India has “historical and civilisational ties” with Afghanistan, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar told Parliament in 2023. But since the Taliban seized power, the world has been walking a tightrope, deciding whether to engage with the regime or keep its distance over human rights and security concerns.

China? It wasted no time. Beijing has gone all in—securing economic deals, focusing on security partnerships, and even welcoming a Taliban-appointed ambassador. Meanwhile, India has played it cautiously, keeping diplomatic backchannels open through a foreign service officer for the past three years.

Now, things are shifting. For the first time, India’s foreign secretary and Afghanistan’s acting foreign minister sat across the table in a bilateral meeting—in Dubai, no less. And here’s the big one: reports suggest that India’s Prime Minister might allow the Taliban to officially appoint an envoy for its embassy in New Delhi.

If that happens, it will mark a seismic shift in India’s Afghanistan policy—one that could redefine regional power dynamics in a way few saw coming.

India’s Diplomatic Shift: Engaging with the Taliban

In a significant development in Jan 2025, the Taliban referred to India as a “strategic regional and economic partner” following a high-level meeting between Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Afghanistan’s acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai. This is the most notable engagement between the two sides since the Taliban regained power in 2021.

India’s recent strategy

Key Strategic Aspect	India’s Approach	Example
Maintaining Strategic Influence	India aims to retain its presence in Afghanistan to safeguard long-term geopolitical interests.	Reopened its embassy in Kabul in June 2022 to ensure diplomatic engagement.
Countering Pakistan’s Waning Influence	As Taliban-Pakistan relations deteriorate, India sees an opportunity to reduce Islamabad’s control over Kabul.	The Taliban’s refusal to act against Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has strained ties with Pakistan, allowing India to step in.
Competing with China’s Expanding Role	With China integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), India is re-evaluating its approach.	China was the first country to accept a Taliban-appointed ambassador in 2023, prompting India to rethink its strategy.
Ensuring Regional Security and Counterterrorism	A stable Afghanistan is essential to preventing it from becoming a hub for anti-India terror groups.	India seeks Taliban cooperation in curbing ISIS-K and groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).
Strengthening Economic and Humanitarian Ties	India continues to support Afghanistan through trade, development projects, and aid.	India has provided multiple consignments of wheat and medical supplies under humanitarian assistance programs.
Expanding Trade via Chabahar Port	The port provides direct access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.	The Taliban affirmed commitment to India as a key trade partner under its new economic policy.
Addressing Refugee and Healthcare Crisis	India is assisting in the rehabilitation of Afghan refugees returning from Pakistan and Iran.	India’s aid efforts focus on healthcare, with land distribution already underway for returning refugees.

India’s renewed engagement with the Taliban is a calculated move—balancing economic opportunities, regional stability, and its historical reservations about the group’s ideology. The future remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: India recognizes that staying engaged in Afghanistan is not a choice, but a necessity.

The Diplomatic Tightrope: India’s Evolving Stance on Afghanistan

India’s approach to Afghanistan has evolved based on geopolitical shifts, security concerns, and economic interests. While India has historically maintained strong ties with Afghanistan, the return of the Taliban in 2021 forced a recalibration of its strategy. The current phase of engagement is driven by the need to secure strategic interests, counter regional adversaries, and maintain influence without fully legitimizing the Taliban regime.

Phase	Key Features	Examples	Reason for Engagement
Pre-2001: Limited Engagement	Maintained ties with anti-Taliban factions like the Northern Alliance. No formal engagement with the Taliban.	India supported Ahmad Shah Massoud and provided aid to anti-Taliban groups.	Preventing Pakistan-backed Taliban from gaining full control and ensuring a friendly regime in Kabul.
2001-2021: Strong Presence & Development Focus	Active involvement in Afghanistan’s reconstruction after the U.S.-led invasion. Focus on soft power, economic aid, and infrastructure projects.	Built the Afghan Parliament, Salma Dam, and provided scholarships to Afghan students.	Strengthening strategic ties, countering Pakistan’s influence, and expanding India’s economic and cultural footprint.
2021-2022: Uncertainty Post-Taliban Takeover	Withdrew diplomatic presence after the Taliban’s return. Adopted a wait-and-watch approach. Continued humanitarian aid without formal recognition.	Evacuated embassy staff; sent medical aid and wheat to Afghanistan.	Uncertainty about Taliban governance, avoiding direct engagement due to global pressure while maintaining humanitarian outreach.
2022-Present: Gradual Re-engagement	Reopened the embassy in Kabul, engaged in backchannel talks, and explored limited cooperation. First formal bilateral meeting held. Consideration of allowing a Taliban envoy in New Delhi.	India’s Foreign Secretary met the Taliban’s acting Foreign Minister in Dubai in 2024. India continues aid and limited diplomatic engagement.	Preventing Afghanistan from becoming a hub for anti-India terror groups, countering China-Pakistan influence, and safeguarding long-term regional interests.

India has long maintained a cautious approach toward the Taliban, balancing limited engagement with concerns over terrorism, human rights, and global alliances. However, if India accepts a Taliban-appointed envoy, it would mark a major policy shift with far-reaching consequences.

Determinants of India’s policy shift

Determinant	What It Means	Example
Indirect Recognition of the Taliban	Allowing a Taliban-appointed envoy would mean India is informally acknowledging the regime, even though it has no global legitimacy.	The U.S. and EU still refuse to recognize the Taliban due to human rights abuses.
Break from India’s Anti-Terrorism Stand	India has long opposed regimes linked to terrorism, and engaging with the Taliban contradicts that position.	India previously avoided the Taliban due to its ties with groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM).
Weakens India’s Human Rights Advocacy	The Taliban’s brutal treatment of women and minorities clashes with India’s global image as a democratic, rights-respecting nation.	The UN has called the Taliban’s policies “gender apartheid,” which India has also condemned.
Strains Ties with Western Allies	The U.S. and European nations have imposed sanctions and kept diplomatic distance from the Taliban, so India’s engagement could create friction.	The West still restricts financial dealings and diplomatic relations with the Taliban regime.
Sets a Risky Foreign Policy Precedent	Accepting a Taliban envoy could pressure India to engage with other controversial or unrecognized regimes.	It might open debates on whether India should also recognize Myanmar’s military junta or other disputed governments.

This isn’t just about one diplomatic post—it’s about India’s global standing and the message it sends to its allies and adversaries alike.

Major risks for India in engaging with the Taliban

India’s engagement with the Taliban comes with significant risks. The presence of terror groups, regional instability, and potential diplomatic fallout make the situation complex. Below are key challenges India faces in dealing with Afghanistan under Taliban rule.

Challenge	Explanation	Example
Security Threats and Terrorism	The Taliban maintains ties with groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), which have a history of targeting India.	The 2001 Indian Parliament attack was linked to JeM, which has operated from Taliban-controlled areas before.
Growing Influence of the Islamic State (IS-K)	The Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-K) has been expanding, carrying out deadly attacks even against the Taliban.	IS-K’s attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall in 2024 and the Kabul hotel bombing targeting Chinese nationals highlight Afghanistan’s instability.
Potential Diplomatic Backlash	Engaging with the Taliban could strain India’s relations with allies like the U.S. and the EU, which refuse to recognize the regime.	The U.S. and European nations maintain sanctions on the Taliban, and closer ties with Kabul could lead to criticism from Western partners.
Destabilization of India’s Western Borders	The Taliban’s alleged support for Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has worsened Pakistan’s security, raising concerns about spillover into India.	In February 2024 alone, TTP claimed responsibility for 147 attacks in Pakistan, indicating growing instability in the region.
Economic and Investment Risks	Any financial commitments in Afghanistan could be at risk due to the Taliban’s unpredictable rule and lack of transparency.	India has invested $3 billion in Afghan infrastructure, including the Salma Dam and Parliament, but their future remains uncertain under Taliban governance.

Way forward:

Strengthen Ties Under ‘Act West’ – India should take a pragmatic approach and leverage its historical ties with Afghanistan to play a bigger role in the region.
Boost Humanitarian Aid – To counter China’s growing influence, India must expand support for Afghan healthcare and refugee rehabilitation.
Restart Development Projects – Investing in infrastructure will stabilize Afghanistan’s economy, create jobs, curb terrorism, and strengthen India’s economic footprint.
Deepen Cultural Bonds – India should build stronger people-to-people connections by easing visa rules, supporting Afghan cricket, and offering more educational scholarships.
Expand Diplomatic Engagement – India must actively push for Afghanistan’s inclusion in global forums like SAARC to maintain its influence in regional decision-making.

#BACK2BASICS: REGIONAL POWER DYNAMICS OF SOUTH ASIA: KEY ELEMENTS

South Asia is shaped by complex geopolitical, economic, and security interactions among its nations. Here are seven key elements defining regional power dynamics:

Element	Explanation	Example
India’s Regional Dominance	As the largest economy and military power, India plays a central role in shaping South Asia’s politics, trade, and security.	India’s influence in SAARC, strategic partnerships with the U.S. and Russia, and leadership in regional connectivity projects.
China’s Expanding Influence	China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and deep economic ties with South Asian nations challenge India’s traditional dominance.	China’s investments in Pakistan (CPEC), Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port, and growing ties with the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Pakistan-India Rivalry	The historic conflict over Kashmir, cross-border terrorism, and military tensions drive instability in the region.	Frequent ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC) and the ongoing India-Pakistan diplomatic deadlock.
Afghanistan’s Security Instability	The Taliban’s rule, terrorism threats, and foreign interventions make Afghanistan a geopolitical flashpoint affecting regional security.	The Taliban’s ties with terror groups, Pakistan’s concerns over Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and India’s cautious engagement with Kabul.
The Role of the U.S. and Russia	The U.S. and Russia maintain influence through defense ties, economic aid, and strategic partnerships with South Asian nations.	U.S. defense ties with India and Pakistan, Russia’s arms exports to India, and both powers balancing relations with China.
Economic Competition and Trade Blocs	Regional economic cooperation remains limited due to political tensions, but new trade alignments are emerging.	India’s push for the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and Bangladesh’s growing trade with China.
Maritime Geopolitics in the Indian Ocean	The Indian Ocean is a key battleground for influence, with India, China, and the U.S. seeking naval dominance.	India’s SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) initiative vs. China’s growing naval presence in Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

South Asia’s power dynamics are in constant flux, with competing interests shaping the region’s future.

Impact of India’s Afghanistan Policy on South Asia’s Regional Power Dynamics

Maintaining Regional Influence – India’s engagement with the Taliban helps counter Pakistan and China’s growing foothold in Afghanistan.
Balancing China’s Expansion – India’s cautious approach contrasts with China’s deeper ties, making it crucial to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a Chinese stronghold.
Weakening Pakistan’s Influence – Taliban-Pakistan tensions create space for India to strengthen its role in Afghanistan.
Security Considerations – India seeks Taliban assurances to curb terror groups like ISIS-K and LeT but faces long-term reliability concerns.
Impact on Western Relations – Engaging with the Taliban may strain ties with the U.S. and EU, which refuse to recognize the Taliban due to human rights violations.
Economic and Trade Interests – India’s involvement helps safeguard its $3 billion infrastructure investments in Afghanistan and maintain trade access to Central Asia.
Strategic Connectivity and Maritime Routes – A stable Afghanistan benefits India’s trade routes, including the Chabahar port, strengthening its regional connectivity.

India’s evolving Afghanistan policy is a strategic move to counter regional rivals while securing economic and security interests. However, balancing Taliban engagement with global diplomatic expectations remains a challenge.