Why in the News?

The Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2021 shows that India’s fertility rate has dropped significantly, from 6.18 children per woman in the 1950s to 1.9 children per woman in 2021.

What has a GBD Report shown about the total fertility rate in India? 

• Declining Fertility Rates: India’s TFR has dramatically decreased from 6.18 in the 1950s to 1.9 in 2021, which is below the replacement level of 2.1 necessary for population stability.
• Future Projections: The report projects that India’s TFR could further decline to 1.04 by 2100, indicating a potential average of less than one child per woman.
• Socio-Economic Concerns: This steep decline in fertility has raised alarms regarding political and socio-economic impacts, particularly in southern states, where there are fears of losing parliamentary representation due to demographic shifts post-delimitation in 2026.

Why are fertility levels declining in India?

• Early Adoption of Family Planning Policies: Southern states like Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh rigorously implemented family planning policies introduced in the 1950s, leading to a significant decline in fertility rates. For example, Andhra Pradesh currently has a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.5, comparable to Nordic countries like Sweden.
• Higher Female Literacy and Workforce Participation: Increased educational attainment among women has empowered them to delay marriage and childbirth. This is evident in Kerala, where high literacy rates have contributed to the state achieving replacement-level fertility as early as 1988.
• Changing Societal Norms: Cultural shifts have led to late marriages and smaller families. For instance, women in southern states increasingly prioritize careers and financial independence over traditional roles, contributing to lower fertility rates.
• Urbanization and Economic Pressures: Urban lifestyles and rising costs of living discourage larger families. States like Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have seen fertility rates drop to 1.4 and 1.6 respectively due to urbanization and modern aspirations.

Why are the southern States worried?

• Ageing Population: Southern states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh have fertility rates that have fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. This decline leads to an increasing proportion of elderly individuals in the population, which is projected to rise significantly.
  • For instance, Kerala’s population aged 60 and above is expected to increase from 13% in 2011 to 23% by 2036. This demographic shift results in a smaller working-age population, which can strain economic productivity and increase demands for pensions and healthcare services.
• Political Representation: The upcoming delimitation of parliamentary constituencies, based on population figures from the 2031 Census, raises fears that southern states may lose parliamentary seats due to their slower population growth.
  • This potential reduction in representation could diminish their political influence at the national level, especially compared to more populous northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
• Economic Strain: With a declining workforce contributing less to the economy through taxes and social security, southern states face challenges similar to those observed in countries with ageing populations, such as Japan and China.
• Migration Issues: As birth rates decline, southern states may increasingly rely on internal migration from northern states to fill labour shortages. However, this reliance could create further socio-economic disparities between regions.

Way forward: 

• Equitable Resource Distribution: Implement policies ensuring equitable representation and resource allocation in parliamentary seats post-delimitation to address regional disparities without penalizing states with successful population control measures.
• Support for Ageing Populations: Develop robust social security systems, healthcare infrastructure, and incentives for elder care while promoting skill development and migration-friendly policies to mitigate workforce shortages in southern states.

Mains PYQ:

Q Discuss the main objectives of Population Education and point out the measures to achieve them in India in detail. (UPSC IAS/2021)

Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor for UPSC 2024

Attend Now