Mentor’s Comment:  UPSC Mains have always focused on Regional Geopolitics (2019), Bilateral Ties (2022) and Neighbourhood  Policy (2013).

Political shifts in the Asian continent can be characterized by several distinct phases, reflecting the diverse historical, social, and economic contexts of various countries. Recent years have seen significant protests and movements demanding political change (e.g., Hong Kong protests, Myanmar coup), reflecting a desire for democratic governance and human rights.

Today’s editorial focuses on the recent elections in Sri Lanka that illustrate a significant departure from traditional political dynamics, characterized by the decline of elite control and the rise of reformist movements.

This content can be used for presenting ‘Bilateral ties’ between India-Srilanka and ‘Asian Geopolitics’.

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Let’s learn!

Why in the News?

The Sri Lankan Presidential election held in September 2024, marked the historic shift in Asian democracy.

What led to the significant political shift in Sri Lanka?

• Economic Crisis: The country faced its worst economic crisis, leading to high inflation, shortages of essentials, and widespread public discontent.
• Public Protests: The ‘Aragalaya’ Mass Movement protests against the government highlighted demands for accountability and change, reflecting the anger over economic mismanagement.
• Rejection of Established Parties: Voters grew frustrated with traditional political elites, particularly the Rajapaksa family, and sought alternatives.
• Rise of New Political Forces: National People’s Power (NPP) emerged as a popular choice by advocating for reform and anti-corruption measures, appealing to those wanting a break from the past. Dissanayake’s left-wing platform attracted voters looking for state intervention and social welfare solutions.

How does this election reflect a departure from traditional political dynamics?

• Rejection of Established Parties: The election resulted in a substantial loss for established parties, particularly the Rajapaksa-led SLPP and the SJB, signaling a clear rejection of the political elite that has dominated Sri Lankan politics for decades.
• Shift in Voter Sentiment: Voters expressed a strong desire for change, driven by the economic crisis and widespread protests. This shift indicates a demand for leaders who prioritize the needs of ordinary citizens over elite interests.
• Multi-Ethnic Appeal: The NPP made significant inroads in Tamil-majority areas, such as Jaffna, traditionally dominated by Tamil nationalist parties. This marks a notable shift towards a more inclusive political landscape.
• Increased diversity in Representation: The new parliament features a record number of first-time MPs and women, reflecting a broader representation of society and moving away from the previously homogenous political class.
• Ideological Shift and Leftist Policies: The NPP’s Marxist orientation represents a departure from previous neoliberal policies, appealing to voters seeking state intervention to address economic challenges.

How India will be impacted due to the political shift in Sri Lanka?

• Enhanced Bilateral Relations: The new government under Anura Kumara Dissanayake is likely to seek closer relations with India, promoting cooperation in trade and cultural exchanges.
• Strategic Considerations: Sri Lanka may aim for a balanced relationship with both India and China, potentially renegotiating Chinese deals to align more with Indian interests this time.
• Tamil Rights and Ethnic Issues: Addressing the concerns of the Tamil population will be crucial for maintaining good relations with India, given the historical ties between Tamils in both countries.
  • Dissanayake’s ability to manage internal challenges, such as ethnic tensions and economic issues, will be essential challenging factor for regional stability and bilateral relations.
• Economic Dependency: Sri Lanka’s economic recovery will likely rely on Indian assistance, reinforcing India’s role as a key partner.

Way Forward: Sri Lanka has faced significant turmoil and deserves the opportunity to navigate its democratic recovery without external interference. Instead of focusing on exploiting Sri Lanka, major powers (USA, China, and India) should prioritize democratization within their own countries, which would ultimately benefit Sri Lanka’s progress.