Why in the news?

On July 25, Myanmar’s junta and an ethnic group both claimed control of Lashio’s military command after clashes began on July 3.

Background

The 2021 Military coup in Myanmar triggered sustained violent resistance which undermined military control.
Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) and resistance groups, including the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and the Brotherhood Alliance, have made significant territorial gains.
The military’s fragile ceasefires have collapsed, leading to a loss of control in strategic areas, including Lashio, with reinforcements now concentrated near Mandalay.

Large parts of Rakhine province have fallen under the control of the Arakan Army, an ethnic Rakhine Buddhist armed group.
The Arakan Army has seized territories on the borders with Bangladesh, including towns like Buthidaung, and is advancing towards important port cities on the Bay of Bengal coast like Kyauk Phyu, Sittwe, and Ngapali.
Control over these coastal areas gives the Arakan Army leverage to impact the implementation of infrastructure projects like China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Kyauk Phyu and India’s Kaladan project in Sittwe.

Major EAOs have refrained from declaring independence or creating new sovereign states, likely to avoid rallying renewed support for the military.
EAOs aim to establish a genuine federal democratic structure with maximum autonomy for provinces, with some advocating for a confederation.
Carving out new nation-states is challenging due to complex ethnic geographies and overlapping claims over homelands.

China has engaged with multiple actors, including the military and various EAOs, to protect its massive investments and economic interests in the region.
Beijing has facilitated temporary ceasefires between the military and EAOs and maintains substantive relations with armed groups like the Brotherhood Alliance and United Wa State Army.
China has reportedly supplied defence equipment to both the military and EAOs, ensuring fragmented sovereignty in Myanmar

India can share its experiences and institutional frameworks on federalism with stakeholders in Myanmar to help establish a new constitutional framework based on the principles of federalism and democracy.
Example: Despite the ongoing civil war, India has successfully constructed massive infrastructure projects in neighbouring Afghanistan, demonstrating its potential to contribute to regional peace and prosperity in Myanmar.

Facilitate Dialogue and Mediation: To address the ongoing conflict in Myanmar, it is crucial for regional powers, including India and China, to facilitate dialogue between the military junta, Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), and the National Unity Government (NUG).
Enhance Humanitarian Support and Development Initiatives: In parallel with diplomatic efforts, there should be an increase in humanitarian assistance to affected populations in conflict zones, particularly in Rakhine State and areas controlled by the Arakan Army.

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