Why in the News?

Indian researchers have developed a predictive model based on the Gompertz Model to estimate a newborn’s birth weight using routine pregnancy scans.

What is the Gompertz Model?

• It is a mathematical model developed by English mathematician Benjamin Gompertz in the early 19th century.

• • It was originally designed to model population growth in a constrained environment, such as a specific geographic region.
  • The model uses an S-shaped (sigmoid) curve to represent growth patterns that start slowly, accelerate, and then slow again as they approach a plateau.

• Applications:

• • Biology: The Gompertz Model is used to study tumor growth and cell population dynamics, reflecting constrained growth in biological systems.
  • Epidemiology: Applied in predicting the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19, capturing how transmission rates slow with interventions.
  • Ecology: Useful for modelling species population growth in habitats with limited resources, aiding conservation and ecosystem management.
  • Healthcare: Recently adapted to predict foetal birth weight, helping identify potential risks associated with low or high birth weight.
  • Aging Research: Employed to analyze mortality rates and lifespan patterns, contributing to studies on aging and longevity.

Recent Research and Significance

• Recent research has applied the Gompertz Model in predicting foetal birth weight using routine scans, as shown by researchers from IISER Pune and IMSc Chennai, offering a non-invasive alternative for maternal health.
• The model is used in tumor growth studies, allowing researchers to understand and predict cancer progression.
• Its predictive accuracy under constrained conditions makes it useful for biological systems, including population growth and cell dynamics.
• In healthcare, it supports early detection and intervention for conditions impacted by growth patterns, such as low or high birth weight risks.

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