Central idea 

The recent surge in terrorist activity in the Poonch-Rajouri sector challenges the Indian Army’s historical success in counter-terrorism operations. This shift is attributed to the path of least resistance as Kashmir becomes less conducive, prompting a need for a strategic reassessment and adaptation of deployment and operational strategies to address emerging challenges. Transparent investigations into civilian deaths and a balanced approach in public statements are crucial to maintaining public trust and stability in the region.

Key Highlights:

• Recent encounters in the Poonch-Rajouri sector challenge the Indian Army’s historical success in counter-terrorism operations.
• Shift of terrorist activity to Poonch-Rajouri is due to the path of least resistance, with Kashmir facing strong counter-terrorism measures.
• Dilution of local support, abrogation of Article 370, and focus on Pir Panjal (South) indicate a strategic shift in the region’s dynamics.
• Questions arise about the redeployment of formations and potential dilution of optimum deployment in the sector.

Key Challenges:

• Losses for the Indian Army in recent encounters raise concerns about the effectiveness of current strategies and the need for potential adjustments.
• Shift in terrorist activity to Poonch-Rajouri poses a challenge to the Army’s counter-terrorism efforts.
• Allegations surrounding the deaths of three local civilians in suspicious circumstances require thorough investigations and pose a challenge to maintaining public trust.

Key Terms/Phrases:

• Poonch-Rajouri sector
• Counter-terrorism operations
• Proxy hybrid war
• Counter-infiltration (CI) and counter-terrorism (CT) grid
• Article 370
• Pir Panjal (South)
• Redeployment
• Rashtriya Rifles troops

Key Quotes:

• “Terrorism is like water; it takes the path of least resistance.”
• “The abrogation of Article 370 has also made Kashmir less conducive to separatist trends.”
• “The Indian government’s demonstrated capability for retaliation when an undetermined threshold is crossed will keep Pakistan on tenterhooks.”

Key Statements:

• Recent encounters challenge the Indian Army’s historical success in counter-terrorism operations.
• The strategic shift of terrorist activity to the Poonch-Rajouri sector necessitates a reassessment of deployment and operational strategies.

Key Examples/References:

• Shift in terrorist tactics and focus from Kashmir to the Poonch-Rajouri sector.
• Allegations surrounding the deaths of three local civilians.

Key Facts/Data:

• Recent encounters in the Poonch-Rajouri sector resulted in more losses for the Army than terrorists.
• Redeployment of troops from the Jammu sector since May 2020.

Critical Analysis:

• Losses in recent encounters raise questions about the effectiveness of the Army’s current strategies.
• Shift in terrorist activity indicates the need for adaptability in response strategies.
• Allegations surrounding civilian deaths require transparent investigations to maintain public trust.

Way Forward:

• Conduct a thorough review of identified weaknesses in convoy security, vehicle hardening, and reinforcement movements.
• Adapt drills, Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), and minor tactics to address current challenges.
• Ensure transparent investigations into civilian deaths, with suitable disciplinary action if mistakes are identified.
• Conduct brigade-sized operations in Pir Panjal with drone support, reinforced by strong public outreach to address local sentiments.
• Maintain a balanced approach in public statements to prevent speculation and unrest, and continue precautionary measures in the Kashmir Valley.