What’s the news?

• The recent series of deadly attacks launched by Hamas on Israel has had profound implications for the dynamics of the Middle East.

Central idea

• The recent lethal attacks launched by Hamas on Israel on October 7 have had significant repercussions, particularly in the realm of Israeli-Saudi relations and the broader Middle East geopolitical landscape. These attacks have effectively overturned Israeli efforts, backed by the United States, to foster normalization of relations with Arab states while neglecting Palestinian concerns.

Israeli Diplomacy

• Normalization Agreements: Israel, under the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, pursued a strategy of normalizing relations with Arab countries. This strategy aimed to establish diplomatic ties with Arab nations that had historically been hostile or distant from Israel. Notable agreements included those with Egypt and Jordan, which were signed in the late 20th century.
• The Abrahamic Accords: A significant milestone in Israeli diplomacy was the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020. These agreements, brokered by the United States, led to the normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan, and later Morocco. These agreements marked a shift in regional dynamics and signified growing acceptance of Israel in the Arab world.
• Strategic Goals: Israel’s diplomatic efforts aimed to enhance its security, strengthen its regional influence, and broaden economic and technological cooperation with Arab states. These agreements also served to isolate Iran, which was seen as a common regional rival.

The role of the United States

• Mediator and Facilitator: The United States has historically played a central role as a mediator in Israeli-Arab conflicts. It has facilitated peace talks, negotiations, and agreements between Israel and its Arab neighbors. The U.S. has acted as a neutral party, using its diplomatic clout to bring parties to the negotiating table.
• Broker of the Abraham Accords: In the case of the Abraham Accords, the United States, led by the Trump administration, took a proactive role in brokering these agreements. The U.S. actively encouraged Arab nations to establish diplomatic ties with Israel and provided political support and incentives to make these deals happen.
• Strategic Interests: The United States had strategic interests in promoting Israeli-Arab normalization. These interests included strengthening its regional alliances, countering Iranian influence, and promoting stability in the Middle East.
• Security Assistance: The U.S. has provided substantial military aid and security assistance to Israel, reinforcing its position in the region and ensuring its qualitative military edge. This support has been a cornerstone of the U.S.-Israel relationship.

The Gaza War and Its Ramifications

• Reemphasis on the Palestinian Issue: The Gaza War has once again thrust the Palestinian issue to the forefront of regional politics. It has drawn attention to the longstanding Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the unresolved grievances of the Palestinian people.
• Regional Instability: The conflict in Gaza has contributed to regional instability and heightened tensions. It has the potential to spill over into neighboring countries and exacerbate existing regional conflicts.
• Impact on Israeli-Saudi Normalization Efforts: The Gaza War has had significant implications for Israel’s efforts to normalize relations with Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia. It has disrupted the momentum of normalization, as Saudi Arabia, like other Arab nations, has faced domestic pressure to condemn Israeli actions in Gaza.
• Saudi Arabia’s Shift: Saudi Arabia’s response to the Gaza War represents a notable shift in its stance. While previously open to normalizing relations with Israel, the kingdom has now emphasized the importance of addressing Palestinian interests and rights. This change in stance may have lasting implications for Saudi foreign policy and its relations with both Israel and the United States.
• Iran’s Role: Some observers have speculated about Iran’s role in instigating Hamas attacks to undermine Saudi-Israeli normalization efforts. However, it is essential to note that Saudi-Iran relations had already undergone a degree of normalization before the Gaza War, reducing the likelihood of Iranian involvement as a primary motivator.
• Humanitarian Crisis: The conflict has led to a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with casualties, displacement, and infrastructure damage. The international community has been called upon to address the immediate humanitarian needs of the Palestinian population.
• Impact on Regional Alliances: The Gaza War has influenced the alignment of regional alliances, with countries taking positions based on their historical relationships and geopolitical interests. This could potentially reshape alliances and cooperation in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia’s Evolving Foreign Policy

• Pursuit of Strategic Autonomy: Over the past few years, Saudi Arabia has demonstrated a growing willingness to pursue an independent foreign policy. The kingdom has sought to assert its strategic autonomy and reduce its reliance on traditional allies, including the United States.
• Refusal to Align with Anti-China or Anti-Iran Coalitions: Saudi Arabia has rejected U.S. efforts to build global anti-China coalitions and regional anti-Iran alliances. Despite U.S. pressure, the kingdom has maintained its own strategic interests and relationships.
• Stronger Ties with China: Saudi Arabia has deepened its relations with China, particularly in the areas of trade, investment, and energy cooperation. The kingdom recognizes China’s increasing global influence and sees it as an important economic partner.
• Multifaceted Engagement Across Asia: Saudi Arabia has actively pursued multifaceted relationships across Asia, including with countries like India and Pakistan. These engagements encompass economic, diplomatic, and security cooperation, reflecting the kingdom’s aim to expand its influence in the Asian region.

Way forward: Concrete Actions for Palestinian Interests

• Commitment to a Two-State Solution: Both Israel and the Palestinian leadership should unequivocally reaffirm their commitment to a two-state solution, recognizing the need for an independent and viable Palestinian state alongside Israel.
• Freeze Settlement Expansion: Israel should halt all settlement construction activities in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Settlement expansion remains a significant obstacle to peace and threatens the territorial integrity of a future Palestinian state.
• Cessation of Violence: All parties involved must commit to ending violence and terrorism. This includes a complete halt to rocket attacks from Gaza into Israel and measures to prevent violence on both sides. A comprehensive ceasefire agreement should be sought.
• Support for Palestinian Elections: The international community should support transparent and inclusive Palestinian elections to strengthen the legitimacy of the Palestinian leadership. These elections should adhere to international standards.
• Address Core Issues: Negotiations should address core issues such as the status of Jerusalem, the right of return for Palestinian refugees, and the delineation of borders for a future Palestinian state. These issues must be resolved through peaceful negotiations based on international principles.
• International Mediation and Oversight: International actors, including the Quartet, should actively mediate and oversee the peace process to ensure accountability, adherence to agreements, and a fair and balanced negotiation environment.

Conclusion

• The Gaza conflict has had a profound impact on the geopolitics of the region, particularly by reemphasizing the importance of addressing Palestinian concerns. While Israel’s efforts to normalize relations with Arab states face challenges, Saudi Arabia’s renewed focus on the Palestinian cause marks a significant shift in its foreign policy approach, underscoring the evolving dynamics in the Middle East.

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