Central Idea

The emergence of El Nino as a significant climatic phenomenon in India carries dual implications – economic and political – as the country gears up for national elections in April-May 2024.
With its known ability to suppress rainfall and disrupt agricultural cycles, El Nino’s effects are already being felt.

Understanding El Nino and La Nina

El Nino and La Nina are two opposite phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
ENSO is a naturally occurring phenomenon that involves the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific.

Here is a detailed comparison of El Nino and La Nina

	El Nino	La Nina
Definition	Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures	Cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures
Frequency	Every two to seven years	Every two to seven years
Duration	Several months to a year or more	Several months to a year or more
Impact on winds	Weakens trade winds, leading to changes in patterns	Strengthens trade winds, leading to changes in patterns
Impact on rains	Reduces rainfall and can cause droughts	Increases rainfall and can cause flooding
Impact on temp.	Warmer-than-average temperatures	Colder-than-average temperatures
Global effects	Droughts in Asia and Africa, floods in Americas	Floods in Asia and Africa, droughts in South America

El Nino	La Nina
Associated with weak monsoons and drought-like conditions in India	Associated with above-normal rainfall and floods in India
Sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean rises above normal levels	Sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean drops below normal levels
Changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns	Changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns
Shift in the location of the jet stream, affecting the strength and direction of the monsoon winds	Increase in the strength of the monsoon winds, bringing more moisture and rainfall to India
Results in reduced rainfall, dry spells, and heatwaves, leading to crop failures and water scarcity	Excessive rainfall can also lead to floods and landslides, causing damage to crops and infrastructure

Rainfall Deficit: August’s nationwide rainfall stands at 30.7% below normal, erasing the initial 4.2% surplus from the southwest monsoon.
Strengthening El Nino: July saw the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) surpass the El Nino threshold, hitting 1 degree Celsius, suggesting an intensification of El Nino.
Projected Persistence: Forecasts predict El Nino’s continuation and possible strengthening during the 2023-24 winter season, potentially impacting the northeast monsoon and winter seasons.

Crucial Monsoon: Beyond crop yield, the southwest monsoon replenishes reservoirs and recharges groundwater, essential for agricultural success.
Rabi Season Dependence: The success of rabi season crops like wheat, mustard, and chickpea hinges on water reserves, primarily sourced from aquifers and reservoirs.
Supply-Demand Nexus: With rice and wheat stocks at a six-year low and food inflation at 11.5%, El Nino-induced shortfalls may exacerbate food inflation concerns.

Food Inflation: Examining consumer food price inflation leading up to previous Lok Sabha elections reveals its considerable impact on political outcomes.
Electoral Influence: The BJP’s 2019 electoral victory and the UPA’s 2014 defeat were partially attributed to the level of food inflation during those periods.
Government Actions: The Modi administration has already taken steps to ensure food availability, curb hoarding, and address potential food inflation concerns.

El Nino’s emergence as a formidable environmental and political factor underscores the intricate interplay between climate patterns, agriculture, and political dynamics.
India’s ability to manage the far-reaching consequences of El Nino on food production and inflation will determine its capacity to address immediate challenges while considering the longer-term goals.