Thousands of Russian troops have been deployed to stations along Ukraine’s border, sparking fears among Western leaders and Ukraine itself that Moscow is planning an invasion

Roots of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ans. USSR disintegration

• Ukraine was a part of the Russian empire for centuries before becoming a Soviet republic.
• It won independence as the USSR broke up in 1991.
• Since then, it has moved to shed its Russian imperial legacy and is in increasingly close ties with the West.
• After the Crimean annexation, both nations have signed ceasefire agreements at Minsk in 2014 and 2015.

The beginning

Ans. Separatist insurgency in Ukraine’s East (by Russian speaking population)

• In 2014, then Russian-leaning Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych rejected an association agreement with the European Union in favor of closer ties with Moscow.
• This sparked mass protests that led to his ouster in 2014.
• Russia responded by annexing Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and throwing its weight behind a separatist insurgency that broke out in Ukraine’s east.

Beginning of armed conflict

• More than 14,000 people have died in the fighting that devastated Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland known as Donbas.
• Ukraine and the West accused Russia of sending its troops and weapons to back the rebels.
• Moscow denied that, charging that Russians who joined the separatists were volunteers.
• Earlier this year, a spike in cease-fire violations in the east and a Russian troop concentration near Ukraine fueled war fears.

Why is Russia resented over Ukraine?

• Cultural ties defying the conflict: The Russian president has repeatedly described Russians and Ukrainians as “one people” and claims that Ukraine has unfairly received historic Russian lands during Soviet times.
• Influence of the ‘West’: The Kremlin has accused Ukraine of failing to honor the 2015 peace deal and criticized the West for failing to encourage Ukrainian compliance.
• Asylum to rebels: The agreement was a diplomatic coup for Moscow, requiring Ukraine to grant broad autonomy to the rebel regions and offer a sweeping amnesty to the rebels.
• Affinity with the US and NATO: Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO represent a red line for Moscow.

American concern over Russian build-up

• Buffer state with Russia: Ukraine is a crucial buffer between Russia and the West.
• Heavy troop deployment: Russia hasn’t provided any details about its troop numbers and locations, saying that their deployment on its own territory shouldn’t concern anyone.
• Invasion: Russia is planning to deploy an estimated 175,000 troops and almost half of them are already stationed along various points near Ukraine’s border in preparation for a possible invasion.
• Protection of its ally: Ukraine has been a close ally of the US. Hence, NATO has placed its military infrastructure closer to Russia.

Recent developments

• As it moves a large number of troops towards the border, Russia seeks assurances from the US that Ukraine will not be inducted into NATO.
• However, US President Joe Biden has made it clear that he is not prepared to give any such assurance.
• This has left the countries in a stand-off, with tens of thousands of Russian troops ready to invade Ukraine at short notice, and the West not budging on Russia’s demands.
• Experts believe that Russia is keeping the tensions high at the Ukraine border in order to get sanctions relief and other concessions from the West.

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