Central Idea

• Saudi Arabia is taking a significant step towards mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict by hosting peace talks on August 5 and 6 in Jeddah.
• The talks come amidst ongoing hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, with both sides unwilling to compromise on their respective visions for peace.

Upcoming Peace Talks in Jeddah

• Participants: The UK, EU, India, South Africa, Poland, and the US National Security Advisor have confirmed their attendance. Russia, having rejected Ukraine’s peace plan, has not been invited.
• Goal: Ukraine aims to garner support for its 10-point peace plan and promote the restoration of lasting and just peace. The talks are seen as a constructive way to involve non-aligned countries and promote third-party mediation beyond the West.

Current status of the war

• Military Standoff: Ukraine is determined to fight back, supported by military aid from Europe and the US.
• Unlikely Peace Talks: The United Nations Secretary-General expressed doubts about the possibility of peace negotiations at this stage, given both sides’ conviction of their ability to win on the battlefield.
• Divergent Views: While both Russia and Ukraine express openness to talks, they vehemently disagree on the terms of peace. Ukraine insists on the withdrawal of Russian troops and the restoration of its territorial integrity, while Russia seeks recognition of redrawn borders, including annexed territories.

Previous (Failed) Negotiations

• Early Talks: In the initial stages of the conflict, talks for temporary ceasefires and humanitarian corridors took place.
• War atrocities: However, direct peace negotiations have not occurred since May last year due to mounting evidence of war atrocities and attacks on civilians.

China’s Peace Plan and African Efforts

• China’s 12-Point Plan: Released in February, China’s plan called for the ceasing of hostilities, support for territorial integrity, and the abandonment of a cold war mentality. It was seen as skewed in favor of Russia and a diplomatic attempt by China to engage in the peace process.
• African Proposal: Seven African countries led by South Africa proposed a 10-point plan for recognizing sovereignty, prisoner release, foodgrain exports, de-escalation, and prompt peace negotiations. The plan aimed to address the conflict’s impact on African nations’ food security.

Status of the War

• Kerch Bridge Incident: A terrorist attack on the Kerch Bridge led to Russia terminating the Black Sea Grain Initiative, further impacting grain shipments from Ukraine.
• Ukraine’s Counter-Offensive: Ukraine continues its counter-offensive efforts, achieving advances in some regions but facing challenges in others.
• US-Supplied Cluster Bombs: Ukraine’s use of US-supplied cluster bombs has been confirmed, effective against Russian defensive positions.
• NATO Entry Denied: Ukraine’s last-ditch effort to secure an invitation for NATO membership was not successful.
• Ukraine attacks Moscow: At least 3 different Ukrainian-made drones have been used in attacks inside Russia, including Moscow.

Nature of the Conflict

• Territorial Disputes: The conflict centers around territorial disputes and geopolitical interests, leading to extensive missile attacks and drone strikes.
• Cold War Wounds: Historical contestations and ideological clashes contribute to the Ukraine crisis.
• NATO Expansion: Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership and Russian interests in the Black Sea are key factors in the conflict.

India’s Position in the Conflict

• Exercising strategic autonomy: India practices strategic autonomy, maintaining a nuanced neutrality between the US-led West and Russia.
• Favor for Russia: India abstains from supporting the US-led Western coalition, focusing on economic relationships with both parties.
• Symbolic Criticisms: India emphasizes the importance of respecting territorial integrity while calling for an immediate end to violence and diplomatic solutions.
• Condemnation: PM Modi openly appealed to Mr. Putin for peace, highlighting the pursuit of diplomatic solutions.

Challenges to Ending the War

• Proxy War: External players, including the US and NATO, complicate the conflict with their strategic interests.
• Sovereignty Disputes: Unresolved territorial disputes fuel ongoing hostilities.
• Ideological Divide: Clashes between Ukraine’s European aspirations and Russia’s sphere of influence add to tensions.
• Military Support: Foreign military assistance to both parties sustains the conflict.
• Economic Interests: Energy resources and Europe’s dependence on Russian gas play a role.
• Lack of Trust: A deep lack of trust hinders lasting agreements.

Conclusion

• The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a challenging and complex issue with no easy resolution in sight.
• The upcoming peace talks in Jeddah represent a step towards international mediation, involving influential players from various regions.

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