Context

This increase in global food prices which manifested itself in the three food price crises since the 1960s offers some pertinent lessons for global food systems and the international community.

Managing year-to-year volatility Vs. periodic spikes in food prices

• Year-to-year volatility is easily managed by most countries through changes in their trade and domestic policies.
• But steep and severe periodic price shocks can lead to some sort of a crisis at the global and national levels.
• Implications: The crisis can emerge in the form of food shortages, trade disruptions, a rise and spread in hunger and poverty levels, depletion of foreign exchange reserves, a strain on a nation’s fiscal resources, a threat to peace, and even social unrest in some places.

History of food crises after since adoption of Green Revolution

• Data from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the World Bank/International Monetary Fund show that since the onset and the adoption of Green Revolution technology in the early 1960s, the world has been struck thrice by food price crises.
• First shock-1973-76: The first shock was experienced during 1973-76 when the food price index (based on prices in U.S. dollars) doubled in nominal terms.
• Declining trend: For the next two decades, food prices in real terms followed a declining trend and were at their lowest around 2002.
• After this, nominal as well as the real prices of food began rising.
• Second crisis-2008: This momentum built up to culminate in the next food price crisis of 2008, which was further intensified by 2011.
• While the price shock began softening after 2014, food prices did not move back to their pre-2006 level.
• Third crisis-2020: This time the increase in the food price index happened very quickly and it turned out to be very big – it has taken the food price index to its historically highest level.
• Cause outside agriculture: All the three food price crises were triggered by factors outside agriculture.
• They were not caused by any serious shortfall in agriculture production.
• The interval between crises is reducing: The interval between two consecutive price shocks has narrowed down considerably and the severity of shock is turning stronger.

What are the causes responsible for the recent food price crisis?

• 1] Covid-19 and Ukraine crisis: It was triggered by supply disruptions due to COVID-19 and further aggravated by the Russia-Ukraine war.
• The current food price spike first began in vegetable oils and then expanded to cereals.
• Higher the global trade higher disruption: The effect of global trade disruption will be higher for commodities that are traded more and vice-versa.
• 2] Diversion of food for biofuel: Another factor underlying the rising trend and spikes in food prices is the diversion of food for biofuel needs.
• When crude prices increase beyond a certain level it becomes economical to use oilseeds and grains for biodiesel and ethanol, respectively.
• The second reason for the use of food crops for biofuel is the mandates to increase the share of renewable energy resources.
• 3] Increased cost of agrochemicals and fertilisers: Food prices are also expected to go up in the current and next harvest season because of an increase in the prices of fertilizer and other agrochemicals.

Way forward for India

• Transmission of international prices to domestic prices can be prevented only if there is no trade.
• 1] Trade policy changes: This transmission of global prices to the domestic market can be moderated through trade policy and other instruments.
• When international prices go too low, India has checks on cheap imports to protect the interests of producers; and when international prices go too high, the country liberalises imports and imposes checks on exports to ensure adequate availability and reasonable food prices for domestic consumers.
• 2] Buffer stock: The policy of having a buffer stock of food staples has also been very helpful in maintaining price stability, especially in the wake of global food crises.
• 3] Strategic liberalisation: India should continue with a policy of strategic liberalisation, as followed in the past, to balance the interests of producers and consumers.
• 4] Maintain image as a reliable and credible exporter: The importance of agriculture exports to mop up food and agriculture surplus from the country is increasing.
• Ongoing trends in domestic demand and supply imply that India will be required to dispose of 15% of its domestic food output in the overseas market by 2030.
• This underscores the need to maintain India’s image as a reliable and credible exporter.
• However, it is important to differentiate between the two situations: disturbing normal export and regulating exports exceeding the normal level.

What are the implications for India?

• Increased prices in India: Export and import in the agriculture sector constituted 13% of gross value added in agriculture during 2020-21.
• Therefore, some transmission of an increase in global prices on domestic prices is inevitable.
• Wheat export ban and implications: The recent ban on wheat exports and restrictions on the export of other food commodities by India need to be seen in the light of an abnormal situation created by spikes in international prices.
• Some experts see it as a setback to India’s image as a reliable exporter as this move is seen to disrupt (regular) export channels.
• A closer examination of data reveals that India’s action to ban or restrict food exports is not disrupting its normal exports.
• India was a very small exporter of wheat, with its share in global wheat trade ranging between 0.1% to 1% during 2015-16 to 2020-21.
• The international market is looking for around 50 million tonnes of wheat to compensate for the disruption in wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine.
• If India had not imposed a ban on wheat export, it would have resulted in a severe shortage of wheat within the country.

Global impact and suggestions

• As the steam of Green Revolution technology slowed down with the start of the 21st century, food prices began increasing in real terms.
• New breakthroughs required: The world requires new breakthroughs such as Green Revolution technology, for large-scale adoption in order to enable checks on food prices rising at a faster rate.
• Increase spending on agri-research: This in turn requires increased spending on agriculture research and development (especially by the public sector and multilateral development agencies).
• Strengthen global agri-research system: There is a need to strengthen and rejuvenate the global agri-research system under the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) which is heading towards disarray.
• Rethink biofuel protocols: Biofuel protocols have contributed to the global food crisis for the second time in the last 15 years.
• Diversion of land under food crops and food output for biofuel should be carefully calibrated with implications for food availability.

Conclusion

• The last three food price crises were primarily caused due to an increase in energy prices and disruptions in the movement of food across borders.
• Factors related to climate change are going to be an additional source of supply shocks in the years ahead.
• Therefore, the global community must plan to have a global buffer stock of food in order to ensure reasonable stability in food prices and supply.

Back2Basics: Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)

• CGIAR (formerly the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) is a global partnership that unites international organizations engaged in research about food security.
• CGIAR research aims to reduce rural poverty, increase food security, improve human health and nutrition, and sustainable management of natural resources.

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