The focus of this article is on the U.S. policy in the Indo-Pacific and its relations with its allies there in countering China.

Instances of China’s aggression

• Galwan Valley is not an exception in Beijing’s recent behaviour in Asia.
• China has also engaged in a tense geopolitical confrontation with its other neighbours.
• Stand-offs with Vietnam and Malaysia in the South China Sea and threatening Australia with boycotts are a few examples.

Response to China

• Beijing’s aggressiveness is fueling debates about the underlying costs of reliance on China.
• China’s aggression is also increasing support for closer coordination between other Indo-Pacific partners.
• Indian, Japan, Malaysia, and Australia have all taken concrete steps to reduce their economic exposure to Beijing.
•  India and Australia recently inked a new military logistics agreement in the “virtual summit”.
• A similar agreement between Delhi and Tokyo may follow.
• The Quadrilateral Dialogue between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States is growing stronger and even expanding.
• And recently Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) issued one of their strongest statements to date on the South China Sea.
• The ASEAN statement insisted that maritime disputes must be resolved in accordance with the UN Law of the Sea treaty.

Asian multilateralism: Born out of crises

• Recently the “Milk Tea Alliance”, reaction of people, born to forge solidarity between Taiwanese, Hong Kongers, and Southeast Asians online to deal with Chinese cyberbullying.
• The Chiang Mai Initiative — a financial swap mechanism between China, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia — emerged in the aftermath of the late 1990s financial crisis.
• ASEAN, created in 1967, did not convene its first heads of state meeting until fall of Saigon in 1976 in the Vietnam War.

Role of the U.S.

• The COVID-19 crisis is remaking the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific.
• The ongoing crisis has made countries aware of seriousness of Chinese dominance.
• This situation has given the U.S. opportunity it has long sought: 1) More credible multilateral coordination among allies, 2) Pushback against online disinformation. 3) The desire to better integrate like-minded economies and supply chains.
• But the crisis is also raising renewed questions about the American leadership.
• The question now facing the U.S. is whether or not it can harness this new regional momentum.

Alienating allies

• U.S. continues to make unforced errors that create distance with U.S. allies and partners.
• For example, its focus on cutting support for the WHO and asserting that COVID-19 originated in a Wuhan lab alienated Canberra.
• Similarly, the administration’s suspension of various worker visas will almost certainly have serious repercussions in India.

What should be the U.S. approach to Asia?

• The U.S. needs to make two major shifts.
• First, U.S. policy needs to start supporting, rather than attempting to commandeer, regional efforts to build a less China-centric future for the Indo-Pacific.
• While Chinese aggression provides powerful motivation for coordination, U.S. partners are seeking an agenda that is framed in broader terms than simply rallying to counter Beijing.
• If the U.S. wants to reduce reliance on Beijing and “re-couple” investments and supply chains among allied nations, it is going to have to make compromises.
• U.S. should work with Indo-Pacific partners on the issues that they prioritise and provided them with space for independent action.
• Second, Washington should avoid repeating Beijing’s mistakes of bullying.
• U.S. should offer a clear alternative in word and deed to China’s “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy.
• Moves such as demanding that a G-7 communiqué refer to COVID-19 as the “Wuhan virus” and blocking mask shipments to close allies are the kind of counterproductive bullying.

Options for Asian countries

• Beijing’s recent aggression is not an aberration but part of a growing pattern.
• As Beijing’s confidence in its growing material and military power solidifies, its neighbours will need to think carefully about the long-term decisions necessary to preserve an open regional order.
• Facing the unprecedented health and economic crises spawned by COVID-19, the U.S. and Asian partners will need to coordinate more closely.
• Asian countries should strengthen their own regional networks.
• This Asian network will challenge the views of those in both Washington and Beijing who would see the region only as a sparring ground.

Conclusion

For American and Asian leaders, the choice is stark: encourage and foster this trend, recognising that stronger regional coordination will require more compromises as well as tougher choices, or resist it and risk being left behind.

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