Central Idea

At the ongoing COP28 climate summit, the term “unabated” fossil fuels has become a focal point in discussions about climate change mitigation.
The draft climate agreement mentions phasing down unabated coal, and US climate envoy John Kerry emphasized the need to phase out all unabated fossil fuels.

Understanding ‘Unabated’ Fossil Fuels

Definition: “Unabated” fossil fuels refer to the use of coal, oil, and natural gas without reducing the associated CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions.
Contrast with ‘Abated’: “Abated” fossil fuels involve efforts to decrease emissions to an acceptable level, though the specifics of this level are not clearly defined.
IPCC’s Definition: The UN IPCC defines unabated fossil fuels as those without substantial reduction interventions for greenhouse gas emissions, suggesting capturing significant percentages of CO2 and methane.

CCS Technologies: These technologies capture emissions from power stations or industrial facilities and store them underground.
Polarized Views: Oil and gas producers view CCS as essential for emission reduction, while climate activists and experts argue its effectiveness is limited.
EU and Nations’ Stance: The EU and several nations stated that CCS should not replace significant fossil fuel cuts and must not be overused.

IEA Report: The International Energy Agency reports that modern CCS technologies can capture about 90% of CO2.
IEEFA Study: A study by the IEEFA found that many flagship CCS projects underperformed or failed.
Climate Analytics Analysis: This analysis indicated that reliance on CCS could lead to substantial greenhouse gas emissions, potentially doubling CO2 emissions in 2023 if capture rates are lower than expected.

High Costs: CCS technologies are expensive, with alternatives like wind, solar, and batteries being more cost-effective than retrofitting coal plants with CCS.
Sustainability Concerns: Scenarios achieving the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit show a near-complete phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050, with minimal use of fossil CCS.

Potential COP28 Declaration: The summit’s final declaration might include phasing out or down of unabated fossil fuels, raising concerns about continued fossil fuel use with CCS.
Risks of ‘Abated’ Fossil Fuels: Experts like Claire Fyson from Climate Analytics warn that promoting ‘abated’ fossil fuels could misdirect climate finance and greenwash emissions from fossil fuel use.

Balancing Act: The COP28 discussions highlight the complexities of balancing fossil fuel use, technological solutions like CCS, and achieving climate targets.
Need for Caution: The debate underscores the need for cautious approaches to fossil fuel use and CCS, ensuring they align with broader climate goals and do not undermine efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.