Context

Russia’s war on Ukraine has decisively shaped international opinion. Indian foreign policy is also going to be affected in a profound manner.

India’s foreign policy conundrum

• Russia’s attack on Ukraine has put New Delhi in a foreign policy conundrum that will not disappear soon because Russia’s action has changed the global order.
• India has not directly criticised Moscow’s action.
• Memories of the historic Indo-Soviet partnership still seem to tip the scales when it comes to India’s vote at the UNSC.
• Western countries have criticised India’s repeated abstentions at the UNSC on the issue of the Russian invasion.
• The Western world has imposed unprecedented sanctions against Russia and banned energy imports.
• New Delhi is concerned about the impact of these sanctions on global finance, energy supplies, and transportation, amid growing signs that they will constrain India’s ability to import Russian oil.

India’s challenges

• Russia’s increasing dependence on China: What must worry India is the fact that Russia will now become increasingly dependent on Chinese support to defend its policies.
• The collapsing ruble, the punishing sanctions, and the dire state of the Russian economy will push Russia further into China’s military and economic orbit.
• China’s challenge in Indo-Pacific: India’s real strategic challenge is surfacing in the Indo-Pacific with the rise of China, as Beijing has consistently sought to expand its zone of military, economic and political influence through the Belt and Road Initiative.
• Though India would like the U.S. to continue to focus on China, it is not possible for Washington to ignore Russia’s aggression along NATO’s periphery.

How India’s ties with Russia changed over time

• Since the end of the Cold War, Indians have been debating the contours of strategic autonomy.
• For one section the doctrine of ‘multi-alignment’ is the 21st century avatar of strategic autonomy as India has been expanding its engagement with all the major powers.
• Following the disintegration of the USSR, India joined Russia and China against the unipolarity of the U.S.
•  For some time, this common concern about unipolarity put the three countries on the same path towards mutual cooperation and understanding.
• Later, Brazil and South Africa were also brought into this coalition.
• However, it soon became clear that India and China did not see eye to eye.
• Moreover, India was determined to maintain its partnership with Russia, an important arms supplier.
• Its ties with the U.S. have also improved significantly since the end of the Cold War.
• But continuing dependence on Russian weaponry has become India’s strategic headache.

Way forward for India

•  Under Mr. Putin, Russia is in a state of transition, swinging wildly from one crisis to another.
• Therefore, it is too risky for India to pursue vague aims vis-à-vis Russia in these uncertain times.
• A NATO-Russia Council was formed specifically to alleviate Russia’s concerns, and that Russia was recognised as one of the world’s leading industrial powers through a formal admission into the elite G-7.
• Though Moscow has drifted much closer to Beijing, and is sharply critical of India’s engagement with the U.S. and the Quad, India finds it difficult to extend support to Ukraine.
• It goes without saying that the U.S. is the country most likely to bolster India’s future as a great power.

Conclusion

It is not going to be easy for New Delhi to maintain its balancing act in the future as Washington hardens its position further. It is inevitable that during this time of diplomatic and strategic uncertainty, New Delhi needs to be ready to radically redefine its relationship with Moscow.

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