What’s the news?

• The Russia-Ukraine conflict has made NATO summits more significant than ever. The wide presence of four Asia-Pacific countries: Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea has made this year’s summit more prominent especially for Indo- pacific

Central idea

• The recent NATO summit was held in Vilnius, Lithuania, marked a significant turning point for the alliance. The summit showcased NATO’s increasing focus on the Indo-Pacific region, signifying the importance of this area for Euro-Atlantic security.

What is Indo-Pacific?

• The Indo-Pacific is a geographic region interpreted differently by different countries.
• For India, the geography of the Indo-Pacific stretches from the eastern coast of Africa to Oceania whereas, for US, it extends up to the west coast of India which is also the geographic boundary of the US Indo-Pacific command.

NATO’s Historical Background and Pivot Towards Asia

• Founded in 1949, NATO emerged as a response to concerns over expanding Soviet influence in Eastern Europe.
• Originally cantered on trans-Atlantic security, the alliance has evolved to address pressing global security challenges.
• The recent summit’s agenda highlighted issues in the Indo-Pacific, such as North Korea’s nuclear activities, ballistic missile tests, and China’s military expansion and modernization.

Indo-Pacific Partnerships and Collaborations during the summit

• NATO and Japan:
• Individually Tailored Partnership Program between NATO and Japan was signed for the period of 2023-2026- focuses on cooperation in new technologies, space, and supply chain resilience.
• NATO and New Zealand:
• New Zealand was recognized as a valued partner by NATO during the summit.
• The alliance praised the collaboration with New Zealand in various areas, including cyber defense, counter-terrorism, arms control, and new technologies.
• NATO and South Korea:
• A significant agreement was reached between NATO and South Korea further strengthening their collaboration in emerging areas, particularly related to hybrid threats.
• NATO and Australia: Presence of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the NATO summit indicates a willingness to strengthen ties and foster cooperation in areas of common concern

Significance of the Indo-Pacific for NATO

• The Indo-Pacific is home to numerous security challenges that have implications beyond the region.
• These challenges include North Korea’s nuclear and missile activities, China’s military expansion, territorial disputes, and non-traditional security threats such as cyber-attacks and terrorism.
• China’s growing economic, political, and military influence in the Indo-Pacific has global ramifications.
• China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its assertive actions in the South China Sea have raised concerns among NATO allies about potential disruptions to regional stability and international norms.
• The Indo-Pacific region is a major driver of the global economy, with many NATO member states heavily reliant on trade and economic ties with countries in the area.
• Ensuring the security of critical sea lanes and trade routes is essential for NATO’s economic interests and stability.
• Collaborating with Indo-Pacific countries can contribute to a rules-based international order and strengthen NATO’s global reach.

Concerns Over NATO’s Role in Indo-Pacific

• Ambiguity and uncertainty within the alliance regarding NATO’s official presence and role in the Indo-Pacific.
• French President Emmanuel Macron’s public opposition to the idea of opening a NATO liaison office in Tokyo highlighted these concerns.
• Establishing an official NATO presence in proximity to China could potentially unsettle the Chinese security establishment and may be perceived as a challenge to China’s regional interests.
• Unease among ASEAN and other South Asian countries with strategic interests in the area.
• Some ASEAN countries’ centrality in the Indo-Pacific being replaced by bloc politics led by NATO.
• It could stretch the alliance’s resources and capabilities- divert attention away from NATO’s core mission in the Euro-Atlantic region.

Interesting read: What is Thucydides’ Trap?

• Thucydides’ Trap is a term derived from the historical work “History of the Peloponnesian War” by the ancient Greek historian Thucydides. Thucydides chronicled the conflict between the city-state of Athens and the rising power of Sparta in the 5th century BC, which eventually led to the Peloponnesian War.
• The central idea behind Thucydides’ Trap is that when a rising power challenges an established power, the competition between the two can lead to conflict or war.
• Thucydides famously wrote, “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” The rising power’s ascent and the fear it generates in the established power create a dangerous and unstable situation that may lead to a conflict as both sides jostle for power and influence.
• In the context of modern times, NATO’s involvement in the region could inadvertently contribute to the Thucydides’ Trap, where a rising power (China) and an established power (United States) risk conflict
• It serves as a warning to policymakers that managing the rise of a new power and avoiding a potential conflict requires careful diplomacy, strategic communication, and the establishment of mechanisms to peacefully resolve disputes

Conclusion

• The recent NATO summit in Vilnius showcased the alliance’s Look East moment, highlighting its increased focus on the Indo-Pacific region. Strengthening ties with Indo-Pacific partners is crucial amid the evolving global strategic landscape. However, NATO must navigate carefully and exercise caution while addressing the challenges of the 21st century and the changing dynamics of the international order.

Also read:

North East as Gateway to Indo-Pacific Strategy

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Central idea

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming week-long journey to Japan, Papua New Guinea, and Australia signifies India’s active participation in global affairs. As he engages with G-7 leaders in Hiroshima, Japan, and travels to other countries, bilateral issues will take a back seat to India’s position in the multilateral sphere. With an increasingly polarized world and mounting challenges such as the Russian war in Ukraine and China’s geopolitical influence, India must strike a careful balance.

India’s engagement with Quad and the Indo-Pacific Coalition

• Security Cooperation: The Quad countries, including India, collaborate on security issues in the Indo-Pacific region. This includes intelligence sharing, joint military exercises, and enhancing maritime domain awareness to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific.
• Maritime Security: As maritime nations, the Quad members aim to promote maritime security, freedom of navigation, and respect for international law, particularly in the contested waters of the Indo-Pacific. They work towards preventing conflicts, promoting stability, and addressing challenges such as illegal fishing, piracy, and maritime territorial disputes.
• Connectivity Initiatives: The Quad focuses on promoting transparent, sustainable, and quality infrastructure development in the Indo-Pacific region. This includes collaborative efforts to enhance connectivity, digitalization, and economic integration, fostering economic growth and regional prosperity.
• Supply Chain Resilience: Recognizing the importance of secure and resilient supply chains, the Quad aims to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on a single country or region. This includes exploring opportunities for cooperation in critical sectors such as technology, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors.
• Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief: The Quad members collaborate in providing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief during crises and natural disasters in the Indo-Pacific region. This cooperation ensures a coordinated response, timely assistance, and efficient resource mobilization.
• Vaccine Diplomacy: In response to the global COVID-19 pandemic, the Quad countries, including India, have collaborated on vaccine distribution and production. This initiative aims to ensure equitable access to vaccines in the region, demonstrating solidarity and cooperation in addressing public health challenges.
• Economic and Trade Cooperation: The Quad members explore opportunities for enhancing economic and trade ties. They seek to promote a free, open, and rules-based trading system, address trade barriers, and facilitate economic growth and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific.
• Regional Stability and Rules-Based Order: The Quad and Indo-Pacific Coalition share a common goal of promoting regional stability and upholding a rules-based international order. This includes respect for sovereignty, peaceful resolution of disputes, and adherence to international law.

India’s position in the multilateral sphere

• Global Leadership: As the world’s largest democracy and a rising global power, India’s voice carries weight in multilateral forums. It provides leadership and represents the interests of developing countries, particularly in areas such as poverty alleviation, sustainable development, and climate change.
• Regional Integration: India actively promotes regional integration and cooperation, both within South Asia and in the broader Indo-Pacific region. It seeks to enhance connectivity, trade, and people-to-people exchanges, contributing to regional stability, economic growth, and collective security.
• South-South Cooperation: India actively engages in South-South Cooperation, which involves collaboration among developing countries to address common challenges and promote economic growth. India shares its expertise in areas such as agriculture, healthcare, technology, and capacity-building, supporting the development efforts of other nations.
• Global Development Initiatives: India is actively involved in global development initiatives, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by the United Nations. It contributes to discussions on poverty eradication, education, healthcare, gender equality, and sustainable development, aiming to foster inclusive growth and reduce global disparities.
• Nuclear Non-Proliferation: India has positioned itself as a responsible nuclear power and advocates for global nuclear disarmament. It actively participates in discussions on nuclear non-proliferation, safeguards, and peaceful uses of nuclear energy, while also asserting its right to pursue civilian nuclear energy for development purposes.
• Global Health Initiatives: India plays a vital role in global health initiatives, particularly in the context of access to affordable medicines and vaccines. It actively engages in discussions related to public health, pharmaceutical regulations, and the provision of healthcare to underserved populations, demonstrating its commitment to global health equity.
• Peacekeeping Operations: India is one of the largest contributors to United Nations peacekeeping missions, showcasing its commitment to international peace and security. Indian peacekeepers have been deployed to various conflict zones, helping maintain stability and providing humanitarian assistance in challenging environments.
• Non-Aligned Movement (NAM): India has been a prominent member of the Non-Aligned Movement, a group of nations that seek to maintain their independence and avoid alignment with any major power bloc. India’s participation in NAM showcases its commitment to an independent foreign policy and its role as a bridge between different ideological groupings.

key aspects of India’s skillful balancing act

• Strategic Autonomy: India maintains strategic autonomy by pursuing an independent foreign policy that prioritizes its national interests. It engages with multiple countries and groups, avoiding over-reliance on any single power bloc or alliance.
• Non-Alignment and Multi-Alignment: While India was a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement, it has adopted a multi-aligned approach in recent years. India engages with a diverse range of partners, including major powers, regional groupings, and developing countries, forging partnerships based on mutual interests and shared values.
• Diversifying Partnerships: India seeks to diversify its partnerships across regions and countries. It engages with both Western and non-Western nations, fostering relationships with the United States, European Union, ASEAN, African Union, Gulf countries, and others. This diversity helps India maintain a balanced approach and access multiple avenues for collaboration.
• Regional Engagements: India actively participates in regional initiatives and organizations to promote stability and cooperation. It engages in platforms such as SAARC, BIMSTEC, IORA, and ASEAN-led mechanisms, fostering regional integration, connectivity, and addressing common challenges.
• Balancing Major Powers: India skillfully navigates its relationships with major powers like the United States, Russia, China, and others. It seeks to maximize its benefits while safeguarding its national interests and maintaining strategic autonomy. This approach allows India to leverage opportunities and manage any potential risks associated with these relationships.
• Counterterrorism Cooperation: India collaborates with various countries and international organizations in the fight against terrorism. It shares intelligence, strengthens border security, and promotes cooperation to combat terrorist networks and extremist ideologies.
• Economic Diplomacy: India actively engages in economic diplomacy, expanding trade and investment ties with different countries and regions. It participates in regional and global economic forums, negotiates trade agreements, and fosters economic cooperation, contributing to its growth and development objectives.
• Global Governance Reforms: India advocates for reforms in global governance institutions to reflect contemporary realities. It seeks a more inclusive and representative international order, including reforms in the United Nations Security Council and international financial institutions.

Challenges and Potential Disruptions India’s skillful balancing act

• Regional Conflicts: Ongoing regional conflicts, such as the India-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir, pose a challenge to India’s balancing act. Escalations or incidents along the border can strain relationships with neighboring countries and divert attention from broader multilateral engagements.
• Geopolitical Rivalries: The intensifying geopolitical rivalries, particularly between major powers like the United States, China, and Russia, can complicate India’s balancing efforts. India needs to navigate these rivalries carefully to avoid being drawn into conflicts or aligning too closely with any particular power.
• Border Security Concerns: India shares borders with countries like China and Pakistan, which have witnessed periodic tensions and border disputes. Any escalation or security threats along these borders can disrupt India’s diplomatic engagements and require a reevaluation of its strategic priorities.
• Terrorism and Security Challenges: India faces persistent terrorism threats, both domestically and regionally. Terrorist attacks or security challenges can divert resources and attention, affecting India’s capacity to fully engage in multilateral forums and initiatives.
• Economic Vulnerabilities: India’s economic vulnerabilities, including issues such as trade imbalances, supply chain disruptions, and global economic downturns, can impact its ability to maintain a balanced foreign policy. Economic challenges may require India to reassess its priorities and engagements with various countries.
• Domestic Political Considerations: Domestic political developments and public opinion can shape India’s foreign policy decisions. Changes in government, electoral cycles, or shifts in public sentiment can influence the direction and priorities of India’s diplomatic engagements.
• International Norms and Pressure: India may face pressure to align with certain international norms or positions, particularly on issues such as human rights, climate change, or nonproliferation. Striking a balance between international expectations and its own national interests can be a challenge
• Unforeseen Events: Unforeseen events, such as natural disasters, public health emergencies, or sudden geopolitical shifts, can disrupt India’s diplomatic engagements and require immediate attention and resources.

Conclusion

• India’s proactive engagement, pursuit of strategic partnerships, and commitment to a rules-based international order position it as a respected global actor. Its diplomatic endeavors in multilateral forums, regional initiatives, and global governance reform contribute to shaping the global discourse and addressing pressing global challenges.

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Context

• While the efficacy of multilateral cooperation is often questioned amidst the compelling the politics of force and global power politics, the world simply does not yet have any other alternative to structured cooperation. Much like the progress and relevance of multilateral cooperation, the fate of BIMSTEC too needs to contextualized in a world order that demands action and resolve.

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What is BIMSTEC?

• The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation: (BIMSTEC) is an international organisation of seven South Asian and Southeast Asian nations, housing 1.73 billion people and having a combined gross domestic product of US$4.4 trillion (2022).
• Members: The BIMSTEC member states Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand are among the countries dependent on the Bay of Bengal.

Present status of BIMSTEC

• Poor connectivity and resources: On the one hand, the geographical limits of BIMSTEC suffer from poor intra-regional connectivity which is fundamental to enhancing economic engagement; on the other, the grouping itself is beleaguered by the lack of an institutional structure, operational blueprint, and financial resources.
• New found interest: The BIMSTEC has indeed shown intent in recent years with member nations taking the first steps since the organisation’s inception towards according the latter agency, mobility, and funds.
• Most recent activities: These include the adoption of a charter that accords the grouping a legal status; a reduction in the number of priority areas from 14 to seven pillars thereby allowing for more focused engagement, the signing of memorandums on technology transfer, diplomatic training and a master plan on connectivity all of which are of import to the grouping’s future as aspirational countries in a region that has already become the gravitational centre of global geopolitics.
• Outcome of economic and political stability: The ‘renewed interest’ after remaining dormant for over two decades is attributed to the economic and political stability and growth that member states (barring Myanmar) have witnessed together with the world’s interest being directed towards the opportunities and Indo-Pacific and an increasingly hostile China.
• BIMSTEC has lot of ground to cover: As a regional organisation, the BIMSTEC is, on paper, well-positioned to gear shared efforts towards the harnessing of economic, natural, and labour potential of member nations.

Understanding the Multilateral cooperation/Multilateralism

• Hybrid rather than binary affairs: An assessment of multilateralism has to move away from binary understandings of world architectures. They are in essence, hybrid affairs, combining universal aspirations such as human rights with a more prosaic system of managed competition. This format is here to stay.
• Achieving common objectives through collective strengths: Multilateral organisations help as facilitators of regional objectives by pooling the strengths of members for advancement, as lobbying entities for regional aspirations and demands on the global stage functions which form the core purpose of these groupings. But multilateralism also suffers from its own set of drawbacks.
• Political disagreements: Perhaps the biggest limitations of multilateral engagement are ineffectiveness and becoming unwieldy as they comprise several member countries in terms of certain types of decision-making, particularly, those which are political.
• This is particularly true of large regional or global organisations, with ASEAN being the exception that proves the rule.
• Mini-laterals: To mitigate this challenge, smaller and more focused undertakings began in recent years in the form of mini-lateral engagement to enable smaller, and more ‘like-minded’ nations to band together for function-based cooperation.
• BBIN as an example: In the South Asian region, an example of mini-lateral engagement is the BBIN sub-regional framework which has, however, because of the operational complexities, continued to struggle.

What should be the way forward?

• Addressing the illegal migration: Multilateral forums also allow for united articulations of challenges unique to particular regions. Among the BIMSTEC’s common challenges are irregular migration, environmental degradation, transnational crimes, terrorism and insurgencies and drug trafficking, the efforts towards the mitigation of many of which, particularly the issue of migration and climate action, need the involvement of the world’s major powers.
• Support through G20 presidency: India’s G20 presidency in 2023 offers a unique opportunity to leverage New Delhi’s enhanced position in global politics to usher support for BIMSTEC’s necessities and objectives.
• Intent is stronger than hurdles: The success of groupings be it large or small rests on intent shown by members regardless of operational, financial, political or institutional constraints.
• Finance, institutions and structure: A grouping that comprised members from what is frequently referred to as the least integrated region in the world, without sufficient financing, and devoid of institutional structures to guide its operations, there has been much to be concerned about regarding BIMSTEC. And yet, because the grouping has demonstrated intent, so far, BIMSTEC’s promise holds more sway than its impediments.

Conclusion

• BIMSTEC have suffered from lack of funding, dedicated institution and proper structuring of the grouping. Hopefully new mini-laterals (BBIN) will revive the BIMSTEC in much objective stronger and successful way. India should take the lead in revival of this multilateral forum.

Mains Question

Q. Analyze the present status of BIMSTEC. What are the weaknesses of BIMSTEC and suggest way forward?

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