Mentor’s Comment

India’s celebrated demographic dividend, once viewed as a sure path to prosperity, is at risk of turning into a demographic time bomb. The article highlights how an outdated education system, misaligned curricula, lack of skilling, and the AI-driven disruption are threatening the employability of millions of young Indians. With over 800 million citizens below 35, the stakes are immense: India’s future growth, social stability, and global aspirations hinge on whether this youth bulge is transformed into an asset or left to fester as a liability.

Introduction

Demographic dividend refers to the economic growth potential that arises when a country has a larger share of its population in the working-age group compared to dependents. It is essentially the window of opportunity where youth can drive productivity, innovation, and national prosperity. India today stands at such a pivotal moment, with more than half of its population below the age of 35. This unprecedented youth bulge offers a chance to accelerate growth, but whether it becomes a dividend or a disaster depends entirely on how well the country equips its people with education, skills, and employability.

The scale of India’s demographic challenge

1. Youth bulge: Over 800 million people under 35, one of the world’s largest youth populations.
2. Graduate glut: India produces millions of graduates annually, but many remain underemployed or unemployable.
3. Engineering crisis: 40–50% of engineering graduates in the last decade were not placed in jobs.
4. Employability gap: According to Mercer-Mettl (2025), only 43% of graduates are job-ready.

The impact of Artificial Intelligence on jobs and employability

1. Automation threat: McKinsey projects 70% of jobs in India could be impacted by automation by 2030.
2. Task replacement: Nearly 30% of current job tasks will be automated globally.
3. Job churn: World Economic Forum (WEF) predicts 170 million new jobs by 2030, but 92 million displaced in the same period.
4. Urgency: India’s curriculum runs on 3-year cycles, too slow compared to fast-moving technology disruptions.

The roots of the education–employment mismatch in schools

1. Career ignorance: 93% of students (Classes 8–12) are aware of only 7 traditional careers (doctor, engineer, lawyer, teacher).
2. Career options: The modern economy offers 20,000+ career paths.
3. Guidance gap: Only 7% of students receive formal career guidance.
4. Wrong fit: 65% of high school graduates pursue degrees not aligned with their aptitude or market demand.

The shortcomings of India’s skilling missions

1. Skill India shortfall: Aimed to train 400 million individuals by 2022, but fell short.
2. Fragmented approach: Policies such as Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY), Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Kendras (PMKK), Jan Shikshan Sansthan (JSS), Pradhan Mantri Yuva Yojana (PMYY), Skills Acquisition and Knowledge Awareness for Livelihood Promotion (SANKALP), and the Prime Minister’s Internship Scheme have been launched, but they often function in silos without effective integration.
3. Funding without impact: Large-scale spending has not yielded industry-ready graduates.
4. Need of the hour: Cohesive, industry-aligned national skilling strategy.

The risks of neglecting the demographic crisis

1. Economic setback: Risk of educated but unemployable workforce undermining India’s growth.
2. Social unrest: Historical precedent in the Mandal protests of 1990, where youth frustration erupted violently.
3. Paradox at scale: As Lant Pritchett noted in Where Has All the Education Gone?, mere schooling without employability worsens the crisis.
4. Civilizational risk: The crisis is not just about jobs, but about the social contract between state and youth.

Conclusion

India stands at a crossroads. The very youth once seen as its greatest strength may become its Achilles’ heel if the education–employment gap remains unaddressed. The AI revolution makes this transition even more urgent. With the right mix of foresight, reforms, and collaboration between government, private sector, and academia, India can convert its youth bulge into a global competitive advantage. The clock is ticking, the dividend must be harnessed before it explodes into a time bomb.

PYQ Linkage

[UPSC 2016] “Demographic Dividend in India will remain only theoretical unless our manpower becomes more educated, aware, skilled and creative.” What measures have been taken by the government to enhance the capacity of our population to be more productive and employable?

Linkage: The question emphasizes that India’s demographic dividend will remain theoretical without real improvements in education, awareness, skills, and creativity. This connects with the fact that, despite schemes like Skill India Mission, PMKVY, NEP 2020 and SANKALP, a large share of graduates remain unemployable — with only 43% job-ready and 40–50% of engineering graduates jobless — underscoring the urgent need for aligning skilling with industry demands.

Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor for UPSC 2024

Attend Now