation.
What was the basis for issuing orders and issues with it
- The basis of the directions is a statement made by the Solicitor General of India and some status reports to the effect that “the exodus of migrant labourers was triggered due to panic created by some fake/misleading news and social media”.
- What is an issue with basis? The SC has proceeded on assumptions and surmises which were untested and unchallenged.
- What the court should have done? In a matter of such seriousness, the least it should have done was to have appointed an amicus curiae (a friend of the court) to assist it rather than simply accept the self-serving status reports and statements made before it.
- The Court overlooked the fact that in India, hundreds of millions of people work during the day and are paid at the end of the day and then go and buy their foodstuffs.
- They have no savings, nor do they have foodgrains stored.
- It is surprising that the Court, the custodian of fundamental rights, should be oblivious to this reality.
Issue of press freedom
- Citizens have the right to freedom of speech and expression. Press freedom is a part of this. Citizens have the right to receive information as well.
- Article 13 (2) of the Constitution says that the state cannot make any law which takes away or abridges the fundamental rights.
- If Parliament cannot do so, the Supreme Court — the upholder of the constitutional rights — surely cannot do so.
- The SC has itself held in M Nagraj (2006): “A right becomes a fundamental right because it has foundational value. The fundamental right is a limitation on the power of the State. A Constitution, and in particular that part of it which protects and which entrenches fundamental rights and freedoms to which all persons in the State are to be entitled, is to be given a generous and purposive construction.”
- The SC should not have made all media subservient to the government by directing that the former “refer to and publish the official version about the developments”.
- Such an order could be justified only during an emergency and that too by the executive, subject to challenge before the courts.
Conclusion
The SC has given a carte blanche to the authorities, and citizens appear to have no avenues of redress. Most of all, by condemning the media and social media, holding them responsible for fake news, the SC has done a great disservice to the institution which provides information to citizens and upholds democracy.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: FRBM Act.
Mains level: Paper 3- Opportunity to bring in reform that could benefit us in the medium term as well.
Context
Coronavirus pandemic offers a trigger to fundamentally strengthen the Indian economy, and protect the vulnerable. This requires cooperation between the Centre and states.
Opportunity to do things good for the medium term
- Minimising the impact on the vulnerable: The current crisis is so terrible in its toll of life and livelihoods that the need of the hour must be minimising the health, humanitarian and economic costs, especially for the most vulnerable.
- Rising expenditure may force hard choices: Rising public expenditures to help tens of millions of workers and their families alongside plummeting resources will inevitably force hard choices.
- Appropriately, much of the policy discussion and the government’s first response have focussed on addressing the immediate imperatives.
This crisis is also an opportunity to do things that are not only good for now but for the medium term as well. Few are discussed below.
1. Revamp macro-fiscal framework
- Massive fiscal expenditure may require: If the pandemic follows the exponential trajectory seen in other countries, the crisis is going to entail massive fiscal expenditures, perhaps up to 4-5 per cent of GDP, much more than what the government has announced.
- Macro-fiscal targets have to be exceeded: Consequently, the basic macro-fiscal framework — for example, the Centre’s FRBM target of 3.5 per cent of GDP, and the revenue and deficit estimates for 2020-21 — has been fundamentally overtaken by events.
- Allow states to exceed deficit targets: The Centre should immediately announce that even the states will be allowed to exceed their fiscal responsibility legislation targets because they will be in the front line of taking action against the pandemic.
- Opportunity to review the FRBM: The crisis is an opportunity to revisit the entire framework.
- The focus on unattainable targets, the fact that the FRBM has been honoured only in the breach, and the consequences in terms of loss in budgetary integrity and transparency need serious review, even overhaul.
- Once the crisis ebbs, India might be looking at overall deficits well in excess of 10 per cent and debt levels much greater than those today. If the starting point is going to be so different, the old goals and targets won’t retain meaning.
2. Remake finance and adopt a data-driven lending model
- Going into the crisis, India’s corporate and financial sector were under severe stress — the so-called Four Balance Sheet problem.
- This crisis will, unfortunately, add consumers and small and medium enterprises to that This will be an extremely hard — but critical — problem to address.
- A takeover of bad loans will be unavoidable: To allow banks to revert to normalcy, a largescale takeover of their bad loans will be unavoidable not least because the current bankruptcy process will be severely inadequate.
- Opt for the tech. driven lending model: This crisis opens the door for the new lending model proposed by Nandan Nilekani i.e. technology-driven lending.
- What is Technology-driven lending? It uses data rather than collateral, allowing the 10 million-odd businesses with deep digital footprints (for example, based on GST invoices), to get loans from the thriving ecosystem of new financial players.
3. Complete JAM
- One of the major achievements of the government was to create the plumbing — Jan Dhan, Aadhaar, and Mobile (JAM) — to augment weak state capacity.
- How JAM is proving helpful in this crisis? The state could now make cash transfers swiftly, with reduced leakages, whether as income support, scholarships or pensions, and potentially eventually implementing a Universal Basic Income.
- In the current crisis, it is proving to be an important part of the social safety net that is helping to cushion the most adversely affected groups.
- JAM is not complete yet: But the JAM plumbing is still incomplete because there is a “last mile problem”.
- Not all those with bank accounts can access money either because of difficult geography or because bank functionaries give incomplete or misleading information.
- Opportunity to fix the shortcomings: This crisis is an opportunity not just to leverage JAM to enhance cash transfers, but to empower citizens. This will require the government to identify remaining weaknesses on a war footing and fix them.
4. Re-shape Indian agriculture
- Need to create one market for agriculture: The need to preserve supply chains in agriculture in times of crisis reinforces the need to create one market for agriculture across India.
- This requires eliminating legislation like the Essential Commodities Act and the panoply of resulting restrictions.
- Phase-out subsidies and opt for DBT: Second, the crisis has shown the possibilities created by JAM and direct transfers.
- Phasing out in cycles: Building on PM-Kisan and various state-level schemes, pernicious subsidies, especially for fertilisers and power, could be phased out over 5-6 crop cycles.
- This could be done through small but frequent increases in fertiliser prices (the technique used to eliminate fuel subsidies).
5. Focus on Make in India
- The critical source for almost all the essential Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) used to manufacture drugs, the ability also to fight death, is largely made in China.
- India was once a major producer of such APIs but lost ground to China.
- Frame intelligent industrial policy: The crisis should be the opportunity to go on war footing to do intelligent industrial policy — incentives, regulatory help, trade policy — that would resurrect India’s manufacturing capability.
- Previous Make in India attempts have shown lackadaisical results.
- Focus on the pharmaceutical sector: The crisis creates the momentum to focus the effort on one sector, pharmaceuticals. As a result, the ability to save lives could be Made in India, again.
6. Establish migrants as full citizens
- Need to change the place-based benefits to person-based benefits: The plight of migrant workers reinforces the need to move from immobile place-based benefits to mobile person-based benefits, which is possible as the JAM infrastructure is strengthened.
- Portability of benefits: This will require portability of benefits, including access to the PDS, Ujjwala and Ayushman Bharat.
- The crisis has highlighted the travails of migrant labour and their second-class status.
- The large gap between the organised and unorganised sector worker: It reflects a broader chasm between the few securely employed in the organised sector and the vast majority subject to the vicissitudes of the unorganised sector.
- Differences not just in the levels of income but in their volatility as well as differential access to social insurance (healthcare, pensions) distinguish these two classes.
7. Upgrade Health
- Weakest state capacity in health and education: State capacity over 70 years in India has been weakest in the areas of education and health.
- The COVID-19 pandemic must lead to a serious strengthening of the health infrastructure for dealing with pandemics.
- Set up an apex institution on the lines of US’s CDC: To start with, India needs an apex institution like the US’ Centers for Disease Control with a network across all the states.
- They should invest in disease surveillance systems, set up diagnostics labs, be able to gather real-time data and analyse them etc.
- The Taiwan model, which has been so successful in this pandemic, could be studied.
- More fundamentally, the crisis is a wake-up call to address India’s severe limitations in the provision of basic health.
- Focus on basic public health: Creating tertiary health facilities must be subservient to strengthening basic public health and early childhood care.
8. Build a National Solidarity Fund
- The severe downturn in economic activity ahead will savagely hit the informal poor.
- How would the Solidarity fund be set up? The government should consider a Solidarity Fund with a one-time annual contribution coming from the wealthy and the employees in the organised sector.
- Contribution to the fund: This contribution can take the form of taxes or elimination of middle-class subsidies identified in the Economic Survey of 2016.
- The wealthy could contribute via a wealth tax with thresholds set by property values say above Rs 5 crore.
- Salaried employees in the public and private sectors could contribute via a small, progressive tax on salaries and pensions.
- Middle-class subsidies that could be eliminated include interest and tax deductions for small savers, favourable taxation of gold and other luxuries.
- Wealth taxes and elimination of subsidies for the rich should, in any event, be part of the long-run reform agenda to reduce growing inequality.
Conclusion
These examples illustrate how the crisis can be converted to an opportunity to fundamentally strengthen the Indian economy, and protect the vulnerable. A common thread to many of these actions — indeed prerequisites for their success — is cooperation between the Centre and states. Central direction combined with flexibility and nimbleness in the states and local bodies is India’s way through the crisis and beyond.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: Geo-fencing
Mains level: Geo-fencing and its application
The Centre is using powers under the Indian Telegraph Act to “fetch information” from telecom companies every 15 minutes to track COVID-19 cases across the country.
What is Geo-fencing?
- A geofence is a virtual perimeter for a real-world geographic area.
- A geo-fence could be dynamically generated—as in a radius around a point location, or a geo-fence can be a predefined set of boundaries (such as school zones or neighbourhood boundaries).
- The use of a geofence is called geofencing, and one example of usage involves a location-aware device of a location-based service (LBS) user entering or exiting a geo-fence.
- This activity could trigger an alert to the device’s user as well as messaging to the geo-fence operator.
Tracking COVID-19 patients
- The government has tested an application that triggers e-mails and SMS alerts to an authorised government agency if a person has jumped quarantine or escaped from isolation, based on the person’s mobile phone’s cell tower location.
- This “geo-fencing” is accurate by up to 300 m.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: GRACE-FO Mission
Mains level: Groundwater recharge and conservation efforts
NASA releases new global maps mapping groundwater, soil wetness using GRACE-FO satellites.
GRACE-FO Mission
- The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission is a partnership between NASA and the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ).
- GRACE-FO is a successor to the original GRACE mission, which orbited Earth from 2002-2017.
- It carries on the extremely successful work of its predecessor while testing a new technology designed to dramatically improve the already remarkable precision of its measurement system.
Why need such data on groundwater and soil moisture?
- Groundwater and soil moisture — which depicts wetness in soil — are crucial for irrigation and crop growth.
- The need to constantly monitor groundwater and soil moisture is important since both act as useful indicators for predicting drought conditions.
- One of the goals of the new global maps is to make the same consistent product available in all parts of the world, especially in countries that do not have any groundwater-monitoring infrastructure.
- The data would help in managing the selection of appropriate agricultural crops and predicting yields.
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Note4Students
From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level: BCG Vaccine
Mains level: Coronovirus and the hunt for its vaccine
According to a US-based research, a combination of reduced morbidity and mortality could make the Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination a “game-changer” in the fight against novel coronavirus.
What is BCG Vaccine?
- Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine is a vaccine primarily used against tuberculosis (TB).
- In countries where TB or leprosy is common, one dose is recommended in healthy babies as close to the time of birth as possible.
- In areas where tuberculosis is not common, only children at high risk are typically immunized, while suspected cases of tuberculosis are individually tested for and treated.
How can TB vaccine help fight COVID-19?
- The BCG vaccine contains a live but weakened strain of tuberculosis bacteria that provokes the body to develop antibodies to attack TB bacteria.
- This is called an adaptive immune response, because the body develops a defense against a specific disease-causing microorganism, or pathogen, after encountering it.
- Most vaccines create an adaptive immune response to a single pathogen.
- Unlike other vaccines, the BCG vaccine may also boost the innate immune system, first-line defenses that keep a variety of pathogens from entering the body or from establishing an infection.
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