Context

The celebrations to mark the 25th year of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) have been accompanied by the announcement of several new initiatives.

Important outcome of BIMSTEC Summit

The summit had several important outcomes: Expanding the grouping’s agenda, deepening cooperation between the member countries and planning systematically for consistency and coherence.

1] Finalisation of charter

• The Bay of Bengal Community was launched in 1997. But its charter, finalised last week, was more than two decades in the making.
• The 20-page document adopted at the fifth BIMSTEC Summit articulates the purpose, principles and legal standing of the organisation.
• It also delineates the process to admit new members – this requires the consensus of the members.
•  The emphasis on consensus is important, given the sensitivities of the member countries.
• One important provision in the charter is to keep regular meetings on track and provide enough scope to the BIMSTEC Permanent Working Committee to keep the process energised.

2] Development on connectivity issues

• Amongst the important decisions is the one related to the BIMSTEC Master Plan for Transport Connectivity.
• The region requires seamless connectivity through multi-modal channels that improve links within and amongst the member countries.
• These channels should be in sync with the regulatory frameworks of the member countries.
• There are proposals to extend the trilateral highway project between Thailand, Myanmar and India to Laos and Cambodia. Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal have also evinced interest in the project.
• Digitisation has enhanced cooperation in customs regulations and facilitated and improved cargo clearance procedures. All this will surely enhance investment linkages and improve regional trade.

3] A systemic approach to streamline the evolution of BIMSTEC.

• Establishing an Eminent Persons’ Group (EPG) for formulating a vision document for the region will help in articulating the aspirations of the collective.
• EPGs have been quite useful in the EU and ASEAN.
• For instance, the ASEAN-India Eminent Persons Group (AIEPG) was constituted in 2005 after the Eighth ASEAN-India Summit.
• Its recommendations still guide the grouping’s work.
• In 2011, the EU constituted an EPG  to suggest a roadmap to address the challenges arising from the resurgence of intolerance and discrimination in Europe.

4] MoU for legal assistance and mutual cooperation

• The MoU for legal assistance in criminal matters and additional MoUs for mutual cooperation between diplomatic academics and training institutes would help in creating an ecosystem of deeper knowledge-related cooperation.
• The technology transfer facility proposed in Colombo is likely to augment these efforts.

India’s leading role

• India has promised $1 million to set up a Secretariat in Dhaka.
• India has identified several other areas where it will support the collective.
• Delhi will provide a $3 million grant to the BIMSTEC Centre for Weather and Climate, promote collaboration between industries and start-ups, and launch programmes that will help in the adoption of international standards and norms.
• Agricultural trade analysis: Delhi has also suggested a regional value chain based agricultural trade analysis – this will be conducted by the RIS.
• The Asian Development Bank and the New Delhi-based ICRIER have stewarded awareness programmes on trade facilitating measures in the member countries.
• Support to Sri Lanka and Nepal: The pandemic has created fresh challenges and aggravated old ones in the countries of the region, particularly Sri Lanka and Nepal.
• India’s support to these countries, especially in financial matters, could help in reducing undesirable external intervention in the region.

Way forward

• Need for FTA: The early completion of the regional free trade agreement could provide a fillip to the organisation’s efforts.
• Promote research on cultural and civilisation linkages: Besides economic links, the Bay of Bengal countries share a cultural and civilisational legacy.
• The role of institutions like Nalanda University in promoting research on cultural and civilisational linkages and improving the adoption of sustainable practices would be equally significant.

Conclusion

The collective’s fifth summit that concluded in Colombo showcased member nations’ resolve to facilitate connectivity and security and enhance the prosperity of the region.

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More than two decades after its formation, BIMSTEC still remains a work in progress. And it has many obstacles to overcome. The article highlights challenges and progress made so far.

Background of BIMSTEC

• The foreign ministers of BIMSTEC (the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) met virtually on April 1.
• It was established as a grouping of four nations — India, Thailand, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka — through the Bangkok Declaration of 1997 to promote rapid economic development.
• BIMSTEC was expanded later to include three more countries — Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan.
• It moved at a leisurely pace during its first 20 years with only three summits held and a record of modest achievements.

Growing significance

• BIMSTEC suddenly received special attention when India chose to treat it as a more practical instrument for regional cooperation over a faltering SAARC.
• The BIMSTEC Leaders’ Retreat, followed by their Outreach Summit with the BRICS leaders in Goa in October 2016, drew considerable international limelight to the low-profile regional grouping.
• At the fourth leaders’ summit in Kathmandu in 2018, a plan for institutional reform and renewal that would encompass economic and security cooperation was devised.
• It took the important decision to craft a charter to provide BIMSTEC with a more formal and stronger foundation.
• The shared goal now is to head towards “a Peaceful, Prosperous and Sustainable Bay of Bengal Region”.

Why the recent summit is important

• In the recent virtual summit, the foreign ministers cleared the draft for the BIMSTEC charter.
• They endorsed the rationalisation of sectors and sub-sectors of activity, with each member-state serving as a lead for the assigned areas of special interest.
• The ministers also conveyed their support for the Master Plan for Transport Connectivity.
• Preparations have been completed for the signing of three agreements:
• 1) Mutual legal assistance in criminal matters.
• 2) Cooperation between diplomatic academies.
• 3) The establishment of a technology transfer facility in Colombo.

Lack of progress on trade

• In the recent deliberation, there was no reference to the lack of progress on the trade and economic dossier.
• A January 2018 study by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry had suggested that BIMSTEC urgently needed a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement to be a real game-changer.
• Ideally, it should cover trade in goods, services and investment; promote regulatory harmonisation; adopt policies that develop regional value chains, and eliminate non-tariff barriers.
• Also lacking was an effort to enthuse and engage the vibrant business communities of these seven countries.
• Over 20 rounds of negotiations to operationalise the BIMSTEC Free Trade Area Framework Agreement, signed in 2004, are yet to bear fruit.

Achievements

• Much has been achieved in Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief and security, including counterterrorism, cybersecurity, and coastal security cooperation.
• India has led through constant focus and follow-up.
• While national business chambers are yet to be optimally engaged with the BIMSTEC project, the academic and strategic community has shown ample enthusiasm through the BIMSTEC Network of Policy Think Tanks and other fora.

Challenges

• A strong BIMSTEC presupposes cordial and tension-free bilateral relations among all its member-states.
• However, there has been tensions in India-Nepal, India-Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh-Myanmar ties in recent years.
• Second, uncertainties over SAARC hovers, complicating matters. Both Kathmandu and Colombo want the SAARC summit revived, even as they cooperate within BIMSTEC, with diluted zeal.
• Third, China’s decisive intrusion in the South-Southeast Asian space has cast dark shadows.
• Finally, the military coup in Myanmar and the continuation of popular resistance resulting in a protracted impasse have produced a new set of challenges.

Consider the question “What are the challenges BIMSTEC faces in emerging as an alternative to the SAARC? What are its achievements?”

Conclusion

The grouping needs to reinvent itself, possibly even rename itself as ‘The Bay of Bengal Community’. It should consider holding regular annual summits. Only then will its leaders convince the region about their strong commitment to the new vision they have for this unique platform linking South Asia and Southeast Asia.

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The article examines the issues are making it difficult to function and suggests its revival.

Dysfunctional SAARC and its implications

• The year 2020 marked the sixth year since the leaders of the eight nations that make up SAARC were able to meet.
• India-Pakistan issues have impacted other meetings of SAARC as well.
• Inactive SAARC is making it easier for member countries, as well as international agencies, to deal with South Asia as a fragmented group.
• India’s refusal to allow Pakistan to host the SAARC summit is akin to giving Pakistan a ‘veto’ over the entire SAARC process.
• The events of 2020, particularly the novel coronavirus pandemic and China’s aggressions at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) shone a new spotlight on this mechanism.
• This should make the government review its position and reverse that trend.

Reasons India should review its position on SAARC

1) India attend other forums with Pakistan

• India continued to attend Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meetings along with their Pakistani counterparts.
• While China’s incursions in Ladakh constituted the larger concern in the year, India did not decline to attend meetings with the Chinese leadership at the SCO, the Russia-India-China trilateral, the G-20 and others.
• No concerns over territorial claims stopped the government from engaging with Nepal either.

2) Pandemic caused challenges

• Reviving SAARC is crucial to countering the common challenges brought about by the pandemic.
• Studies have shown that South Asia’s experience of the pandemic has been unique from other regions of the world.
• This experience needs to be studied further in a comprehensive manner in order to counter future pandemics.
• Such an approach is also necessary for the distribution and further trials needed for vaccines, as well as developing cold storage chains for the vast market that South Asia represents.

3) Impact of the pandemic on economies of South Asia

• Apart from the overall GDP slowdown, global job cuts which will lead to an estimated 22% fall in revenue for migrant labour and expatriates from South Asian countries.
• World Bank have suggested that South Asian countries work as a collective to set standards for labour from the region, and also to promoting a more intra-regional, transnational approach towards tourism, citing successful examples including the ‘East Africa Single Joint Visa’ system.
• In the longer term, there will be a shift in priorities towards health security, food security, and job security, that will also benefit from an “all-of” South Asia approach.
• While it will be impossible for countries to cut themselves off from the global market entirely, regional initiatives will become the “Goldilocks option”.

4) Dealing with the China challenge

• In dealing with the challenge from China too, both at India’s borders and in its neighbourhood, a unified South Asian platform remains India’s most potent countermeasure.
• At the border, tensions with Pakistan and Nepal amplify the threat perception from China, while other SAARC members (minus Bhutan), all of whom are Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partners of China will be hard placed to help individually.
• Significantly, from 2005-14, China actually wanted to join SAARC.
• Despite the rebuff, China has continued to push its way into South Asia.

Conclusion

Seen through Beijing’s prism, India’s SAARC neighbourhood may be a means to contain India, with the People’s Liberation Army strategies against India over the LAC at present, or in conjunction with Pakistan or Nepal at other disputed fronts in the future. New Delhi must find its own prism with which to view its South Asian neighbourhood as it should be: a unit that has a common future, and as a force-multiplier for India’s ambitions on the global stage.

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The article discusses the various common features shared by the South Asians countries. One of them is the poor public healthcare infrastructure. So, the pandemic offers an opportunity to make the required policy changes. It also offers the opportunity for cooperation among the regional countries in dealing with Covid-19. These issues are discussed in the article.

South Asian countries: Common features, common problems

• South Asia, one of the world’s most populous regions, is also affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Both Karachi and Mumbai, among the world’s most densely populated cities, where we live and work, are being overwhelmed by cases.
• While the death rate in these places may not be as alarming as in Europe and the U.S., the collateral damage of the lockdown is taking its own toll.
• Common features of South Asia: While there are many differences amongst the countries of the region, there are also common features which impact the health of its people, some of them a result of our shared cultural and geopolitical history.
• The collective experience of dealing with COVID-19 may provide important lessons, which transcend national boundaries.

Poor healthcare system: a common problem

• South Asian countries have invested very little in health.
• This is reflected in our abysmally low health parameters.
• It is interesting that Britain, which formulated our health policies before independence, went on to form one of the world’s strongest public health systems, the National Health Service.
• Whereas its South Asian colonies chose to stray from that path.
• This resulted in a dysfunctional public healthcare
• Governments have also relinquished what ought to have been their primary duty, of health care provision, to the private sector.
• Having become an industry, the focus of healthcare in the private sector is on profit rather than on people’s needs.
• High treatment costs in private sector: Whilst privatisation has brought in advanced technology and expertise, the high costs of treatment in the private sector have resulted in impoverishment as most of the population has no insurance or third-party coverage, and pays out of pocket.
• The sector has also been poorly regulated.
• The result is that it is responsible for several excesses in its quest for profit.

Other common features of the region

• Hunger, malnutrition, poor sanitation and large-scale migration are features of this region.
• Existing infectious diseases like TB, HIV and malaria have been worsened by emerging ones like dengue, chikungunya, healthcare-associated infections and antimicrobial resistance.
• The region is also an epicentre of an epidemic of lifestyle diseases.
• Conflicts and expenditure on defence: Constant internal and external conflicts in South Asia not only consume a large portion of national budgets but also divert the attention of the public and policymakers from healthcare needs.
• Defence budgets take the largest share of national budgets, and obviously adversely impact social sector spending.
• Underfunded public health is going to hinder region’s capacity to fight COVID-19.
• The central role of religion: Religion continues to occupy a central space in the society and politics of the region.
• Though it offers succour to many, religious dogma can impact health policy and health-seeking behaviour.
• The refusal of devotees across Pakistan to avoid religious congregations during Ramadan despite the government’s orders has significantly fed the community spread of the virus.

Opportunity for policy changes to address healthcare problems

• COVID-19 has forced us to seriously reflect on our healthcare system.
• This is welcome if it results in policy change.
• Healthcare professionals and bodies must seize this opportunity to push our respective governments to address it seriously and not just as a pre-election strategy.
• A long-term commitment to universal health care, with not only a national but also a regional and global focus, is needed.

A question on this theme could be asked by the UPSC, for instance, “South Asian countries share the common problem of poor public healthcare infrastructure, which increases their vulnerability to the pandemic. But corona pandemic also offers an opportunity to improve the shortcoming in the health infrastructure and cooperation among the SAARC countries. Comment.”

Regional strategy and cooperation needed

• The SAARC heads of state have already offered help to one another.
• A regional strategy has a better chance of controlling the pandemic than isolated national-level efforts.
• The pooling of resources and sharing data may not only help flatten the curve but perhaps even develop into longer-term efforts towards effective treatment.
• It is being speculated that our populations are behaving differently; that the BCG vaccine may be a protective influence.
• Joint research into such areas can be a unifying point for SAARC.

Conclusion

It is in our collective interest to look at health security and not just national security. By the accident of their birth, South Asians have endured a lot. They merit better.

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Context

A tweet by Prime Minister Narendra Modi resulted in the first-ever virtual summit of SAARC leaders on March 15. What has happened to this innovative exercise in health diplomacy since then?

The follow-up after the video-conference of SAARC members

• Considering that SAARC has been dormant for several years due to regional tensions, it is worth stressing that the fight against COVID-19 has been taken up in right earnest through a series of tangible measures.
• First, all the eight member-states were represented at the video conference — all at the level of head of state or government, except Pakistan.
• The Secretary-General of SAARC participated. They readily agreed to work together to contain the virus and shared their experiences and perspectives.
• Second, India’s proposal to launch a COVID-19 Emergency Fund was given positive reception.
• Within days, all the countries, except Pakistan, contributed to it voluntarily, bringing the total contributions to $18.8 million. Although it is a modest amount, the spirit of readily expressed solidarity behind it matters.
• Third, the fund has already been operationalised. It is controlled neither by India nor by the Secretariat.
• It is learnt that each contributing member-state is responsible for approval and disbursement of funds in response to requests received from others.
• Fourth, in the domain of implementation, India is in the lead, with its initial contribution of $10 million.
• It has received requests for medical equipment, medicines and other supplies from Bhutan, Nepal, Afghanistan, Maldives, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
• Many requests have already been accepted and action has been taken, whereas others are under implementation.
• Fifth, a follow-up video-conference of senior health officials was arranged on March 26.
• The agenda included issues ranging from specific protocols dealing with the screening at entry points and contact tracing to online training capsules for emergency response teams.
• Technical cooperation: Steps are now underway to nurture technical cooperation through a shared electronic platform as also to arrange an exchange of all useful information among health professionals through more informal means.

Is the fund sufficient to deal with the grave threat?

• So far, South Asia has not exactly borne the brunt of the pandemic.
• Of the total confirmed cases in the world that stood at 12,89,380 on April 6 (according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resources Center), SAARC countries reported only 8,292 cases, representing 0.64%.
• Reasons of lower spread not known: Whether the low share is due to limited testing, a peculiarity of the strain of the virus, people’s unique immunity, South Asia’s climate, decisive measures by governments, or just good fortune is difficult to say.
• But it is evident that India’s imaginative diplomacy has leveraged the crisis to create a new mechanism for workable cooperation.
• It will become stronger if the crisis deepens and if member-states see advantages in working together. Seven of the eight members already do.

Is it the sign of revival of SAARC?

• To conclude that SAARC is now returning to an active phase on a broad front may, however, be
• In the backdrop of political capital invested by New Delhi in strengthening BIMSTEC and the urgings it received recently from Nepal and Sri Lanka to resuscitate SAARC, India’s foreign minister said that India had no preference for a specific platform.
• But India was fully committed to the cause of regional cooperation and connectivity.
• The challenge facing the region is how to relate to a country which claims to favour regional cooperation, while working against it.
• Clearly, India has little difficulty in cooperating with like-minded neighbours, as it showed by forging unity in the war against COVID-19.
• This is diplomatic resilience and leadership at its best.

Conclusion

Given the grave threat posed by the pandemic and other benefits that the multilateral platforms such as SAARC offers Both New Delhi and its friendly neighbours need to start preparing themselves for SAARC 2.0.

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Context

If PM Modi’s gesture to SAARC is to go some way towards a solution for the region, India, which will be picking up the pieces itself, must have something to offer to its neighbours.

Background

• Not a viable option: Since 2014, when the last SAARC summit was held in Kathmandu, India had made it more than clear that it no longer considers the South Asia grouping viable.
  • It was Islamabad’s turn to host the next summit in 2016, but the Uri attack intervened, and India refused to attend.
• SAARC in limbo: Under the SAARC charter, the summit cannot be held even if a single nation stays away, and the grouping has remained in limbo since.
• India’s increased engagement with other groups: In the last five years, India has actively sought to isolate Pakistan in the region.
  • India hyped up its engagement with other regional groupings such as-
  • BBIN (Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal), and
  • BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation), which includes Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Nepal and Bhutan.

How to read the sudden resurrection of SAARC?

• Officials denied revival speculation: Despite hopes that this might be a SAARC revival, officials have discounted such speculation. That would require India to climb down from its position that Pakistan has taken verifiable steps to address India’s concerns on terrorism. There is no evidence at all that Delhi is about to do that.
• No hope of move from Pakistan: It would need Pakistan to turn over a new leaf, stop playing with free radicals to use against India, in Kashmir or elsewhere when the time is ripe. Neither is about to happen.

No cooperative response in the works

• First to call the neighbours: At a time when leaders across the globe appeared to be engrossed in the COVID-19 calamity of their own nations, Modi was the first to think of calling the neighbours.
• Why cooperation among neighbours matter? Almost all South Asian countries are bound to each other by land borders and frequent inter-travel, and it is important that the region liaises to stop the disease from spreading across the Subcontinent.
• Countries not willing to learn from each other: It was a trifle disappointing, therefore, that beyond the experience of witnessing a unique video summit, there is not much to suggest that a cooperative response is in the works.
  • There is no evidence that each country is willing to learn from the other’s experiences, or public health systems, or that we are tracking each other’s data and responses.
• What were the proposals made in the summit? Two proposals were made:
  • One by India for a regional fund that Modi has generously offered to put aside $10 million for.
  • Pakistan proposed the setting up of a diseases surveillance centre for sharing real-time data. India has said it would prepare emergency response task forces to help out the member countries in need.
  • Delhi is said to be in the process of sending medical supplies worth $1 million to Nepal, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Maldives, which sounds like a fraction of what they may eventually require.
  • Pakistan has said China will give it testing kits, protective gear and portable ventilators, as well as a cash grant for a state-of-the-art isolation centre.
  • Beijing, eager to live down its image as the point of origin for this global mayhem, will make the same offer to other South Asian countries soon.

What were the lessons India need to learn from video-summit?

• Indian need to go beyond Big Brother events: If the intention was to try and restore the aura Prime Minister Modi enjoyed in the region at the beginning of NDA-1, as some have not improbably suggested, it has to go beyond this Big Boss event.
  • The video summit saw polite attendance by all SAARC leaders, with the exception of Pakistan which sent its health minister.
  • But going by the scant media coverage that the summit, the first after six years, received in the neighbourhood, no one is holding their breath.
• India has lost heft it once held: For many countries in the region now, India has lost the heft it used to have in the last century.
  • A proximate reason is that it is no longer an economic powerhouse nor holds the promise of being one in the near future.
  • The other reason is that it no longer offers itself as a model nation, pulling together its complex diversities, pluralism and political ideologies in a broad-minded vision.
• CAA factor and changing the perception of India: The real damage to India’s standing was, of course, done by the badmouthing of the Muslim countries in the neighbourhood to justify the Citizenship (Amendment) Act 2019.
  • Larger image of themselves: Seen from the eyes of other countries in South Asia today, India is now just a larger version of themselves and their political and economic dysfunctions.
  • While additionally possessing and wielding the instruments to be vengeful and punitive in its foreign policy — including arm-twisting them now and then in its constant quest to isolate Pakistan.

Conclusion

• The real test for India lies ahead: The real test of Modi’s leadership of South Asia, and by extension of India’s, will come after the pandemic subsides, when each country has to deal with what remains of its economy.
  • The tourism economy of Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka would have been crushed by then. Pakistan will be worse off than it is now.
  • There will be more unemployment and hardship everywhere in the region.
  • Some of these countries will inevitably turn to China.
• India must have something to offer as a solution: If Modi’s gesture is to go some way as part of the solution for the region, India, which will be picking up the pieces itself, must have something to offer to its South Asian neighbours six months to a year down the line.
  • Is there such a plan? Can India put aside the prejudices of its domestic communalism, and its own economic woes, demonstrate large-heartedness to all the countries of the region, irrespective of what religion its people follow, irrespective of its historical hostilities with at least one?
  • There may be more economic refugees knocking on India’s doors, apart from a host of other inter-regional problems.

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Context

Prime Minister Narendra Modi signalled a change in India’s rejection of SAARC as a platform for regional cooperation by inviting all heads of state and government of SAARC countries to a video summit to promote a region-wide response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

SAARC in virtual deep freeze

• Who attended the video conference? The video summit was attended by all SAARC leaders, except for Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan, who deputed his special assistant for health to represent him.
• Status of SAARC: SAARC has been in a virtual deep freeze since India conveyed it would not attend the 19th SAARC summit, to be hosted by Pakistan in 2017, in the wake of the cross-border terrorist incidents at Pathankot and Uri.
  • Other SAARC leaders also declined to attend.
  • The summit was indefinitely postponed.
• Focus on BIMSTEC: Since then India has downgraded SAARC as an instrument of its “Neighbourhood First” policy and shifted the focus to the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) instead.

Backdrop of SAARC revival

• For his swearing-in ceremony in 2014, PM Modi had invited leaders of all SAARC countries including Pakistan.
• For the swearing-in ceremony in 2019, it is BIMSTEC leaders who were the invited guests.
• Soon after taking over as external affairs minister, S Jaishankar referred to SAARC having “certain problems” while BIMSTEC was described as having both energy and possibility and “a mindset which fits in with that very optimistic vision of economic cooperation that we want.”
• Deliberate political message: Against this backdrop, Modi’s initiative in convening a SAARC video summit, instead of a BIMSTEC video summit, conveys a deliberate political message.

Proposal of SAARC Covid-19 Fund and Health Ministers’ Conference

• At the conference, Modi gave a call for the countries of SAARC “coming together and not going apart.”
• A SAARC Covid-19 Fund has been proposed with India committing US$10 million.
• Modi referred to the role which could be played by an existing SAARC institution, the Disaster Management Centre, in enabling a coordinated response to Covid-19.
• Suggestions were made by several leaders, including the Pakistani representative, for a SAARC Health Ministers’ Conference to follow up on the summit. This is likely to be convened soon.

Pakistan on defensive

• India seen as undermining SAARC: Modi’s initiative has put Pakistan on the defensive. So far, it was India which was seen as undermining SAARC in which other South Asian countries have a keen interest.
• BIMSTEC no alternative to SAARC: While there has been readiness on their part to participate in BIMSTEC, they do not consider the latter as an alternative to SAARC. In taking this initiative, Modi may be responding to these sentiments.
• Onus on Pakistan: If Pakistan now drags its feet, then the onus will be on her for weakening the Association.
  • There is a new situation as a result of the abrogation of Article 370 relating to Kashmir, which has been denounced by Pakistan.
• Difficulty for Pakistan: It would be difficult for Pakistan to accept cooperation with India under SAARC because this would compromise its stand on Kashmir.

BIMSTEC not delivered expected results

• Not yielded the expected result: It is also a fact that the focus on BIMSTEC has not yielded the results India may have expected.
• Trade below the set target: Current trade among its members is US$40 billion, though the potential was set at $250 billion.
• Act East policy stalled: India’s Act East policy, which involved a key role for India’s Northeast, has stalled.
• RCEP factor: The Northeast is in political turmoil while India has opted out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which would have added substance to BIMSTEC.

Why India should revive SAARC

1.BIMSTEC not a credible option to SAARC

• Today it is difficult to see BIMSTEC as a credible and preferred alternative to SAARC.
• Cooperation both through SAARC and BIMSTEC: In any case, it makes better sense for India to pursue regional economic cooperation both through SAARC as well as BIMSTEC rather than project them as competing entities.
• SCO membership a contradictory position: If the argument is that regional cooperation involving Pakistan is a non-starter due to its ingrained hostility towards India, then being part of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), where both are members, becomes a somewhat contradictory position.

2.The China factor

• China making inroad into the neighbourhood: In determining its position towards SAARC, India must also take into account the significant inroads that China has been making in its sub-continental neighbourhood.
• BRI initiative: With the exception of Bhutan, every South Asian country has signed on to China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
  • A number of Chinese infrastructure projects are already in place or are being planned in each of our neighbours.
• China likely to become a key player: With SAARC becoming inoperative and BIMSTEC not living up to its promise, China is likely to become a key economic partner for South Asia and India’s hitherto pre-eminent role will be further eroded.
  • On this count, too, it is advisable for India to advance regional cooperation both under SAARC as well as BIMSTEC. Both are necessary.

3.Pakistan factor

• Should not give up on Pakistan: Despite the frustration in dealing with Pakistan, India should not give up on its western neighbour.
• Relation needs to be managed: Relations with Islamabad will remain adversarial for the foreseeable future but still need to be managed with two ends in mind.
  • One, to ensure that tensions do not escalate into open hostilities and,
  • two, to reduce leverage which third countries may exercise over both countries on the pretext of reducing tensions between them.
• No compromise in position on terrorism: This does not in any way compromise our firm stand against cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan. The revival of SAARC could be an added constraint on Pakistan’s recourse to terrorism as an instrument of state policy.

4.Afghanistan factor

• Finally, the revival of SAARC would also support the Ashraf Ghani government in Kabul in navigating through a difficult and complex peace process involving a Pakistan-sponsored Taliban.

Conclusion

While these are essentially tactical considerations, there is a compelling reality which we ignore at our peril. Whether it is a health crisis like the Covid-19 or climate change, the melting of Himalayan glaciers or rising sea levels, all such challenges are better and more efficiently dealt with through regional cooperation. The Indian Subcontinent is an ecologically integrated entity and only regionally structured and collaborative responses can work.

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Context

SAARC has become the ‘virtual’ platform through which leaders of the eight countries of our troubled region agreed to work together to combat unarguably the greatest immediate threat to the people: the COVID-19 health pandemic.

Success depends on India

• The success of the Modi-SAARC initiative will largely depend on India—the dominant power of the region, in every sense.
• Pakistan’s position may become marginal: Once New Delhi demonstrates that it has the capacity, the political willingness to institutionalise and to lead a mutually beneficial cooperative regime in the region, Pakistan’s “churlish” behaviour will become marginal to SAARC.
  • Various international relations theorists view this as a function of “hegemonic stability”.
• Much needs to be done: Much more will need to be done by New Delhi to establish that the video conference was not a mere event, but the assertive expression of its new willingness to stabilise the region through cooperative mechanisms, for our common future.
• Rare opportunity: This is a moment thus of a rare opportunity for India to establish its firm imprimatur over the region, and to secure an abiding partnership for our shared destiny.

The genesis of SAARC

• SAARC was born at a moment of hope in the 1980s.
• An initiative by Zia Ur Rehman: The idea was initiated by one of the most inscrutable leaders of the region, General Zia Ur Rehman of Bangladesh, who, met many of the other leaders personally and dispatched special envoys to the capitals of the countries of the region.
  • Dhaka’s persistence resulted in the first summit of the seven leaders of the region in 1985.
  • Afghanistan joined in 2007.
• Not lived up to expectation: In the nearly 35 years of its existence, even its champions will concede however that SAARC has, to put it euphemistically, not lived up to the promise of its founder.

How the SAARC has performed?

• The dismal performance in the trade: South Asia is the world’s least integrated region; less than 5% of the trade of SAARC countries is within. A South Asian Free Trade Zone agreed on, in 2006, remains, in reality, a chimera.
• Moribund state: The last SAARC summit, scheduled to be held in Islamabad in November 2016, was postponed after the terrorist attacks in Uri; none has been held since then, and until Mr. Modi’s initiative, no major meeting had been planned.
• Marginal in our collective consciousness: A quick look at some of the questions posed in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha on SAARC, in the last years, suggest that Indian MPs seek answers on why India is still a member of SAARC and on the strength of other organisations such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) that India is engaged with.
  • Thus SAARC had become almost marginal to our collective consciousness.

The fadeout and revival of SAARC

• India-Pakistan tension: Clearly, most of the smaller states and external players believe that the India-Pakistan conflict has undermined SAARC.
• How Pakistan derails the initiatives? Bilateral issues cannot be discussed in SAARC but since the organisation relies on the principle of unanimity for all major decisions, Pakistan has often undermined even the most laudable initiative lest it gives India an advantage.
  • Relative gains by India are more important for Pakistan than the absolute gains it secures for itself.
• Pakistan’s use of terror: For India, Pakistan’s use of terror as an instrument of foreign policy has made normal business impossible.
• Need of the revival to deal with the COVID-19: There is no doubt that the impact of COVID-19 will be unprecedented, in terms of those it targets and the way we live. It is too early to judge the consequences , but it will take years for the world to return to the old and familiar.
  • Strategies to cope with this new insidious, scheming and diabolic strain of the coronavirus have to be dynamic and ad hoc.
  • Two principles to deal with the epidemic: Containment and the possible prevention of community transmission are the only two principles that are firmly tested.
  • If community transmission occurs and cannot be contained, the consequences will be calamitous.
• Time to act together: This is indeed a time for SAARC and the experts of the region to think and act together and India can lead this effort.

Conclusion

It is evident that Mr Modi is an out-of-the-box lateral thinker, especially on foreign policy. More importantly, the tragedy of COVID-19 may provide an opportunity for India to demonstrate its compassionate face to secure a region at peace with itself. India cannot afford to not to harvest this opportunity, after having sowed the seeds of a New South Asia.

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