Central Idea

Defence Minister invoked the concept of the “Prisoner’s Dilemma” to emphasize the importance of international collaboration over competing interests.
He highlighted the need for countries to find solutions that promote cooperation, trust-building, and risk mitigation in international relations.

What is the Prisoner’s Dilemma?

Game Theory Basis: The Prisoner’s Dilemma is a renowned concept in Game Theory, a scientific branch that studies decision-making in various scenarios.
Complex Decision-Making: It illustrates that real-life decisions involve complexity and uncertainty, and outcomes depend on the actions of others.
Paradox of Conflict: When applied to international relations, it reveals situations where countries engage in actions, such as arms races, driven by mutual fear and mistrust.

Crime Investigation: Imagine two individuals, A and B, facing questioning for a crime without strong evidence.
Police Offer: The police offer them a choice:
1. If one implicates the other, the informant goes free, while the implicated receives a 15-year jail term.
2. If both stay silent, both serve one year in prison.
3. If both confess, they each get 10 years.

Optimal Outcome: On the surface, staying silent seems best, resulting in both serving just one year in prison.
Uncertainty: However, if one stays silent, they risk a 15-year sentence if the other implicates them.
Paradox: To avoid the maximum penalty, confessing becomes the rational choice if trust in the other’s silence is uncertain.
Cooperation Ideal: The best outcome lies in cooperation, where both prisoners stay silent, serving only one year.

Business Strategy: Similar dilemmas occur in business, such as price wars between companies selling identical products. Cooperation to maintain sustainable pricing can lead to healthier profits.
Geopolitical Agreements: Countries can avoid ruinous arms races and protect their economies by establishing ground rules in geopolitics, fostering cooperation over competition.