Why in the News?

• Rogue waves, unusually large waves compared to those before and after them, pose significant threats to ships, coastal and offshore infrastructure, and human lives.
  • Until now, there has been no method to forecast rogue waves.

What Are Rogue Waves?

• Rogue waves are unusually large and unpredictable waves that are much larger than the surrounding waves.
• They are often defined as waves that are at least twice the height of the surrounding waves.
• Formation:
• • Rogue waves can form when swells from distant weather systems converge to create a single, amplified wave.
  • They may also form when ocean currents compress swells, creating strong, high waves.
• Features:

• • Traditionally, rogue waves have been difficult to predict due to their sudden appearance and rare occurrence.
  • The lack of real-time forecasting methods has made it challenging to mitigate their impact effectively.

Characteristics:

• Unlike typical waves, rogue waves can appear suddenly and without warning.
• They defy the average sea state, making them exceptionally dangerous.

Threats Posed by Rogue Waves:

(1) Shipping

• For Ships and Vessels: Rogue waves pose a significant threat to ships and other vessels at sea. Their unexpected and massive size can lead to capsizing or severe damage.
• For Offshore Infrastructure: Oil rigs, wind turbines, and other offshore structures can be heavily damaged or destroyed by rogue waves.

(2) Coastal Threats

• Coastal Erosion: The sheer force of rogue waves can lead to accelerated coastal erosion, affecting beaches and shorelines.
• Flooding: Rogue waves can cause sudden and severe coastal flooding, posing risks to coastal communities and ecosystems.

(3) Human Safety

• Loss of Life: Rogue waves have been responsible for numerous fatalities. Between 2011 and 2018, rogue waves killed at least 386 people.
• Property Damage: The impact of rogue waves on ships, coastal areas, and offshore structures can result in significant financial losses.

Advancements in Forecasting

• University of Maryland mathematicians Thomas Breunung and Balakumar Balachandran have developed an artificial intelligence program capable of forecasting rogue waves.
• The AI program was trained using billions of data points collected by a network of 172 ocean buoys.
• The researchers analyzed 20-minute long samples recorded by ocean buoys.

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