Why in the News?

The Chief Ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have recently voiced concerns over the low fertility rates in their states.

What is the current demographic situation, especially in the southern States?

• Falling Fertility Rates: Southern states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Kerala have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1.
  • For instance, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal recorded fertility rates of 1.4 (2019-21), and Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Kerala at 1.5.
• Ageing Population: These states face an advanced demographic transition with an increasingly ageing population. The share of elderly in Kerala is expected to rise to 22.8% by 2036, in Tamil Nadu to 20.8%, and in Andhra Pradesh to 19%.
• End of Demographic Dividend: With a rising old age dependency ratio — Kerala (26.1), Tamil Nadu (20.5), and Andhra Pradesh (18.5) in 2021 — the demographic window for leveraging a young workforce is closing or has already closed in these states.

What is the likely economic impact?

• Rising Healthcare Costs: The elderly demographic is likely to increase healthcare costs. Southern states, comprising one-fifth of India’s population, accounted for 32% of out-of-pocket cardiovascular healthcare expenditure in 2017-18.
• Reduced Economic Growth Potential: A declining working-age population means a lower potential to reap economic benefits from a young labor force. This demographic shift may impact productivity and economic growth.
• Impact on Women’s Labor Force Participation: Pro-natalist policies to increase fertility may lead to a reduction in women’s participation in the labor force, hindering economic growth further.

What are the political implications?

• Federal Representation Changes: With the 2026 delimitation, seats in Parliament are expected to be adjusted based on population. Southern states could lose representation due to slower population growth, with Tamil Nadu potentially losing nine seats, Kerala six, and Andhra Pradesh five, while northern states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Rajasthan may gain seats.
• Resource Allocation: Slower-growing southern states contribute more tax revenue yet may receive a smaller share of resources from the central pool, as allocation formulas often consider population.

What are the solutions being considered? (Way forward)

• Pro-natalist Incentives: Some southern leaders advocate incentivizing families to have more children. However, international experiences show limited success with pro-natalist incentives.
• Gender Equity and Family Policies: Policies such as paid maternity/paternity leave, accessible childcare, and employment protections can support sustainable fertility rates without economically disadvantaging women.
• Increasing Working Age and Migrant Inclusion: Extending working lifespans and better integrating economic migrants in social security and political representation can help mitigate the impact of an ageing population.
• Balancing Migration Needs: Southern states, which attract many economic migrants, face challenges as these migrants are still counted in their home states, impacting political representation and resource distribution in the host states.

Mains PYQ:

Q Critically examine whether growing population is the cause of poverty OR poverty is the mains cause of population increase in India. (UPSC IAS/2015)

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