Why in the News?

On September 26, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) initiated a significant offensive against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and Bahri. As a result, the conflict, which had been relatively calm for several months, has reignited with increased intensity.

What is the extent of the war? 

• Duration and Scope: The civil war has lasted for over 18 months, initially erupting from a power struggle between the two military factions—the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). What began in Khartoum has spread to various regions, including Omdurman, Bahri, Port Sudan, El Fasher, and areas in Darfur and Kordofan.
• Casualties and Displacement: The UN reports over 20,000 fatalities since the conflict began. Additionally, the International Organization for Migration estimates 10.89 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) as of October 1.
• Worsening Humanitarian Crisis: Access to aid and healthcare has become severely restricted, particularly in Darfur. 
  • The UN has declared famine in specific camps like Zamzam, affecting nearly 500,000 IDPs. Currently, 25.6 million people—more than half of Sudan’s population—face critical food insecurity.

How have ethnic tensions and rivalries played a part in the war? 

• Ethnic Conflict: The war has evolved beyond a military rivalry, intensifying along ethnic lines. The RSF, composed of predominantly Arab militias, has been involved in targeting non-Arab communities, such as the Masalit, particularly in the Darfur region.
• Militia Involvement: Various regional ethnic militias have taken sides in the conflict, complicating the dynamics further. The SAF has allied with the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement, while the RSF has garnered support from Arab militias.
• Historical reason: Ethnic tensions are rooted in historical grievances, exacerbating violence and leading to retaliatory attacks between communities, which have fueled the conflict.

What are the implications for the region?

• Mass Displacement: Over two million refugees have fled to neighboring countries, including Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. This has strained resources in host countries and raised concerns about a potential migrant crisis in Europe.
• Ethnic Clashes in Neighboring Regions: The instability in Sudan has triggered ethnic violence along the borders with South Sudan and Ethiopia, particularly in contested areas like Abyei and El Fashaga.
• Economic Impact: The ongoing conflict jeopardizes essential infrastructures, such as oil pipelines from South Sudan to the Red Sea, threatening regional economic stability.
• Cross-Border Tensions: A lack of effective governance in Sudan has led to increased ethnic tensions and clashes in border regions, which could have wider implications for regional security and stability.

Way forward: 

• Facilitate Peace Talks: India can leverage its diplomatic relations with the conflicting factions (SAF and RSF) to encourage dialogue and support peace initiatives through multilateral platforms like the African Union and the UN.
• Strengthen Regional Alliances: India can collaborate with neighbouring countries (Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia) to manage the refugee crisis and promote stability through joint security initiatives.

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