Central Idea

• Contradiction in Global Aspirations: Despite calls for peace, 2023 witnessed the continuation and emergence of significant conflicts, notably between Russia and Ukraine, and in the Gaza Strip.
• China’s Stance: Amidst its economic challenges, China’s aggressive posture remains a concern for the West and India, adding to the global tension.

2023: Strategic Realities and Challenges

Crisis in the Middle East: The Hamas attack disrupted efforts to normalize Israel-Arab relations, leading to a devastating response from Israel and derailing the reconciliation process.

1. Stress in India-US Ties: Allegations of an Indian official’s involvement in an assassination plot have strained relations, with India promising to investigate if provided with information.
2. Russia-Ukraine War Fatigue: The prolonged conflict sees the West grappling with funding challenges, while Russia, despite sanctions, maintains resilience, partly due to its closeness with China.
3. India’s Maldives Challenge: The new government’s request for India to withdraw military personnel and terminate agreements reflects its proximity to China, complicating India’s strategic position.
4. China, the Biggest Worry: The ongoing border standoff and China’s influence in the region, including its ties with Russia and the Maldives, continue to be India’s primary strategic concerns.
5. G20 and Global South Positioning: India’s leadership in the G20 and its role in uniting the Global South reflect its aspiration to continue the legacy of Non-Alignment adapted to modern realities.
6. Engagement in Kabul: India’s cautious engagement with the Taliban and coordination for consular services indicate a nuanced approach to Afghanistan, balancing security and diplomatic needs.

2024: Anticipating Challenges and Opportunities

• Impact of Lok Sabha Elections: The election outcome will significantly influence India’s foreign policy, with a stronger mandate potentially leading to more assertive stances, while a weaker mandate might reflect coalition compulsions.
• US & Canada Relationships: Navigating the complexities arising from the assassination plot allegations and maintaining robust ties with both nations will be crucial for India.
• New Government in Pakistan: The post-election scenario in Pakistan might offer a window for re-engagement, depending on the political dynamics and India’s strategic choices.
• Outcome in Bangladesh: India’s interest in the continuation of Sheikh Hasina’s government reflects security and connectivity priorities, with the opposition viewed with caution.
• Continuing Deadlock with China: The border standoff and its potential escalation will be a critical factor in India’s security and diplomatic strategy, especially in an election year.
• West Asia Dynamics: India’s evolving stance in the Israel-Hamas conflict and its implications for its position in the Global South will be closely watched, with a focus on balancing relations and principles.
• Future of the War in Ukraine: India’s balancing act between its economic interests and international pressures, especially in its relationship with Russia, will continue to be a delicate matter.
• Trade Pacts and Tech Partnerships: Finalizing trade agreements and enhancing tech partnerships with the West will be key areas of focus, with potential major developments expected in 2024.

Conclusion

• Balancing Act: India’s foreign policy in the coming years will involve navigating a complex array of global conflicts, bilateral tensions, and internal political dynamics.
• Strategic Posture: The outcomes of various global and regional conflicts, along with India’s own electoral politics, will shape its strategic and foreign policy posture, reflecting a blend of continuity and change.

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